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redrum666

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:49 pm    Author: redrum666    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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I suspect a deal here, simply because the prospect of a knowing banker must seriously be getting to her on such a powerful board...

The fact that the offer is £25,000, which isn't too high or too low, makes me think she's got one of the top 2 in her box... and I reckon, based on that, it's the £100,000.

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cookie_monster

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:49 pm    Author: cookie_monster    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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I'd NO DEAL!

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:50 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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The others think it's a double bluff and they advise a deal. Dave reminds Em of those who had high numbers in their boxes on the table. She asks for a sweep and for Em, they mostly say DEAL. She also asks her husband for some advice, and she says she's ready for the question... banker phones... he says she should listen to those who were advising her to DEAL.

Banker's NEW offer

Banker's offer:

£28,000

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matthew17

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:50 pm    Author: matthew17    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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...

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Tom22

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:50 pm    Author: Tom22    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07

Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 12:12 pm
Warnings: 0
Stats after Round 5
Offer: £28,000
Mean: £70,601.02
Offer (%): 39.66%
Fair Deal: £30,523.75
Cash left on board: £353,005.10
Volatility: 2.43
Board balance: 6

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1ST. Capello's Cupakes 1288
2nd. Stubbsy's Sizzlers 1286
3rd. Toms Shrews III 1221
Top Scorer this week - dondsters 147 Worst scorer this week - Adium United 33
Bottom - Hammond's Heroes 766
(After Gameweek 22)


Last edited by Tom22 on Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:51 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:51 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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Interesting thoughts from red...

...I wouldn't want to Deal this. 40% of the mean in a two-box game. But with this much money and - actually that's probably the big reason to Deal. The two-box offer is almost certain to be a joke unless it's the dream finish. That, in turn, makes it a LOT less valuable to play on at five-box, especially as on a £100k-high final two the swap will not be offered if there's £100k on the wings.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
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Goldeneye

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:51 pm    Author: Goldeneye    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07

Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:37 am
Location: Boston, MA, USA
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30% chance of disaster
30% chance of a stick
30% chance of a £50k-£70k offer or so
10% chance of oh, about £170k

I'd no deal here

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In the audience for Den's (2-Mar-2009, Show #974), Hannah's (3-Mar-2009, Show #975) and Rich's (4-Mar-2009, Show #976) episodes.
Probably the only non-UKer to be in the audience ever...


Last edited by Goldeneye on Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:52 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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redrum666

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:51 pm    Author: redrum666    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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Ok... although I'd no deal, I'd now believe that there is a low amount in the box because of the offer increase- he's trying too hard to make her think he's lying about the low value...

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:51 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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Noel says this is a very rare situation...

Em DEALS

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wkd

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:52 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07

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That'll settle it. Though I have to say she's surely got a big amount. The banker would have to play a a very deep game to offer that high if she's got a blue or the three grand.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:52 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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OK, now I'm more comfortable Dealing. That's about what I'd take in a normal three-box situation, which this is not.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Tom22

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:53 pm    Author: Tom22    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07

Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 12:12 pm
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redrum666 wrote:
Ok... although I'd no deal, I'd now believe that there is a low amount in the box because of the offer increase- he's trying too hard to make her think he's lying about the low value...


Haha that little bit from the banker made me think the complete opposite... I'm so confused :ponder:


Well £100k has gone so only one big one left...

_________________
Image
1ST. Capello's Cupakes 1288
2nd. Stubbsy's Sizzlers 1286
3rd. Toms Shrews III 1221
Top Scorer this week - dondsters 147 Worst scorer this week - Adium United 33
Bottom - Hammond's Heroes 766
(After Gameweek 22)


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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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13 - Wendy - £100,000

15 - Emma - £3,000

4 - Val - £5

Banker time with 10p and £250,000 remaining

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matthew17

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:54 pm    Author: matthew17    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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EEK :( :(

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Mark

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:54 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07

Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 2:09 am
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Argh... oh dear. She should have not dealt.


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Goldeneye

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:54 pm    Author: Goldeneye    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07

Joined: Tue Aug 15, 2006 2:37 am
Location: Boston, MA, USA
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£56,000 offer here?

_________________
In the audience for Den's (2-Mar-2009, Show #974), Hannah's (3-Mar-2009, Show #975) and Rich's (4-Mar-2009, Show #976) episodes.
Probably the only non-UKer to be in the audience ever...


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:54 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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Could this be a Banker's Gamble? With the Banker knowing where the money is I wouldn't be shocked!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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matthew17

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:55 pm    Author: matthew17    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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The laugh from the banker explained it all. She must have it. :(

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:55 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07
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Banker can be heard laughing down the phone and Em starts crying :(

Banker's offer would've been:

£120,000
:shock: :shock: :shock: :shock: :shock:

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Tom22

PostPosted: Tue Jul 22, 2008 4:55 pm    Author: Tom22    Post subject: Re: Em 22/07

Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 12:12 pm
Warnings: 0
Stats after Round 6
Offer: £120,000
Mean: £125,000.05
Offer (%): 96.00%
Fair Deal: £62,579.08
Cash left on board: £250,000.10
Volatility: 2500000.00
Board balance: 1

Board
10p

£250,000

Guide to Stats

:shock: :shock: :shock:

_________________
Image
1ST. Capello's Cupakes 1288
2nd. Stubbsy's Sizzlers 1286
3rd. Toms Shrews III 1221
Top Scorer this week - dondsters 147 Worst scorer this week - Adium United 33
Bottom - Hammond's Heroes 766
(After Gameweek 22)


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