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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2010 4:53 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan
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What a surreal ending to the game.

So, the banker states that he had Brendan down as a cast-iron dealer and then offers him 88% of the mean at 5-box. Complete lack of consitancy then even on a 4 red-1 blue 5 box. £26k would have been far more believable but it's a TPW anyway.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2010 4:57 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan
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Now there was a last-minute twist never seen before!

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2010 6:02 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan
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killersbee wrote:
Now there was a last-minute twist never seen before!


Some people may question why the production felt it necessary to give an extra £250 today when people who have had a lot worse games lately got nothing extra.

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KP

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2010 6:05 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan
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We've got a player from Eastleigh! Poor thing, not only does she have to cope with the noise of the airport, dependence on Southampton while still paying more for property, but she gets teased for the name of her home town. Never mind, she's not far from WINchester. :)

Oh what's this about a lucky charm or three, get on with it, it's random. And in this case, luck turns against him in the opening round. Good comedy to start Act II, and a good second round to boot, triggering the first vaguely sensible offer of the month.

All-blue! Now we've got the momentum on our side; since the £250k, we've gone orange-blue-blue-blue-blue-blue, and we now have an average board - three of the Power 5 sans £250k. £15k and £20k arguably tip it into above-average territory, even. Brendan is right to play on here, but wrong to justify it based on 'positivity in the room'.

Oooh, reality check sends shockwaves through the crowd, as if that 'positivity' had suddenly been exposed for the delusionary sham that it is. Doesn't stop Noel from talking up how Brendan is 'a transformed man', for which I immediately read 'much more willing to gamble, and isn't that a good thing, viewers?', at the end of a superb Act II. Brendan may or may not have been transformed, but the board has been; after a very bad opening round, there is now a one-in-three chance of £50,000 or more being on the table. Crumbs, another blue! Seven blues in nine boxes, with the other two reds being low, and this now has to be pretty close to the mean. It is, and it's over the £20k inflection point to boot - that it is 2010's emerging recurring motif is, or should be, much less relevant. Brendan's mum correctly stays out of this, Craig is either reckless or pretending to be for his own good, a Deal is sensible play. There's just not much real upward potential here, although the board is plenty safe enough to support a gamble if you think the generosity will remain.

As Simon says, we can expect one red to go in this round. That's exactly what happens, but the penny drops at the end, and one has to fear for the legitimacy of the proveout offer as a result. Indeed. Anyone capable of turning that down would have deserved the double whammy that followed in round 6, and despite the final blue going next, we can still classify this as Better Too Soon Than Too Late.

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James1978

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2010 7:37 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan

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Enjoyed that one, was unsure about what I'd have done at the £21,500 offer, but now it's been dealt again and the player could have (supposedly) had more I think it's gonna stick for a long time now!! I definitely think 5-box should have been £26k, it would have been "Well I've tried the new governor, better revert to the old one!" :)

It had to go up though, the 5th round was above average - an average round would have been one of the power block, one of the back-up reds and a blue, Given that the two amounts that went with the £75k were both pence that swung it really.

Bet he's gutted he couldn't kiss Natalie due to her having the 1p after dealing - if I ever played, I'd pick all the women first so if a man had the 1p I'm more likely to have dealt before picking him. ;-)

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Brick

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2010 8:05 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan
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Are you going to pick the women in order of the one you want most to have the 1p? If so, I hope they don't latch on... ;-)

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killersbee

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2010 8:09 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan
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I would love to see that, James :lol:

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James1978

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2010 8:22 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan

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I think I'd just go along the wings a bit like Kyle did, so I'm figuring Natalie would have been the last box of the 1st round. (Fran, Gem, Kelly, De and Natalie). Needless to say I'd rather Natalie, Kelly or Gem had the 1p rather than Fran or De. ;-)

Then I'd have picked the women on the east wing in the next two-and-a-bit rounds, starting with Mary and finishing with Josephine!

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matt26

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2010 10:45 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan

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KP wrote:
All-blue! Now we've got the momentum on our side; since the £250k, we've gone orange-blue-blue-blue-blue-blue, and we now have an average board - three of the Power 5 sans £250k. £15k and £20k arguably tip it into above-average territory, even. Brendan is right to play on here, but wrong to justify it based on 'positivity in the room'.

Oooh, reality check sends shockwaves through the crowd, as if that 'positivity' had suddenly been exposed for the delusionary sham that it is.


Positivity is rarely, if ever, used as a justification for no dealing. Rather, it's used to increase the contestant's morale and keep them firmly on the ground. In the heat of the moment, you might end up making a deal or no deal you otherwise wouldn't make. Attempting to remain positive helps keep a clear mind, and thus make decisions that would not lead to huge regret if it went the wrong way.


Quote:
Doesn't stop Noel from talking up how Brendan is 'a transformed man', for which I immediately read 'much more willing to gamble, and isn't that a good thing, viewers?', at the end of a superb Act II.


You're reading too far into things. That statement could be interpreted in several ways. You seem to actively search for reasons to slam Noel these days...

Quote:
Craig is either reckless or pretending to be for his own good, a Deal is sensible play.


I'm pretty sure it's the latter. Well, looking at the people who said they'd have no dealt Neide's 30k offer, and then looking at what they dealt, it seems to be the same here.

Quote:
As Simon says, we can expect one red to go in this round. That's exactly what happens, but the penny drops at the end, and one has to fear for the legitimacy of the proveout offer as a result. Indeed. Anyone capable of turning that down would have deserved the double whammy that followed in round 6, and despite the final blue going next, we can still classify this as Better Too Soon Than Too Late.


I find it interesting how you mention utility curves a lot, yet say that certain decisions are illogical or deserve to be punished. Surely if people have different utility functions, in theory any offer which isn't above the mean could be turned down and still not be illogical, depending on who's in the chair?


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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Sun May 02, 2010 11:38 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan

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Nice to see a game that didn't go Pete Tong in round 4 after Zanna & Jonny. Think there was good justification for Brendan to go on at 8 box (as was proved) but given his personal circumstances I can perfectly understand why he dealt and better to go one too early than one too late.

That final £250 bonus twist was bizarre, don't know where that came from - unless the Banker thought his money would be safe

Looking forward to Cookie's game - if only to see if the Cookie Crumbles... :lol:

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granitecitybino

PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 3:10 pm    Author: granitecitybino    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan
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Just been trying to find this game on 4OD without success :? :? as was away for the weekend and was hoping to see it before watching todays show

What would we do without the great work done by Kestral and David on here with the commentaries :smt023 :smt023 .......havent seen Fridays show either....so can look forward to seeing THREE newbies today


Jim


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JuliePenguinFan

PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 6:25 pm    Author: JuliePenguinFan    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan
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Yeah here here Jim!! Thanks LOADS Kestral and David, I missed this one too, you're super dooper superstars with the commentaries! Cheers LOTS and LOTS
:smt023 :smt058 :smt041 :smt023

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Simon F

PostPosted: Mon May 03, 2010 9:38 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 02/05 Brendan
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granitecitybino wrote:
Just been trying to find this game on 4OD without success :? :? as was away for the weekend and was hoping to see it before watching todays show

What would we do without the great work done by Kestral and David on here with the commentaries :smt023 :smt023 .......havent seen Fridays show either....so can look forward to seeing THREE newbies today


Jim


C4 now post episodes on Youtube under the "TV shows" tab. Worth checking on there on days where it's not on 4OD.

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