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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris
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Ooooh, interesting...

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris
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Round 6 - Proveout Round

Noel says there are quite a few people who thought he was going to play on then.

9 - £500 Caroline

A BIG shout of NO from Noel

6 - £75,000 Eric

20 - £50 Eddie


Banker time with £15,000 and £50,000 remaining

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matt26

PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2010 5:54 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris

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Round Six Stats

Mean: £32,500
Absolute Balance: 13
Significant Balance: 1/1, 2
Fair Deal: £29,943.06
Volatility: 3.33


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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2010 5:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris
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The Banker says he would have had to provide a high offer here if Chris had played on and no dealt the last offer, so would have thrown in Yaser's amount from yesterday to get Chris to deal.

Banker's offer would've been:

£31,000

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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2010 5:54 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris
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£31,000?!

So inflated! :roll:

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2010 5:55 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris
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Noel opens box 22 and reveals £15,000

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wkd

PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2010 5:55 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris

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killersbee wrote:
And he takes it, can't blame him for that

Now I wonder if he has made a huge error...


That's bordering on oxymoronic. If you are conceding that he can't be blamed for dealing, then it's certain he hasn't made an error, huge or otherwise.


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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2010 5:55 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris
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Kristi with box 8 contains the £50,000

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2010 6:32 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris
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It's KB for you, if he thinks something was there to be won he'll linger towards a mistake!

£22,000 was generous enough, £24,000 was just insane! Stone-cast deal...and therefore £31,000 ISN'T inflated if you went on and had a round more in your favour than the Banker's...£31,000 was just as dealable however, so at least the £50,000 wasn't on the table! :)

While we have games like this, stability over higher cash and more dangerous gambles, I'm certainly not complaining!

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matt26

PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2010 6:44 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris

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Actually, 22k was a fairly poor increase from 15k considering the round he had. 15k was a fantastic offer there: 82% of the mean and 170% of the FD. 24k was more suitable considering the offers he'd had beforehand.

31k seemed feasible, since the offers throughout the game were very generous.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2010 7:35 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris
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Nervous player, with psychologically important box number on the table. And spiritualist leanings.

And £250k going second box. This is not a good formula for success. Just for good measure, it gets worse with the £100k at the end of the round. At least the penny dropped, which means we get a Sensible Opening Offer. Two mentions of Justin's game? Once was reasonable, twice makes me wonder if it's intended to goad Chris on.

All-blue! That's more like it, and this is the kind of board that you can happily chase deep into the game without making me angry. Offer above the FD already but only half the mean - didn't realise the FD could be under half the mean even on such a stable board, although early in the game you're always going to have a fair few blues that weigh the FD down a lot.

Another all-blue! Crikey this is stable. £14,000 on any other £75k-high halfway board would be ludicrous - here, though, it's perfectly judged. I'm probably Dealing in case the Banker turns on me at the first sign of instability, but if you assume the generosity has to remain based on turning down a generous offer so early, a No Deal is also perfectly reasonable play. We do indeed go to the ADP... all-red, but one of those was an orange and the mean barely moved... and it goes up! OK, now you have to take it in my opinion. He doesn't, he's clearly after a Power 5 win.

Orange... orange... blue! And after twice turning down very generous offers, he's going to get nigh-on the mean here. He doesn't? Oh, OK, the Banker thinks he might be a £20k targetist clearly... OFFER CHANGE! I know some people consider this cheating from the Banker - my opinion is that it reflects how he usually only has three serious attempts to buy the box given the ADP convention, and that's at least one too few for my liking. Permanent 4- and 3-box offers (or having two-box rounds from 8-box, as the French used to do) would do a similar job and be less annoying in my opinion. Anyway, is he going to take this? Yes. "Near his point of dealing", so maybe he was a £25k targetist.

Oh no, not a blue, and not a guilt trip... that's the biggie, either red will do now... blast. £31,000 was about the only offer he could make on that pair anyway, the Yaser reference wrote itself. TPW seems fair, though it's a bit of an oddity to see a risk-taking player wind up dealing too soon. That we got such an oddity is a reflection of the very high generosity levels from 11-box onwards, the two all-blue rounds swinging things dramatically. If you get to the 11-box point some other way, with a red in each round, I suspect he'd have turned down all the offers as the generosity wouldn't have been cranked up so early, round 4 would have triggered a punishment offer and it's unlikely the fifth offer would have been much above £20,000 either.

