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Mark

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:41 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy

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Banker playing mind games again..... or so what it seems.


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Charles

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:41 pm    Author: Charles    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy

Joined: Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:56 pm
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BankerSpanker wrote:
I'm not surprised there's so few hands up. A £5k increase from that round with 2 of the LOWEST blues was poor.

So what could the offer be now? £25 - £30k? Governor perhaps?


No, the increase is understandable because certainly the previous offers were more than what can be expected. The increase from the previous offer does not change how good the offer is in relation to the board.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:43 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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We're back, with the fourth offer still being considered and the Banker planning his twist...

Here we go. The question: Is she worried about a Power 5 being on the table? He'll make the offer £25,000 if she deals and has a Power 5 on the table.

"Does that soften the regret?" Noel thinks it would "completely" do so for a lot of people. Rob points out the top two. Was that pilgrims cheering for her to go on?

Carl says the Banker is worried. The Banker is worried - he's lying about the odds, "40%" of the £250k going in round 5. He says that people have "seen stupidity rewarded" in Scott's game and claims he is trying to "do her a favour" by discouraging her from "letting the occasion get the better of her".

Mandy says NO DEAL

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Mark

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:44 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy

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Very brave for turning that down, hopefully it was the correct choice.


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matt26

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:47 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy

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That twist meant that the offer's EV went up to £21,875. Still not enough of an increase for the round she'd had.


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Mark

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:47 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy

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£26,000? Hopefully she will see a greater chance of a red being in the box, though, she probably will deal at whatever this offer is.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:47 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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Round 5

The Banker was very sincere, according to Noel, who thinks Mandy is in a vulnerable position now.

Tom says he's due a red, but Mandy ignores him...

Box 9 (Tom) - £100,000

Big pilgrim groans. Mandy seemed to swear quietly there! "What have I done?" she asks softly.

Box 1 (Julia) - £50

Noel is talking down the 5-box offer even if this is blue, and says that this must be blue "or you did make a mistake"! He's in inverse proveout mode!! He's doing a full-on guilt trip for the No Deal!!

Box 12 (Aleks) - £10 :D

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In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:48 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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Banker time... he's shocked at two blues going, and is worried that she's now going to have self-belief. Code for recklessness, in his book?

He's now offering the certain higher offer from last time...

Banker's offer:

£25,000

_________________
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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Charles

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:48 pm    Author: Charles    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy

Joined: Fri Jun 22, 2012 4:56 pm
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matt26 wrote:
That twist meant that the offer's EV went up to £21,875. Still not enough of an increase for the round she'd had.


You have to take into account that the previous offers were more than what can be expected, and so you cannot expect such a big increase.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:50 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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Mandy seeks advice from the wings but Calvert says that it's her call in the end. "Do you feel lucky?" "I don't know." Tom says the odds are against her now. "Is it worth taking that risk again?" Ady says her reaction to the £100k - "what have I done?" - was telling.

Noel goes all psychological and asks her to quietly think about the decision before he asks her the question. She's spending it with the company of a tissue...

The question is asked, and Mandy says DEAL

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Mark

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:52 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy

Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 2:09 am
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Yes... a spanking! :D


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:52 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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"Honestly, we are in the presence of royalty. You are the queen of indecision!"

Round 6 (proveout)

21 would have stayed to the end.

Box 11 (Mark) - £250,000 :-D

Box 22 (Stan) - £1,000

Box 18 (Ben, newbie) - £50,000 :-D

Banker time with £100 and £5,000 remaining...

_________________
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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:53 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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The Banker says her 8-box No Deal showed she had guts, but her 5-box Deal showed she had brains!

Banker's offer would've been:

£1,500

_________________
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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:54 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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Noel opens Mandy's box 14 and reveals £100

Mike with box 21 had £5,000

Mandy says that she's been renting for nine years with Rob, so buying a house might be one thing she does with the money.

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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hogwild94

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:55 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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Good result to start the week. Well done Mandy. :smt023

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BankerSpanker

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:56 pm    Author: BankerSpanker    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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"I've never known the Banker do that before." Err... Noel are you forgetting what he did with that £30k deal? *facepalm*

That gimmick at 8-box was stupid. If it was £25k without that nonsense she would've probably dealt that easily.

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hogwild94

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 4:58 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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Oh, and thank you to KP for filling in today! :smt023

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 5:03 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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Right, off-commentary remarks.

I'd have gone on and crashed with those offers, although I may have got higher ones. I thought £20k was a bit low as Donna's board was weaker, drew a stronger offer, and I considered her £21k to be marginal even when I was a student, which I'm not anymore. Would have hoped for more than £25k at 5-box too, but there was a definite case for taking it, and she would certainly have had a massive regret if she hadn't.

Two-bed houses in Basildon go for around £140k, three-bed houses for not much more; £25k would be a reasonable deposit, though if either her or Rob had a few grand more in savings they'd be able to get to the all-important 20% deposit mark which would significantly help them with getting a mortgage. I can't comment on the cost of the other things they want to do.

I liked her more than I had any right to like a TOWIE-quoting young woman from the place where I had some of the worst memories of my life a few years ago. This is setting the bar very, very low, mind you. :P

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 5:15 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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What a way to kick off the week with a well deserved OPW! The 8-box offer would make anyone deal but she wanted to give that Banker a spanking and she sure did by towards the end. Nicely done there from Mandy.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Mon Aug 27, 2012 5:22 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 27/8 Mandy
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Saw this live without any spreadsheets or FD calculators to hand and I think the banker's words at the end were correct. £25k was probably a couple of grand short of what I would have wanted but 30% chance of crashing to £5k at most would probably have just about scared me into the deal. It was the right decision for her.

(And if you think Mandy was indecisive, you haven't seen anything yet).

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