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killersbee

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:55 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo
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OH NO!!! :shock: :(

And the Biggie comes to the table 2 Games late, now we're definatly in for a Wakey Winter again looks like we are gonna see The Banker walk all over the contestants

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Last edited by killersbee on Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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granitecitybino

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:55 pm    Author: granitecitybino    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo
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3 times in 8 games the £250k has been brought to the table


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kestral

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 5:59 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo
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killersbee wrote:
OH NO!!! :shock: :(

And the Biggie comes to the table 2 Games late, now we're definatly in for a Wakey Winter again looks like we are gonna see The Banker walk all over the contestants

Think I'll keep watching and see how the games pan out, as the predictions so far haven't been that close (Lots of 11-box deals after Corinne's game :ponder: )

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killersbee

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 6:17 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo
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Well, so far they have proven me wrong

But I think KP's right, we could be having more courageous games before the Upcoming Santa vs. Scrooge specials

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Skyline

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 6:49 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo
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Mark wrote:
Should have been a lot lot more brave and had more faith.


Tu m'enerves.

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matt26

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 6:56 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo

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I have to say, I wasn't expecting Flo to play today either. I thought that she was being put on extremely early, but I checked and it turns out it was her 17th show, so I guess it wasn't that early...

£12,000 was a very interesting offer; I'm not 100% sure what I'd have done myself. On the one hand, it's not particularly generous, but at the same time there's a 60% chance of taking out the QM, and £12,000 is a lot to lose. As far as I know, Flo now holds the record for 'lowest selling of a quarter million box', unfortunately. (Correct me if I'm wrong)

It was nice to see Noel being neutral for once, and for the banker to not give a ridiculous hypothetical offer. The banker's been reading the contestants quite well recently...

Although losing out on £238,000 is a shame, it was still an enjoyable game overall. It's just a shame it could've have been Corinne playing today instead...


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h2005

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 7:07 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo
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matt26 wrote:
As far as I know, Flo now holds the record for 'lowest selling of a quarter million box', unfortunately. (Correct me if I'm wrong)

I think Tolleck sold it for about £9k last year.

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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 8:11 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo

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We needed a reckless gambler to play today! :)

I know people are going to call her an idiot, but if anyone is offered the money that will save your house, you're too old to easily get another chance to get that money again, and you have a 60% chance of losing the lot, I think most people would take it. Just wish she'd left some meaningful back up! I could totally understand her financial situation, and I think knowing she could have had the money to have saved her house, turning it down and losing it would have been worse.

But just about the unluckiest game you could have with the biggie on the table.

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DOND Addict

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 8:32 pm    Author: DOND Addict    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo

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Why didn't Noel offer the hypothetical swap at the end? I thought every one gets that if they the £250,000 is still in play at the end.


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James1978

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 8:36 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo

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DOND Addict wrote:
Why didn't Noel offer the hypothetical swap at the end? I thought every one gets that if they the £250,000 is still in play at the end.


Maybe he's finally learnt that it's totally irrelevant it that situation as anyone cautious enough to have dealt at 5-box would have dealt £65k before he even finished the question! :)

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 8:46 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo
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After two fantastic boards this week, with very different OBWs the result, what happens next?

A player who's going to have a bit of fun, judging by her props; the recently-coined Seahawk Rule states that players who express their desire to enjoy their time on the show are more likely to gamble. (See Corinne's game thread, page 6.) So that implies she'll gamble; the many family pictures suggest otherwise. Mature female contestants are probably less likely than any other demographic to play moderately, so we've got a heck of an interesting game on our hands.

Not if the Banker's going to play silly games. We'll skip the first three non-offers, and cut to the business end as the producer clearly wants us to do that. Eight-box, with the jackpot backed up only by £15k and £5k, and the offer is placed just above the latter. More than low enough to adopt a fatalistic approach and gamble, especially when other people are telling you to. Sure enough, she does.

Oh crumbs, a five-blue squashdown... but the one red is the jackpot, and we escape the 1-in-56 chance to be left with The Trevor Bruce Five-Box, sans penny thankfully. The offer is a couple of grand up on Trevor's, and I'd be chasing it now because I can afford to lose this, but that's enough money that plenty of contestants couldn't.

