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Tom22

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 5:03 pm    Author: Tom22    Post subject:

Joined: Sat Jun 17, 2006 12:12 pm
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Bit of a mixed game there, the offer every correct prediciton was quite a good quirk I thought, as it wasnt over used. I'd have gone at either £25,000 or £19,500 but £14,000 is a great amount to win and a game that technically wasnt a banker win but still was a pretty negative ending.

Well Done Rich!

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Ben Miller 176

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 5:08 pm    Author: Ben Miller 176    Post subject:

Joined: Fri May 12, 2006 9:38 pm
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Well done Rich!


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iainmacn

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 5:23 pm    Author: iainmacn    Post subject:

Joined: Sun Mar 25, 2007 7:57 pm
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Wow - another down ending. That £25k offer really showed up how lousy Kelsie's £26k offer was yesterday on a signfiicantly better board :(

Enjoy the money Rich - your mystical powers have given me a lot of laughs the last couple of weeks! :)


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JO!

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 6:19 pm    Author: JO!    Post subject:
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Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2007 11:58 pm
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Well done Rich, I'm sure £14,000 and come in handy for the house! Gonna miss you on the wings! :-D

lol Joanne x


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little_monster

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 6:23 pm    Author: little_monster    Post subject:

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Ninth banker win in a row.

If you count Nigel and Rich as losses because they would have swapped, and the blue wins as losses even though the banker didn't get anything in return for the box.


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22identicalboxes

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 6:28 pm    Author: 22identicalboxes    Post subject:

Joined: Wed Jun 21, 2006 9:27 pm
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Urgh, I hate post-Deal swaps. I really don't know where I'd have dealt today. Well done Rich!


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basicasic

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 6:52 pm    Author: basicasic    Post subject:
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I thought the deal was spot on. He took a chance when the board still had big money available rather than make a safe deal then bailed out with a decent amount rather than chance going home with peanuts.

A blend of courage and sense. Well done Rich.

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Dond-knight

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 7:00 pm    Author: Dond-knight    Post subject:
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Joined: Wed Dec 13, 2006 9:41 pm
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Enjoy the Money!


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 7:10 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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And I'd have gone at £17,000 without a doubt. Very, very odd game.

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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 7:28 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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Contestants. Please. Stop swapping after dealing, it produces a bad outcome whichever way you look at it.

In all honesty, a lot of the time I don't believe the "I would have swapped" claims are genuine. It's all too easy to say that when you're sitting there knowing you're going home with a good amount. I mean would Nigel and Rich really have risked doing the worst swap in the history of the game by swapping a Power 5 for a low blue (which I would consider worse than Barbara)? Would Bunney have risked looking a total prat by swapping away the quarter-million? Candice and Nev were the worst ones as they dealt before the last two, and said they would have dealt the final offer, so why swap when they would have dealt anyway?

I agree that it was an odd game - the £17k was close enough to the mean for me to have walked at that stage, and I would have taken £25k for sure. He just seemed to go on until faced with all or peanuts. I guess he was fortunate in some way that of his two numbers he wanted a leave (17 and 19), he picked the right one - he'd have won a lot less if he'd left 17!

Can we please have an OPW soon (without a swap)? :)

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James1978

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 7:55 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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Actually I would have dealt the £17k come to think about it - the only way I would envisage getting a higher offer (in a conventional 3 box round), would be to avoid all 3 of the biggies - a chance of (8/11*7/10*6/9) - 56 in 165 (approx 1 in 3). Even hitting the £35k would leave a nasty uncomfortable gap between £75k and £5k.

But I';ve just realised he had Box 15 containing £10, so is automatically great (Harry had it!). :D

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Tom

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 8:09 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject:

Joined: Wed May 24, 2006 11:15 am
Location: Suffolk. That's as detailed as I'm going..
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Well done Rich!!!

(I hate those hypothetical swaps..)


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cookie_monster

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 8:46 pm    Author: cookie_monster    Post subject:
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Well done Rich - enjoy the cash!