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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Feb 15, 2010 8:30 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris

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Nice to everyone back to normal dress again, though I didn't realise how bad Brian's mullet was! :)

Interesting game, I like it when the offers get generous early, makes it so much more interesting than games where you may as well not switch on till 5-box, a genuinely unpredictable player, I had no idea what he'd do, and a good win without missing out on too much - I have to admit I was disappointed with the £22k offer but I think he always intended to up it to unsettle Chris!

Strange to see no mention of a hypo swap but I'm not complaining about that! :D

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:12 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris

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I think that game snuck up on me a little bit, after the opening round I was half expecting a trainwreck but within two rounds he had an incredibly strong board.

Some interesting tactics from the Banker there, amazing what a difference £2k can make.

If the offers were over the average then i would put that down to Chris's attitude, worth remembering at times like this that the Banker is supposed to base his offers on the player rather than the board. That's why i pay little heed to averages.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:14 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris
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killersbee wrote:
£31,000?!

So inflated! :roll:


What would you have offered on a £15k/£50k finish then? Psychologically, even something like £28k or £29k and it would be a tempting no-deal.

Strange to see the players in normal garb today - I hardly recoginised Brian without the laurel leaf hiding his mullet.

Every offer from 11 box was tempting but as KP said, the generosity of the 11 box offer meant that barring a train-wreck round, the offers were always going to be worth carrying on.

For me, one of the effects of the banker raising the offer from £22k to £24k was that it removed the BG from the equation on a £75k/blue finish (and given the reference's to Justin's game - would we have got one at £22k - we'll never know).

Excellent game today (and thankyou Endemol for keeping FB posts relatively spoiler free now)

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matt26

PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2010 12:22 am    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris

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James1978 wrote:
Nice to everyone back to normal dress again, though I didn't realise how bad Brian's mullet was! :)

Interesting game, I like it when the offers get generous early, makes it so much more interesting than games where you may as well not switch on till 5-box, a genuinely unpredictable player, I had no idea what he'd do, and a good win without missing out on too much - I have to admit I was disappointed with the £22k offer but I think he always intended to up it to unsettle Chris!

Strange to see no mention of a hypo swap but I'm not complaining about that! :D


Am I the only person who actually likes the hypo swap? Though really, they should offer the hypo swap to EVERY contestant, not just a select few...

Today's game was an interesting one. Terrible opening round, recovery to a highly stable 11-box, a shaky round leading to 8-box, then a recovery to 24k. He had two all-blue rounds in a row, and came very close to having two all-red rounds in a row straight afterwards (the 50p stopped that happening fortunately). 14.5k at 11-box was tempting, but with a board that stable a collapse was highly unlikely, so I'd have gone for it. 15k and 24k were both cast-iron deals though.

Luck is definitely with the contestants rather than the banker at the moment. In fact, no one's won a blue since Tom's game, and that around 19 shows ago.


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2010 1:46 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris

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Yes, interesting game, and Chris did well to extract some generous offers from the banker. I thought £15k at 8-box was well worth taking, and that was shown a bit by the comparatively small increase to, well, 24k in the end! Well played, and this profitable run for the players continues!

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Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2010 1:47 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris

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If I think of anything to write in this duplicate post, I'll put it here!

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Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:02 am    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris
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A random stat!!! :P

No, I DO like the hypo swap, but in the case of many people on here it just makes the stats a little bit more complicated...the whole OPW OBW TPW TBW situation is still straightforward, but if someone hypo swaps and it works out for them, the studio treats it as a spanking even though it's technically a Banker win :|

Even Noel was on about it at first; "but you still had £**** on the table, how do you feel about that?"

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killersbee

PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:06 am    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris
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Simon F wrote:
What would you have offered on a £15k/£50k finish then? Psychologically, even something like £28k or £29k and it would be a tempting no-deal.


The last time I saw that finish was back in Saj's game in 2006 and she was offered £25,000, I'm pretty sure The Banker wouldn't have offered £31,000, if Chris was in Live play

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Tue Feb 16, 2010 11:10 am    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 15/02 Chris
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Even so, as Simon said £28,000-£29,000 would still have seen a few of us No Deal...so all the more reason for it to have been in the thirties...it's the kind of 2-box finish I'd want to gamble on regardless of the offer but would have to respect the generosity of the offer should it be so high (ie in the thirties...)

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