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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:51 pm    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony

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crumbs. I overestimated that! Thats really lowballing for a box opening gamble.

now swap or no swap?

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:52 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony
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That offer gets lots of groans from the pilgrims, and Noel tells Anthony to be carefull how he responds to the offer.

Just as Noel asks the question the Banker calls back and says that he has seen that look in Anthony's eye before, and makes a new offer.

NEW OFFER
Banker's offer:

£15,000

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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:52 pm    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony

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Mindgames. We still have another few minutes for yet another inflated offer!

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:53 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony
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£15k. More like it. I'd take it, not sure it'd be consistent with the questionable risk at £11,500 though.

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony
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Anthony says he was bordering on playing on at the other offer.

Noel starts to ask the question again, but the Banker calls again...

NEW OFFER

Banker's offer:

£16,500

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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:53 pm    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony

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Why doesnt he just come out and say he wants £20k to deal?!

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony
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Anthony thanks the Banker for all these other offers.

Anthony says

DEAL

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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:54 pm    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony

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Now, the hypo swap please Noel

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:54 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony
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That, on the other hand, is more consistent with the £11,500. Should be taken... is taken. Good play.

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony
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Noel wonders if the Banker has paid out a lot of extra money he didn't need to.

Noel opens Anthony's box 9 and reveals £50,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:55 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony
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Box 21 with Ellie contains the £100

Anthony says that he wouldn't earn that amount of money in 2 years, and he can do a lot with that.

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Mark

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:55 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony

Joined: Thu May 18, 2006 2:09 am
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OH DEAR... OH DEAR... OH DEAR...

Should have been a LOT more brave.

He had the right attitude to go for it... damn the Banker for upping the offer.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:56 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony
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In the end, the Banker was able to bail himself out. Still an impressive recovery all told though.

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In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 4:56 pm    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony

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Well all those against the hypo, it would have allowed him a spanking instead of a OBW.

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greeny

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 5:07 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony

Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:14 pm
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The swap's not guaranteed unless the 250k is in play though, and he didn't hint at wanting the swap.


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hogwild94

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 7:15 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony
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Hmm, decent game really. Did well to recover from the bad start.

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Brick

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 7:24 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony
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Chances are the banker always intended the offer at 2-box to be £16.5k, but started off by lowballing it to look like Anthony had been swayed by the extra few grand. It wasn't a bad offer and a lot to lose on a coinflip, so no qualms with the deal. Some people clearly need to recognise hindsight when they use it.

A few tweets from the banker suggest the next few games are going to be very interesting (although keep an open mind). Have to say I'm not looking forward to Will's game much though - he seems like a nice guy but Noel seems to be completely dismissing him in favour of his wife.

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Last edited by Brick on Mon Sep 19, 2011 7:48 pm, edited 2 times in total.

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 7:36 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony
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Wonder if Will and Bev are going to end up playing as a couple. It wouldn't strictly be a first, but it's infrequent enough that it'll look novel to most casual viewers - of games in the last year, I can only think of one genuinely played as a two-player game, that being Anthony and his brother.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:20 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
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norwichdonder wrote:
Well all those against the hypo, it would have allowed him a spanking instead of a OBW.


Hyposwaps don't effect the result (even if the Banker disagrees with me)

5-box offer wasn't quite enough and with the offers being so low, was worth the gamble (especially with 60% chance of getting up to 5-figures).

EV of the 4-box offer was under the £11.5k he got so it could be argued that it was worth the gamble but however you were going to play it (either determined to open your box or hoping to keep the £50k in play and take a sensible offer) it was a coin flip.

He won the first coin flip but then declined the second one when there was £16,500 to gamble - fair enough in my eyes. £16,500 at 2-box is equivalent generosity to nearly £25k on a £75k/blue finish, £33k on a £100k/blue finish and over £82k on a £250k/blue fiinish - all easy deals for me.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Mon Sep 19, 2011 11:30 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 19/09 Anthony

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
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I found Anthony a little cocky if i'm honest. I thought he was going to blindly go all the way and part of me wanted him to crash to a blue. I was relieved then that common sense prevailed in the end and he dealt a respectable sum, even if the Banker did go round the houses with that final offer. For me a far more satisfying result than seeing blind recklessness rewarded would have been

I missed the beginning but i assume Anthony was unaccompanied. If so maybe having someone in the audience would have been a good anchor for him, not that he needed one in the end

And has anyone else noticed that Nadia is turning into a bit of a black widow? How many power 5 amounts has she revealed at key points in people's games in the past few shows?

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