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KP

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:06 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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We're back.

The Banker thinks he's got this...

Banker's offer:

£14,000

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Mark

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:06 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate

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Great offer. She's dealing most likely.


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hogwild94

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:06 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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£14,000?! Very sensible deal here if she does!

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:06 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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£14k is enough for me here because taking out one of top 2 won't give an offer that high.

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BankerSpanker

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:08 pm    Author: BankerSpanker    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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Seriously worth considering £14,000 here. With the board being 4-4, you just don't know which way it will go.

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hogwild94

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:08 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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Watching this with my Dad. He just said, of the players-in-waiting, 'is their job to state to obvious?' :lol:

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:09 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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As BankerSpanker hinted earlier, it was a double.

Other plans for the big money - mortgage reduction. Her nephew asks if £14,000 would get all of it. She merely says it's a lot of money. He falls into the "never see that again" advice trope.

David indirectly says that she won't see a £14k offer on a £75k-high 5-box. Jean throws in the "real money" line. Myyles points out the £100k might be on the table and thinks people forget about the possibility of that, which seems mildly surprising.

Kate says NO DEAL.

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hogwild94

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:09 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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Hmm, well, fair play to her. Lets hope for a decent bailout next time.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:09 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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BankerSpanker wrote:
Seriously worth considering £14,000 here. With the board being 4-4, you just don't know which way it will go.


It's a 3-box game. The £1k is as disposible as the high blues.

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Mark

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:09 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate

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:shock: :shock: :shock: That's very brave...

we may be on for an OHO here as most people would have taken that with not much of a fallback.


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cfd

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:10 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate

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Certainly a brave no deal. I'd be dealing there as aside from the all blue round I don't see much scope for the offer to increase but plenty to knock it down.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:11 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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I think we are heading to putting Kate in the "gambling old lady" category.

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:11 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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We are in 2007 mode, ladies and gentlemen!

ROUND 5
She's not looking. Linda calls it a "very brave decision".
Box 17 (Linda) - £1,000
A de facto blue from someone in a blue jumper.

Box 19 (newbie Danny) - £500
This is on! This is on!

I can forgive the wiggling. Noel points out that at least one will survive to 5-box, and that the offer with both will be "superb". £26k, perhaps?

Box 13 (Gaz) - £250
And the risk produces a massive reward!

Banker time...

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Mark

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:11 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate

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This offer should easily be very close to £20,000 or exactly that.


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hogwild94

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:11 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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Odds of missing both of the top two there, statsmen?

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:12 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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About 6% chance of keeping top 3 in play from 11-box to 5-box.

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KP

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:12 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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"Where are we going now?"

Does the Banker have any sense that she might be a £20k targetist rather than a real risk-oblivious player? He thinks she's not going to listen to him, evidently the latter. He still thinks she has an analytical side, but it's losing.

Banker's offer:

£24,000

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:13 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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hogwild94 wrote:
Odds of missing both of the top two there, statsmen?


5/14 (about 35.7%)

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hogwild94

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:13 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate
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Just short of the Governor. Surely, she has to deal now, with a 90% chance of hitting at least one of the top two in the final round.

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I am a respecter of the views of others, even if I disagree with them.
No ranting or offense is intended in any of my posts, unless I specify so.
Check out SLUDGE for original, non-cover rock music!


Last edited by hogwild94 on Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Mark

PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 6:13 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 13/1 Kate

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I can't see her turning down that offer... if she does, she's absolutely in OHO.


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