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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 4:59 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: 24/01 Claire
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Claire's game today.

Noel says pessimism is more dominant than optimism at the moment, and he isn't sure why that's the case at the moment.

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:02 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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Claire has box 3.

Claire is from South Wales but lives in Middlesborough, and she's a beauty therapist working in a small salon. She has her mum and sister in the audience today. Claire has a piece of Welsh cake as a gift for the banker, and she shows some family pics along with a good luck card that her daughter prepared for her and it has box 16 on it. Greg the floor manager returns the empty wrapper of the cake. :lol:

Here we go...

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Mark

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:04 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire

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Had the £50k yesterday. Hopefully a mega win today to start the week off on a high.


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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:06 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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Round 1

Noel has his 'pessometer' with him and moves the arrow about on it.

5 - Dale - £750

9 - Leanne - £10

1 - Tomas - 10p

11 - Karl - £500

Claire says "touch wood" but touches the only thing that isn't wood :lol:

12 - IJ - £50

Noel says that's the first all blue opener this year

Banker time

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:07 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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The banker thanks Claire for the gift and says it was delicious.

Banker's offer:

SWAP

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:07 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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Claire asks if she can swap the box with anything, or if it has to be another box. :lol:

Claire says

NO SWAP

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:08 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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The banker rings back and says if she'd taken the swap, she'd have been twice as likely to get a red than a blue.

Noel calls a break...

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:10 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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Another day, another neologism, another clear attempt to push a player on (which so far this year has been responded to with stubborn retrenchment - if you tell someone what to do fiercely enough, they might well fight back fiercely themselves), an... hang on an all-blue start... and no opening offer.

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Monkeynut

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:11 pm    Author: Monkeynut    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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Did I hear right? Banker asserts that not taking the swap was stupid because with an all blue round, there is twice as much possibility that the new box would be red?

The way I see it, the fact that she had an all-blue round implies a marginal extra probability that her own box is red!

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:14 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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The banker makes selective use of probability. It is true Claire would be odds-on to swap in a red, but she would also be odds-on to swap out a red...

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:16 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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We're back

Round 2

Noel explains the maths behind what the banker said before the break. Claire said she got an F in maths, and Noel says he's rubbish at maths too! The banker phones back and says there's been a language violation because Claire said "effin maths". :lol:

22 - Derrick - £100

2 - Sophie - £10,000

13 - Phoenix - £5,000

Banker time

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:17 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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The banker says it's unbelievable that some people put fate before maths and he says Claire is more likely to hit reds now.

Banker's offer:

£8,500

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:17 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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Claire says

NO DEAL

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Simon F

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:17 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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Bad logic from the banker - it's nearly twice as likely she'll swap away a red from the table.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:19 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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KP wrote:
The banker makes selective use of probability. It is true Claire would be odds-on to swap in a red, but she would also be odds-on to swap out a red...


My thoughts exactly at the time. Would have liked to have registered my disgust in the studio.

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:19 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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Well if Noel is going to twist players into bad decisions (and the Banker is going to regularly claim I am wrong to say so on Twitter) then I suppose at least it goes the other way too.

Super start in any event. More reds are likely, but many of them are affordable.

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:20 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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Round 3

15 - Dolly - £35,000

21 - Georgina - £250,000

Noel calls a break...

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BankerSpanker

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:22 pm    Author: BankerSpanker    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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£8,500? :smt011 Are you kidding me?! I think it should've been more like £18,500.
I wish the people in the audience would look at the board before applauding such an abysmal offer. :roll:

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:25 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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We're back

Last box before the Banker

14 - £5 - Charlotte

Banker time

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jan 24, 2011 5:26 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 24/01 Claire
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Big stroke of luck for the Banker. He is definitely holding these early offers down, that was in 2006 territory at 14-box, and this next one may be even worse...

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In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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