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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:50 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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Round 6

6 - £500 Tom

22 - £35,000 Harold

This is now a massive moment in Shell's life says Noel. Noel says the Banker was going to offer £10,000 if Shell was left with £1 and £75,000, or £61,000 if Shell was left with £50,000 and £75,000

13 - £75,000 Newbie Chris

Banker time with £1 and £50,000 remaining

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:50 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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The Banker says that Shell has been brave.

Banker's offer:

£10,000

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:50 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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Very quickly Shell says

NO DEAL

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:51 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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The Banker calls back, and Shell says that she thinks Joyce with 4 has the £1

The Banker offers the SWAP

Shell says

NO SWAP

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:52 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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Noel opens box 19 and reveals £50,000 :D

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wkd

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell

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kestral wrote:
The Banker says that Shell has been brave.

Banker's offer:

£10,000


And in banker mythology brave no deals are rewarded, not heavily punished with less than 40% of the mean.


Last edited by wkd on Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:02 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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kestral

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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Joyce with box 4 contains the £1

Shell says this all feels surreal, and this is really going to help her and her family.

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wkd

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:53 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell

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Excellent. Nice to see calculated risk taking rewarded for a change.


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matt26

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:59 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell

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wkd wrote:
kestral wrote:
The Banker says that Shell has been brave.

Banker's offer:

£10,000


And in banker mythology brave no deals are rewarded, not heavily punished with less than 20% of the mean.


Eh? It's 40% of the mean...

What an incredible game! After taking out the top two in the first round, her game went brilliantly, and she turned down offers that ultimately a lot of people (myself included) would have taken. Was on the edge of my seat through almost all of part three. The luck finally seems to have gone in the way of the contestants now.

Very, very well done Shell! Enjoy £50,000 and well done on becoming the tie-largest winner of season five so far! :D


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A Banker Spanking

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 5:59 pm    Author: A Banker Spanking    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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The last few shows have re-installed my faith in the show.

After another poor start which said au revoir to 100k + 250k in the first 5 boxes, produced a brilliant fightback. She almost ended up with Marys 2 box finish of 50k + 75k and would got it if she had gone left and not right.

I feared she might have the pound in her box so I was well pleased when the 50k was revealed!

Enjoy! :D 8)


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wkd

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:03 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell

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matt26 wrote:
wkd wrote:
kestral wrote:
The Banker says that Shell has been brave.

Banker's offer:

£10,000


And in banker mythology brave no deals are rewarded, not heavily punished with less than 20% of the mean.


Eh? It's 40% of the mean...

What an incredible game! After taking out the top two in the first round, her game went brilliantly, and she turned down offers that ultimately a lot of people (myself included) would have taken. Was on the edge of my seat through almost all of part three. The luck finally seems to have gone in the way of the contestants now.

Very, very well done Shell! Enjoy £50,000 and well done on becoming the tie-largest winner of season five so far! :D


I have craftily edited! Thanks


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richie4eva1

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:04 pm    Author: richie4eva1    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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Could this finally be the turnaround in Season 5 that some of us have been waiting for

Fully expecting Edmonds to be in gloat factor 10 tomorrow, especially with the way the last few games have gone :-D

Enjoy the 50k, Shell

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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:12 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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Woah! Where did that come from? :shock:

The last one was back in early December, and I agree Richie, that has got to be the turnaround of Season 5, we are now long overdue for a £50k plus win

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 6:14 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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Brilliant game! This mini renaissance is starting to look really good...and what better way to please even KB is a Power Five territory win! :P :D

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Simon F

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:38 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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Great game viewing wise.

BUT I'm going to assume that when Shell no dealt the £26k given that the banker virtually promised that the red/£1 finish would be no more than £10k, that she was happy to take the 60% chance that she had a red in her box because that was the only rational logic for no dealing £26k on the 5 box board.

Given the lowness of the guarantee on a red/£1 finish, the EV of the 2 box offer was never going to be more than £26k.

