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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 8:24 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

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What a trainwreck. When the £50,000 went though I knew it would be an all blue 8 from what Daniel said.

Interesting twist anyway - the £50 deal was a bit flat but still a decent decision as it had a 60% chance of paying off and a £250 box win wouldn't have been much better.


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James1978

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 8:40 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

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alexandercbrown wrote:
What a trainwreck. When the £50,000 went though I knew it would be an all blue 8 from what Daniel said.

Interesting twist anyway - the £50 deal was a bit flat but still a decent decision as it had a 60% chance of paying off and a £250 box win wouldn't have been much better.


I don't think there was any option but to deal the £50 - that way there was a potential £997 to be gained and nothing to lose (ie you'd still go home with £50 if there was more in the box), but by no-dealing you could only gain an extra potential £200 (and only a 20% chance compared with the 60% chance of £997), and also still go home with less! :)

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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 8:46 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

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James1978 wrote:
alexandercbrown wrote:
What a trainwreck. When the £50,000 went though I knew it would be an all blue 8 from what Daniel said.

Interesting twist anyway - the £50 deal was a bit flat but still a decent decision as it had a 60% chance of paying off and a £250 box win wouldn't have been much better.


I don't think there was any option but to deal the £50 - that way there was a potential £997 to be gained and nothing to lose (ie you'd still go home with £50 if there was more in the box), but by no-dealing you could only gain an extra potential £200 (and only a 20% chance compared with the 60% chance of £997), and also still go home with less! :)


yeah sorry if that came across wrong, it was the only option really.


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Whizzer

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 9:11 pm    Author: Whizzer    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

Joined: Sat Feb 18, 2006 5:39 pm
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Mmm... very bad luck for Chris in today's game. It's a shame that so far all these 1000th episode countdown show's have all been dissapointing, in that the player doesn't have much luck with the boxes. Good idea about the £1000 box being replaced with a gold sum with much higher amounts. But sadly these boxes haven't played a key part in any of the games, as they're being picked so early in the game.

Let's hope the remaining three special episodes(including the 1000th show on Wednesday) holds more luck for the players.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 9:15 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown
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Whizzer wrote:
Mmm... very bad luck for Chris in today's game. It's a shame that so far all these 1000th episode countdown show's have all been dissapointing, in that the player doesn't have much luck with the boxes. Good idea about the £1000 box being replaced with a gold sum with much higher amounts. But sadly these boxes haven't played a key part in any of the games, as they're being picked so early in the game.


Take it you haven't been watching the same games as me. Derrick's game was totally transformed by his £30,000!!

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Simon F

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 9:32 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown
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DanJudge wrote:

I worked it out to be about 1in3 for all blue round and 1in166 for all red.


I'm sure your figure slipped and you meant to type 1 in 165.

:D

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DanJudge

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 10:06 pm    Author: DanJudge    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

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Simon F wrote:
DanJudge wrote:

I worked it out to be about 1in3 for all blue round and 1in166 for all red.


I'm sure your figure slipped and you meant to type 1 in 165.

:D


Ha ha ha. I can pretend it is a typo, but actually I was incorrect because I was treating the odds of all red round being 0.6000, but not as the more accurate 0.6060. Theres a tip to everyone.... Never round up early on in a calculation. So I worked it out to be 1in166.666666. Either way, it was still wrong, whichever way I paint it. ha ha ha.


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crazyeddie

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 10:13 pm    Author: crazyeddie    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown
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In 14 boxes, Chris lost £603,060 from the board, an average of £43,075 for each box opened until 8-box. In percentage terms, he was left with 0.27% of the starting board.

But other than the game having its first 8-blue board at 8-box, there isn't much to say other than Chris was really unfortunate to have that happen. Statistically, the chances of having the 8-blue 8-box after 997 shows is 40%, so it was bound to happen at some point, but it was a shock to have it in a specials game.

I don't blame Chris for his decision at all at 11-box. He knew what he was up against when he had 8 blues to find, plus as Ed and Dan pointed out, a 1 in 165 chance of things going wrong is almost inconceivable.

There isn't much else to say, other than I though Chris took it really well in the circumstances, even when the opportunity of a lifetime had slipped through his fingers. He could easily have had an all-blue round, and facing an offer of £12,000+, but it wasn't meant to be.

Sadly, this game'll be remembered for its infamy, which Noel might point out when doing the stats on show 1,997. But from the looks of things, I think Chris'll take it on the chin, and be successful in other areas of life. :)


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ciderduck

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 10:33 pm    Author: ciderduck    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown
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Just watching this now. OH MY GOD!! Possibly the worst game ever?! I've yet to see the end. I checked on here earlier to see who it was, 7 pages at that point. I knew it was either spectacularly good or bad. Never in my life would i have thought this. Unbelievable!!


