EDIT 20/1/07: For updated stats up to Show 362 refer to this thread in the stats section:

http://dond.co.uk/forum/viewtopic.php?p=242236#242236

Shows 1-252

There has been a lot of debate about whether it is better to deal at the 8 box stage or the 5 box stage or even wait for the 2 box stage. Here are some interesting stats that might settle this:

In the 252 shows currently aired to today, how many times has the banker's offer increased at the 5 box stage from the 8 box stage offer (hypothetical proveout offers included) ?

Answer: 168 which is exactly 2/3 of all shows.

In 252 shows how many times has the banker's offer increased at the 2 box stage from the 5 box stage offer (hypothetical proveout offers included) ?

Answer: 99 which is 39.2% of all shows.

Conclusion: Obviously, you have to play the boards on it's merits, and decide how much risk you want to take, but mostly, that extra bit of courage seems to pay off, but is it foolish to be too much of a gambler?

This is fairly predictable, really, if you work on the premise that keeping the top valued box will increase the offer, but losing it will decrease it. The chance that the biggest box left will be avoided between offer-of-8 and offer-of-5 is 62.5% (close to 2/3), and between offer-of-5 and offer-of-2 is 40% (which is very close to that 39.2%).

That's quite interesting actually, seeing just how close that correlation is.

I'd certainly work on deal-of-5 being the time to go under our format.

A lot of the deal-of-11 offers in my opinion have been very attractive lately, and a lot of the time, sure enough they gamble and end up with a small fraction of it. Thought it probably happens less regularly than I imagine!

Maybe if they only allowed millionaires to be the contestants, then for them £250,000 would be the only meaningful life changing amount, so they would not deal any offers, they could all afford to be major gamblers, and we would very soon see our first Quarter of a Million Winner!

We would be looking at the best. Game. Ever. If a millionaire came on the show.

Well, not really. Presumably, they would never have much of a decision to make, and part of the appeal of the show is watching people make difficult decisions. Someone just going to the end regardless with no intention of dealing would probably make for a pretty crap show, in my opinion.

That's right. You may as well just ask the player to take their box, open it, and that's their prize. The whole thing would be over in less than a minute.

Plus, even if they did win £250,000, they wouldn't give a toss as they were rich anyway.

*laughs hysterically*

The whole fun of the show is indeed difficult decisions! That's why I hate badly-pitched offers, whether they're too low or too high, with a passion.