Ironically it was Sid's game from last October repeated on More 4 today and there were huge similarities between the 2 games.

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JuliePenguinFan

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:43 pm    Author: JuliePenguinFan    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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YAY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :smt041 What a great game and brilliant turn around after the shaky start. FANTASTIC ending! :-D Shell you were great, you went for it, were true to yourself and got an absolutely fabbie load of money! 50K, just brilliant! Well done! :smt023

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 7:46 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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killersbee wrote:
Woah! Where did that come from? :shock:

The last one was back in early December, and I agree Richie, that has got to be the turnaround of Season 5, we are now long overdue for a £50k plus win

You seem to get really angry and frustrated with low wins, but when big ones do come along (such as today's), you don't seem that fussed! :?

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 8:19 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell
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New game, new week, two OPWs on the bounce to get us here, let's do this.

And Shell's playing. Cor, remember that name, Noel? No, didn't think so. Very definitely not an all-blue opening round here, a six-figure win ruled out already. Shell reveals she has a target, a box amount, and does more damage with that one action than she did in the rest of the opening round. £NO_DEAL is obvious and warranted.

Second round is better, an orange and two blues... seven grand and change on this board? Lawks, that's almost good! We play on, though... finally a five-figure hit, but it's low, and an orange follows... and a five-figure offer! Now, what's this about 'freedom money'?

The Rock goes... then the ten grand, so it's all about the one-in-three chance of a Power 5 in the box... the penny drops! That could trigger an eight-box Deal, the offer will certainly be improved... it is as well, and I'd probably have to take this...

kestral wrote:
Shell says her biggest regret would be if she dealt and there was a big amount in her box.


Read: Shell has listened to the producers, and is going to make questionable gambles on their behalf.

Boy does this one pay off though - what a round! It's the classic mean-below-median situation, and the Banker predicts a high-volatility finish - and it is a 60% chance... Old Faithful is a fairly predictable offer, and honestly? If you could turn down £15,000 at eight-box you should probably be playing on here too. She duly does.

Ten grand for a £1/£75k finish? So what will £1/£50k be then, a swap? Oh, OK, ten grand again and see also my previous remark at the five-box offer.

wkd wrote:
in banker mythology brave no deals are rewarded, not heavily punished with less than 40% of the mean.


The rational explanation: the £1/£75k promise meant it couldn't be higher.

The cynical explanation: they knew she had £50k and wouldn't swap, and wanted her to win £50k to goad more players into utterly, utterly stupid gambles for 'good television'.

Good luck to tomorrow's player - you're going to need it to handle the pressure you'll get from Noel!

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matt26

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 8:32 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell

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KP wrote:
New game, new week, two OPWs on the bounce to get us here, let's do this.

And Shell's playing. Cor, remember that name, Noel? No, didn't think so. Very definitely not an all-blue opening round here, a six-figure win ruled out already. Shell reveals she has a target, a box amount, and does more damage with that one action than she did in the rest of the opening round. £NO_DEAL is obvious and warranted.


To be fair, he did remember Shell again quite a while after Aaron's game. And when you reach his age your memory isn't what it used to be...


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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Jan 18, 2010 8:36 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Shell

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My goodness KP, talk about "reading between the lines" - maybe she did actually want to go for the big money in the boxes and had made up her mind before she played! (At 8-box Noel did warn her she was just as likely to have a pocket-change value in her box than a power 5!!).

Plus finally a box opening goes the right way - just been so used to seeing blues get won from situations like that.

Anyway I don't know about anyone else but I'm genuinely delighted for a lovely lady to have gone away with a life-changing amount.

That was scarily similar to Lynne's game, only for £50k rather than £75k. Top two went in first round both times, £75k-high block remined for a long period, which disintegrated at the end to leave all-or-peanuts.

It still makes me laugh that Noel thinks anything which isn't one of the top two values after 5-box is cheerable though. I thought cheering £35k in that situation was nuts (excuse the pun....)!!

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