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Mark

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 5:54 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline

Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 2:09 am
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IF only the last two players played the game exactly the way she played it today.......(without the swap for yesterday)


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BankerSpanker

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 5:59 pm    Author: BankerSpanker    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline
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Yes, yes, YES!! This is the kind of game we have been waiting for! All those so called 'lifelines' were crap. Well done to Caroline for getting all the way to 2-box with £250k intact! And yes, I would've taken £95k straight away.

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Mark

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 6:00 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline

Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 2:09 am
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It's gone to the WORST game of the month (Toni) ... then the WORST DEAL of the month (Elaine) to the BEST game of the month (Caroline).

She played the game exactly the way it should.


Last edited by Mark on Wed Nov 30, 2011 6:02 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 6:00 pm    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline

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What a difference an hour makes! All those people who slated me for saying yesterdays £10k deal was a pup must surely realise my reasons! Caroline just showed bravery plain and simple. I'm happy to congratulate her for that.

So much for the consistency with not offering the hypo swap with £250k on the board in previous two games. Now all the 'team player' will be crowing she did the right thing with the swap. If Noel hadn't offered it it would have been two massive OBWs back to back. Im saying make if fair for both sides.

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BankerSpanker

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 6:02 pm    Author: BankerSpanker    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline
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I think we all know what game of the month will be! :D

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hogwild94

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 6:06 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline
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BankerSpanker wrote:
I think we all know what game of the month will be! :D


Agreed! An awesome game made even better by the fact I could watch it live, as I'm at home due to these pesky strikes! :lol: :D

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 6:23 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline
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beaker wrote:
I'm convinced that the producers knew the £250k was on the table, hence the 2 offers at 4 box and 3 box and the big offer at 2 box.

OK the hypo-swap paid off for her I guess


Agreed, but not for that reason. The six-box break (which would have been called in the studio at that point, yes?) was a horrendous sign. They wanted time for the confetti, and I would have made two completely out-of-character decisions at the end (ND at £95k, no swap) to get it.

Suspect that she would have dealt earlier in other circumstances too - her own situation suggested she probably made the wrong call at 3-box given the 1/3 disaster chance. For her, that is. Outcome bias must not let us forget she went all-in at stakes she couldn't afford to do that on.

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BankerSpanker

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 6:31 pm    Author: BankerSpanker    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline
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Did anyone notice the £50k disappearing from the board even though a box hadn't been opened?
Someone in editing needs to be fired! :P

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oldbus

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 8:02 pm    Author: oldbus    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline
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Wow, a great game - really tense. I was convinced she would go at 35k and I wouldn't have blamed her if she had, given how she described her circumstances. I was really worried she might take one of the following offers which I felt were worse considering the board.

I was impressed with her hubby's advice - not giving her any 'feeling' nonsense, just telling her to ignore the banker's wiles and play her own game.

Go :banana: :D


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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 9:05 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
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norwichdonder wrote:
What a difference an hour makes! All those people who slated me for saying yesterdays £10k deal was a pup must surely realise my reasons! Caroline just showed bravery plain and simple. I'm happy to congratulate her for that.

So much for the consistency with not offering the hypo swap with £250k on the board in previous two games. Now all the 'team player' will be crowing she did the right thing with the swap. If Noel hadn't offered it it would have been two massive OBWs back to back. Im saying make if fair for both sides.


You're right about the hypo swap but to be honest given the fact she had £95k anyway, I wouldn't have cared in the slightest even if the £250k had been in whichever box Noel had had opened as "the one which would have been yours if you'd gone all the way"! (Unlike some)! :)

Great result but I can't help thinking she gambled way past her comfort zone, obviously you have to do that in this game to achieve sums like £95k (unless you get a once in a lifetime board like Suzanne), but I dread to think how horrible that might have been and how badly she might have taken it had it gone wrong and it had been 10p on the table instead!

Guess we need that to liven things up though!

BTW is that the first time ever a 5-figure sum beginning in 9 has been won? I know of two £90k offers declined before (Daniel and Joycey)!

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hogwild94

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 10:03 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline
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James1978 wrote:
BTW is that the first time ever a 5-figure sum beginning in 9 has been won? I know of two £90k offers declined before (Daniel and Joycey)!


Amazingly, it is!

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Check out SLUDGE for original, non-cover rock music!


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taff

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 10:55 pm    Author: taff    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline

Joined: Wed Dec 12, 2007 7:14 pm
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what a fantastic game! watched it on catchup and realised it must have been a big win when they only put the adverts on at the 3rd break.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Wed Nov 30, 2011 10:58 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
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Well that probably puts to bed the conspiracy theorists who go on about long-runners having the QM in the box the game before they play. Yesterday she had the 1p, today the QM
(and for the record, if I'm around live for a game and someone mentions how much the player had the day before, I'm going to keep using Caroline as a counter-example)
:D

Excellent game though - how much the last 2 games influenced her taking big gambles from 5-box (especially after the £50k went). £95k would have probably been called excessive in proveout had she dealt but the 95 motif had been sown already with the predicted disaster offer and the £25,950 3-box offer. I'd have probably have wanted confirmation of the £95k offer at 3-box though.

I make it 1 in 1331 for the £250k to be in play at 2-box 3 days in a row.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2011 12:54 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
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The main difference between Caroline and Elaine wasn't bravery - it was the fact Caroline had a far stronger board. The £250k in isolation is worthless, with decent back up it's achievable.

Personally i thought (without hindsite) that Caroline should have dealt at 5 box, but I'm happy to have been proved wrong. However i am delighted that this is a mammoth win achieved through a deal and not by blindly trusting in the box.

With regards to the hyposwap I stand by what i said after Toni's game, that the figures involved made it moot, the absense from Elaine's game was a bit more questionable but it's possible it was offered and declined then cut out in editing

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willrelf

PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2011 1:00 am    Author: willrelf    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline
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Great game, and well played there by Caroline. I wouldn't quite have got there as I'd have had to have taken £25,950 at 3-box for fear of losing the £250k. £95k would have been an obvious deal had I got there though.

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RMF1254

PostPosted: Thu Dec 01, 2011 5:04 pm    Author: RMF1254    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline
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Oh, French Connection United Kingdom!!! :shock: :shock: :roll:

I decide that I'm shying away from these commentaries until the sticky period ends... and the very first game after this decision, Caroline shows that she has both the boxes and the guts, and puts herself among the top 20 DOND winners... :shock: :shock: :roll: Image 8)

And she really did have the guts - her financial situation may not have been quite as difficult as Toni's, but it certainly wasn't the furthest distance off.

What a shame, then, that the moaners on the Digital Spy forum were generally not too gone on her... Image Image :roll: :roll:

Anyway, that is indeed the very first five-figure win beginning in 9 - is it possible to calculate the odds of waiting six years and one month for one? Image

And if this is the end of the aforementioned sticky period, then boy, what an end it is.

But - dare I say it - it's not beyond possibility that it isn't, and that this game could turn out to be just a very bright flash in the pan... so I'm going to continue shying away from these commentaries for the time being... :eyes: Image Image

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mr_northern_guy

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 12:43 pm    Author: mr_northern_guy    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline

Joined: Thu Nov 19, 2009 9:26 pm
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Didn't someone win 90-oddK some years back on a Jennifer finish?


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Dec 02, 2011 1:29 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline
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£85,000.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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mr_northern_guy

PostPosted: Sat Dec 03, 2011 11:03 am    Author: mr_northern_guy    Post subject: Re: 30/11 Caroline

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I thought it was something in that range, thanks KP.


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