Right, we've got the situation defined here: £12,000 is life-changing money for her in that it gives her the security and freedom to retire earlier than she otherwise might. However, it's not catastrophic to win a blue. The question nobody is going to think to ask; is the two-box offer on £250k/blue, whatever that might be, going to be two-and-a-half times more useful than £12,000 to her?

If Corinne had won the £250,000, I fear I'd be saying that h2005 wrote:
Noel reminds Flo that she can still win £250,000 and that winning a blue would not necessarily be a disaster...

Flo says NO DEAL


Because Noel has remembered there's a recession on, instead he wrote:
Noel says Flo's proved herself, and there's no obligation for her to take a gamble.

Flo says DEAL


Oh god it's on the table. Noel, you were incredibly responsible in this game, including just before the Big Reveal. Don't let that go after this. Please.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Wed Dec 09, 2009 10:19 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo
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I knew there would be someone posting that Corinne and Florence should have had each other's boards but unfortunately life doesn't work that way. For the 3rd day running, the player probably make the right decision for them if not for the board and for the 2nd time in 3 days, it turned out to be the wrong decision but £12k was a very well pitched offer by the banker and given the previous 4 offers, it was never going to be much more.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 12:23 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo

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And that really is 4 women players in a row...

Obviously it's disapointing when the big money comes to the table and is sold for a relative pitance but without anything to back it up is it really worth chasing? I don't blame Flo for dealing, obviously the five box offer was too much to turn down given her circumstances, I don't think there's any shame in that, not given how vulnerable her board was.

A very low key game after the past few days. Flo's talent for hitting big reds kept the offers low and it never really took off in terms of tension. Then again after Corrine & Katie it was a bit of a welcome respite.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 1:40 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo

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Yes, a welcome low-key game I think after the past few days. A few mates of mine went to see this show, but thankfully (and quite rightfully) they didn't reveal anything about it, which was good! :smt023

In terms of the game, I can't blame her for the deal, it was a nasty decision to make and considering her home situation, she felt she couldn't afford to lose £12,000, so it was a fair enough deal.

In one-box games like this, as a rough rule I often work out whether the 2-box offer is likely to be roughly 3 times more, and if it is I'll go on. In this case, I'd clearly expect £36,000 (and probably closer to £60,000), so I'm going on. Of course, it depends on what I'm risking, but on balance I think it was worth a punt today.

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nevadajo7

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 2:09 am    Author: nevadajo7    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo

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DOND Addict wrote:
Why didn't Noel offer the hypothetical swap at the end? I thought every one gets that if they the £250,000 is still in play at the end.



i was thinking that :ponder:


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SeahawkTim

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:35 am    Author: SeahawkTim    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo

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KP wrote:
A player who's going to have a bit of fun, judging by her props; the recently-coined Seahawk Rule states that players who express their desire to enjoy their time on the show are more likely to gamble. (See Corinne's game thread, page 6.) So that implies she'll gamble; the many family pictures suggest otherwise.


More likely to gamble, sure, but with literally zero backup you're starting to enter kamikaze territory on that board - even if £12K is a very cheap offer.

Quote:
Oh god it's on the table. Noel, you were incredibly responsible in this game, including just before the Big Reveal. Don't let that go after this. Please.


I think Noel realized in that spot that Flo's board was so precarious that it essentially doomed her to making a bad deal.


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Tom

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 11:55 am    Author: Tom    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo

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Absolutely no problems with the deal. The money will seriously help her so I'm pleased she got a decent sum.

No point saying she would have been the 3rd £250,000 winner, she would have taken the £65,000.


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Brick

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 12:47 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo
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The £65k did seem a tad inflated; in a game where the highest offer had been £12k I wouldn't have expected more than £50k there, although at least we didn't get something totally ridiculous like £90k or more.

Another game where it seems like the only reason one big number stays in the game is because it's on the table - we've had a lot of those so far this season. Though as the current line-up know all too well, it's always dangerous to assume one particular amount must be in your box because it's still on the board, so I don't blame Flo for her deal (nor would I blame someone for going on for the reasons StatsMan explained).

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lcc

PostPosted: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:34 pm    Author: lcc    Post subject: Re: 09/12 Flo

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yeah even if she would have gone on dont think she would have risked £65,000 anyway not in her situation anyway???? at least she can stay in her house now thats the main thing as it could have gone pearshaped think it will be harry tonight???? woo hoo!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


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