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 10:57 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

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Yesterday's teaser about milestones collectively produced the right answer from H2005 and Greeny, the final list being:

Tina - 800 Ron - 200 Rose - 400
Lisa - 900 Sarah - 600 Helen - 300
Anna - 100 Annie - 500 Caron - 700

Good recalling!

Ok, today's teaser is about boxes. Firstly, I want to know how many colours of boxes there have been. Note this does not include designs or subtle differences in shades of colour, such as dark brown and light brown, just the overall/ majority colour of the box. That's part a. Part b is to determine which of the following box numbers has been brought to the table initially the most:

a) Box 1
b) Box 2
c) Box 3
d) Box 6
e) Box 12
f) Box 19

...and finally part c is to tell me how many times the same box amount has come to the table for THREE consecutive shows, not including being swapped to the table. No peeking! Answers confirmed tomorrow night.

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greeny

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:10 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:14 pm
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Box 9 came 3 games running way back in December 2006, box 4 and box 12 obviously this week, so it's happened 3 times.

Of those 6, box 6 has come the most, but box 12 has also come over 50 times to the table (12 has come more than any other box this season).

As to colours of boxes, I remember: Pink, Green (Dark), Gold, Red, Black, Orange and Yellow. I'm not sure if there are any others, but I remember those lot (unless you count the LTL boxes which were blue).

And an additional question, for which I know the answer: which box has had the 250k the most, and which has had the 250k the least?


Last edited by greeny on Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Skyline

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:13 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown
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I think it's box 11.

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greeny

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:15 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:14 pm
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Skyline wrote:
I think it's box 11.


That's not the right answer for any question asked by myself or Statsman. It's not come to the table 3 times running, has come to the table 50 times (which is less than boxes 6 and 12), and has had the 250k 50 times, which is towards the higher end, but not the most.


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:16 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown
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Definitely box 11 that has had it the most - seeing as Greeny doesn't shut up about it most days! :lol:

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greeny

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:18 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

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Big-Davey wrote:
Definitely box 11 that has had it the most - seeing as Greeny doesn't shut up about it most days! :lol:


You would think that's the case, but it's not! :lol:

If you read the TV Times article, you'll know which box has had it least....


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:32 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

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Just to clarify for part c, I meant in terms of values not numbers.

I have to confess that I wouldn't know which box has had the £250k the most without looking it up, but I too would've guessed box 11. To be honest, I only tend to log details about boxes at the table, so I wouldn't consciously think, "oh, I must remember that..."

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:36 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

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Wow! Not a lot i can say that hasn't already been said, Chris just had the most appalling luck, to wipe out the reds like that is almost inconcievable. It was horrible to watch, but he took it well

Have to say i would have played it exactly the same way. Yes the £7,500 was a dealable offer but the board was stacked in his favour and that chance of an extra £997 was the clincher for the 5 box deal

Nice to see some familiar friendly faces in the audience (Hello all :D )

And box 12 came to the table again, three days on the trot. This gets wierder and wierder

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greeny

PostPosted: Sun Mar 29, 2009 11:46 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

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StatsMan wrote:
Just to clarify for part c, I meant in terms of values not numbers.

I have to confess that I wouldn't know which box has had the £250k the most without looking it up, but I too would've guessed box 11. To be honest, I only tend to log details about boxes at the table, so I wouldn't consciously think, "oh, I must remember that..."


Fair enough, it was box 2.

If I changed it to which boxes brought it to the table the most, could you answer that?

As for values on the table 3 days running, I know it's happened, but for the life of me I can't remember when it happened, though something tells me 20k has been 3 days running.


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2009 12:25 am    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown
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I knew box 2 brought it to the table fewer times - with it bringing blues to the table a lot more often!

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cfd

PostPosted: Mon Mar 30, 2009 1:48 am    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 29/03 - Chris - 1,000th Show Countdown

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Am I the only one who would have dealt the £7,500? The £5,000 is a reluctant no deal, but the £7,500 is a significant enough improvement to make this a dealable offer.

Average was only ~£13,000 at that point, and a very dangerous board. People have quoted a 1/3 chance of an all blue round, and whilst this is true it is more likely we will hit the 2/3 chance of not an all blue round. Let's be generous and take the best case scenario of the non-blue round and we hit the 20k and 2 blues. The average is now ~£15,500. But the board is now even more unstable than before, so I'd probably be expecting the offer to (fairly I might add) go down here. If we hit one of the other reds instead then the average goes down, as does the board stability, and our offer plummets. We now probably have to open our box and hope it contains a red. Chances are it won't.

Even the all blue round only brings the average up to ~£18,000. We can expect a half decent offer here, but it's still dangerous. With Ed/Daniel in the audience we might expect £10,000 here, but I'd imagine no more than that.

So in summary:
1/3 chance of getting to 8box and recieving a slightly better offer.
2/3 chance of getting to 8box and recieving a lower offer, where we're now essentially having to open our box, which has a 3/4 chance of holding a blue amount.

£7,500 = Deal


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