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crazyeddie

PostPosted: Tue Mar 27, 2007 11:53 pm    Author: crazyeddie    Post subject:
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Joined: Mon May 01, 2006 7:44 pm
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I didn't see the game, but the idea of receiving a call when guessing the amount is intriguing.

If the banker had only rung when the guess was correct, then the odds of the player receiving no offers during the game is 21/22 * 20/21 * 19/20 ... 3/4 * 2/3, which is 9.09%, or exactly 1/11.

I like the idea, but there would be some games where only a few offers are made, which would be more luck-based and less entertaining. A one-off show like this could work, though.

Also, at the 5 box stage, the odds of receiving no offer is 4/5 * 3/4 * 2/3, or 40%. Could be useful as a deterrent to a player playing on after making an offer.


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 1:28 am    Author: KP    Post subject:
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In fact, chances are very few offers would be made - the expected number of offers would be 1/22 + 1/21... + 1/3 = 2.19 (to 2dp).

Using it for just the final round might work though. I make it a 40% chance of no offers, a 43.33% chance of one offer, a 15% chance of two and a 1.66% (1 in 60) chance of a Ned-style three-offer salvo.

Incidentally, if they want to add an extra twist vaguely along the lines of the 'Banker will give £250 to every player if the 1p goes in this round' twist he's done before, they could introduce prediction bonuses for those on the wings - a flat £500 per player would be expected to cost just £(500*2.19)=£1,095 for the game, and that's nothing compared to the increased cost per game of the LTL in the last six months!

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
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Robstriker

PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 8:29 am    Author: Robstriker    Post subject: !

Joined: Wed Dec 27, 2006 4:02 pm
Location: Yorkshire
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Thanks everyone for your kind comments.

Hope you thought my game was okay!

Rich

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Chris_M

PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 12:22 pm    Author: Chris_M    Post subject: Re: !

Joined: Mon Jan 22, 2007 5:33 pm
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Robstriker wrote:
Thanks everyone for your kind comments.

Hope you thought my game was okay!

Rich


No! It simply wasn't good enough!

Go back and do it again, and again and again and..........

:P :-D

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 1:11 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
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Hmm, an interesting game... not sure I really got into his game - there are some games where I feel like that and I'm never sure why... I just think there was too much emphasis placed on the psychic stuff - although Noel at one point did ask Rich to stop if he felt that he was getting distracted by it... what would've happened if Rich had predicted every box after the first offer correctly? Would we have really had loads of offers? :shock: However, it was an interesting twist and good to see it wasn't over-used, although that was probably thanks to Rich not predicting them right and so not getting too many extra offers... hmm, I wonder how many "fake psychics" we'll get now, who hope they can get a game like Rich's with extra offers...

I'd have dealt the £25,000 myself as I thought it would have been a bit too risky to carry on. I did love it when Rich said if his mum were there, she'd tell him to "Deal or die"... and then they cut to a shot of Di! :lol:

Interesting to notice that Noel didn't mention how he could've got more if he'd dealt earlier - imagine if the game had been played differently, and Rich had dealt at £14,000, then went on to get offers of £19,000 and £25,000, then to reveal he could've won £35,000 - Noel would be furious!

It was nice to see Rich not get carried away by the Chantelle / Nigel effects of having a blue vs £35,000 situation and £14,000 was a good offer for the board and a good deal - Fadil last April got £7,200 on a 1p vs £35k finish - the 1p probably being the reason his offer was so low due to the banker's fixation with it still being on the board!

Enjoy the money, Rich!


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Leila_x

PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 4:12 pm    Author: Leila_x    Post subject: Re: !

Joined: Fri Mar 23, 2007 7:29 pm
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Robstriker wrote:
Thanks everyone for your kind comments.

Hope you thought my game was okay!

Rich


Well done =].
But yeah... what Chris said.

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flamedtresses

PostPosted: Wed Mar 28, 2007 7:57 pm    Author: flamedtresses    Post subject:
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great game Rich. hope you enjoy the £14k. I probably would have dealt when you did.
Was you nervous on your game? you kept picking up your drink and I do that when im nervous lol. anyway well done :)

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