Stats after Round 6
Offer: £3,000
Mean: £7,500.01
Fair Deal: £3,756.13
Board total: £15,000.01

Board
1p
£15,000

Noel pulls the seal (while singing) on Kelvin's Box 1 and reveals £15,000

Alice with Box 11 has the 1p

good win depite the poor singing

Actually, you're confusing two different things.

For the sake of argument, let's say all we care about is having the power 5. For a single game, there is a 5/22 = 22.7% chance of having a power 5 figure in your box. If you take four games at random, but especially without knowing what was in the box for each game, there is a (5/22)^4 = 0.27% chance of having power 5 figures in each of those four boxes.

However, say you take four consecutive games at random and you know that you had power 5 figures in the first three of those games. The chances of having power 5 figures in all four of those games is now the chance of having a power 5 figure in game 4: 5/22 = 22.7%. Why so high? Because you know what you had the first three games, so it no longer plays a factor into the chances calculation.

If three days ago you had predicted four consecutive power 5 figures, the probability of that happening would've been 0.27%. But to predict a fourth consecutive power 5 figure after having it three times is now 22.7%.

To throw this into the probabilistic notation I learned in my probability class:
P(power 5 figures in four games) = 0.27%.
P(power 5 figures in four games | power 5 figures in the first three) = 22.7%.

Didn't see much of today's show, but a very good result considering some of what we've seen lately. And I very much doubt the 5th offer would've gone up.

Most significant part of this game? Return of the inflated proveout offer. Maybe, just maybe, Glenn does want to snap this run after all.

I was sure it'd be a stick.

Kelvin, Kelvin, Kelvin............................



He made it clear to the Banker that he wasn't going to take the super derisory offers he has been making lately, forcing him to actually make a GOOD offer for a change. And dealing it was very sensible as odds were that 1 of the Top 2 would go in the next round and the offer wouldn't go up much even if it was the £250,000. Excellent Dealing, Kelvin.

Who are you and what have you done with ACB?

Again, what I hated about many of the Deals in this period is that so many were for HORRIBLE offers for the board, which wasn't the case today. Had he dealt, say, the £10,000 that the Banker would offer the average cautious player on that board in this era, I'd definitely bring out the rolling eyes (as he wouldn't have squandered enough money for me to do an IF ONLY moment). He played the game the game how ALL players in this era should have, not giving the Banker too many hints that he was cautious and enough hints that he would not take a ridiculously derisory offer.

Interesting that Kelvin and Cindy had the same offers at 8-box and 5-box, yet their boards were very different!

The singing bits got a bit tiresome after a while, although they did at least provide a bit of comic relief during the tense fourth round.

£26k at 5-box maybe was a bit inflated - I could just about believe the offer going up a little as it would have been a brave move turning down that £19k offer, but a £7k jump seemed unlikely.

Finally, for those mentioning Ste having a lot of big numbers - at the end of the day, when Ste's game arrives, he'll have first pick of the balls, so he's just as likely to choose another big red as he is a low blue.

And he still would if he didn't!