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Deal or No Deal forum index » UK DoND Forums » Deal or No Deal Show Commentaries & DiscussionAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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James1978

PostPosted: Thu Jul 23, 2009 8:02 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 23/07 Cyril - Seaside Specials Week

Joined: Fri Aug 04, 2006 4:47 pm
Location: Darlington, NE England
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I was thinking at the £29k offer, that if the £750 hadn't been found at 2-box, theen the banker would have been all like "Well you've had 2 chances to find it and you haven't, etc......"

Also the other thing is, I don't think Noel said the swap is guaranteed unless the banker has seen inside the box, I vaguely remember something along those lines happened to Pam last Halloween (I didn't see it live but have seen the last 10 mins), where the main reason she dealt at 2-box was she thought the big money was in the other box left on the wings and then the banker called and said he'd have been too scared to offer the swap or something, which came as shock t me as before that, I thought a swap was guaranteed on ANY special-themed game!

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rico7

PostPosted: Thu Jul 23, 2009 9:05 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: 23/07 Cyril - Seaside Specials Week
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Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 10:36 am
Location: Stratford-upon-avon, Warwickshire
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Great show and really god result for Cyril. I was a bit disappointed with some of the advice from the wings though.

I thought the £31,000 at 5 box was worth considering given the 60% chance of picking out 50 75 or 100K to reduce the offer at the next box. It worked out for Cyril against the odds to get an offer of 40K then he was encouraged to go just one more box with only a 25% chance of an increased offer. There was good advice about no dealing 29K as there was a safety net there for him, but the banker could have gone much lower than the proveout 26K with a 75K £750 finish to give Cyril a difficult decision.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Jul 23, 2009 9:41 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 23/07 Cyril - Seaside Specials Week
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
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Good game today and one where only a non-swappy gambler to the end would have failed to win a nice 5 figure sum.

The only thing that puzzled me was the drop from £40k to £29k when the £50k went. Considering

a) the mean increased from £56,437.50 to £58,583.33
b) the FD only decrased from £44,213.68 to £43,363,95

I was surprised the offer dropped. I was actually expecting it to go up. Would the US banker have done the same in the same situation?

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Jul 23, 2009 10:48 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 23/07 Cyril - Seaside Specials Week
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The US Banker would have gone to 50k, I suspect...

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Thu Jul 23, 2009 10:52 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 23/07 Cyril - Seaside Specials Week

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
Location: Oxfordshire
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Fantastic game, really exciting.

The £29k deal caught me out as much as anyone but i can sort of understand it. He was at risk of a blue/red finish and the banker's offers can be so unpredictable in those circumstances it was probably prudent to cut his ,losses.

Personally i would have gone to 2 box but I wouldn't have wanted to risk winning £750 so i would have definately taken that £26k

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Muriel

PostPosted: Thu Jul 23, 2009 11:27 pm    Author: Muriel    Post subject: Re: 23/07 Cyril - Seaside Specials Week
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Joined: Fri Jul 17, 2009 12:52 pm
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A wonderful result for a very attractive man.
Lots Of Love
Muriel


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu Jul 23, 2009 11:55 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 23/07 Cyril - Seaside Specials Week

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Well, a fascinating finale to that game - these one-box rounds certainly throw up some interesting psychological dilemmas. He was faced with a board stronger than he probably dreamed of, one which he felt obliged to turn down an offer of £40k on, despite that not really being his inclination, it's more than tempting when you have a 75% chance of 50k or more in the box.

The banker seized upon this weakness with an excellently judged offer of £29k, an example of him playing the player not the board. It was a bit risky with all 2-box permutations giving fairly decent offers, but he had judged Cyril was a player willing to cut his losses, which most players would find difficult to do in this situation.

The banker played a good game really considering the strength of the board at most stages, and got the slight bit of deserved luck at the end. You could say in the end, both players knew what they wanted to do, and both sides came out fairly content.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Thu Aug 06, 2009 7:48 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 23/07 Cyril - Seaside Specials Week
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I saw this while on holiday, I was shocked he turned down £40k

But because of my Lucky number, it would've been a Swappy £75,000 for me

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