I don't think you are missing the point Al. Although I haven't been to 31 games! (soon you'll appear on the official DoND website if you keep seeing the show live) I have visted Bristol throughout the shows evolution from the early days in November 2005 to the last visit in April 2008 and not one person from the audience research team, or Greg, Eddie and Mark Olver in the studio have instructed us to make sure the player plays to the end and supports no dealing. They've always said to support the player and as stated react appropriately. Not on one occasion they have expressed an interested to whether to play safe or go to the end regardless, the folks have always been neutral. The only way we can express an opinion to the contestant is when they choose the audience poll or to ask us individully.

KP stated that he visted the show at the recording H was absent so he must know what the audience researchers have expressed.

I was surprised Daniel played after 27 odd games as if they wanted to get him off the show quickly then they would've done it at the earliest opportunity. Last Monday on Love Week.

What an absolutely legendary game. Infact I think it has displaced Tax-Free Harry as my 2nd favourite show with a 3rd round deal - I doubt Melanie will ever be beaten!

I knew Daniel would get some twist from the banker, a la Ned, but I expected it to be for Daniel to make the offers for him, and the banker would accept them or offer a swap-only if they were too high like clueless Janie had in May last year, Daniel would have been a far better conesttant to do that on.

It was a double OPW in terms of both beating the banker and getting the £1k behind the bar, I'd certainly have liked to have been a winger! He didn't half cut it fine by leaving the £100k to be hit JUST before 5-box though.

Also feels odd that he's won the lowest amount of anyone this week, but the first OPW, very odd. Just goes to show classic DOND games don;t have to be about made Wakeyism.

One of the biggest holes on the wings ever will be left on Sunday, but I certainly hope you stay around for a long time on the forums Daniel , you deserved every penny of that £16,500, not to mentione the extra money you earned for the other players!

So today was the day. We knew it was going to be interesting and it certainly was.

I really didn't expect a 3rd round deal, but that offer was very good and of course, it turned out to be the right thing. The twist was interesting, but as someone has already said, it made the game seem a bit weird.

Daniel will no doubt be sorely missed on the wings. I hope he continues to post on here, his insights have been brilliant and I'm saying that despite not understanding most of the mathematical stuff. But the run of decent wins continues and I hope it continues to..

But you did deserve it Dan, well done!

Good luck with your application Tom,Dan's game ended with the financial outcome for him so well done but I'm afraid all the analysing ain't going to change the game as it is a pure game of Luck unless of course you know what's in the boxes.Enjoy the win Dan!

What a fab game with a fab result. Dan you were true to yourself did what was right for you. Well done and all the best for the future.

Mister Al, well done on going 31 games without that. And to Travis P for your lower number. I've been precisely once, and the audience researcher there made an unambiguously Wakeyist rallying talk to us before we went in! Your sample is significantly greater than mine, though.

You're right that £16,500 was relatively unlikely to produce an OPW - there were many routes to a bigger offer than that with the generosity today, but very few to produce a much bigger win!

Is it possible that they wanted Dan to Deal early, in the hope they could make an inflated proveout offer and make 'statistical' players look a bit silly because their figurehead 'Dealt too soon'? If so, it spectacularly backfired!!

I'm so glad the game I went to was an apparent outlier. I also find it quite ironic.

The audience researchers who usher the folk in don't have a presence on the actual recording. They either hide away backstage or go back to the office and take bookings for future dates. The main folk who are present are Mark Olver (for unknowns he is the excellent warm up guy) and the floor managers Greg, Eddie and Chivers who tend to stay neutral.

A bit of a surreal show all round, however it's a game i've been looking forward too, and I certainly enjoyed it.

Daniel has had a big presence on the show since his arrival and it was always going to be an interesting battle with the Banker when his turn eventually came. The whole Daniel/Banker role reversal, I thought, was a fun idea.

When the Banker offered £16,500 at the third offer I had a feeling that Daniel may deal judging from his reaction, and whilst I may not have dealt there, Daniel did a deal that was right for him (though I did think there was more money in the game, but thankfully not) and ultimately it turned out to be a rare OPW from a third offer which made the deal even better.

So well done Daniel on your £16,500 and for the insightful comments you’ve given from your time on the show. You obviously helped a lot of other players out, be it from the advice or the stats you gave, whilst you where there. If the Banker ever dies then I hope you’re offered the job.

Also, just out of interest Dan, what offer would you have dealt at the first, or second, offer?

I'm hoping Dan will say why he thinks the banker gave him such a generous offer at 11 box.

Could it have been that he was setting the game up by wrongly assuming Dan would no deal?

If Dan had gone on any setbacks would then be severely punished with excessively low offers (even lower in liveplay than the proveout) forcing Dan to the end and creating either a comprehensive
victory for the banker over the "statsman" or a vindication of Wakeyism (if Dan ended up winning a Power 5 amount) ?

The board was not that stable and like others who have had generous 3rd round offers
Dan might have been forced to the end to win a low blue. At 11 box there was only a 33.9% chance
of avoiding the 3 Power 5 amounts in the next round. In fact it was almost 51% chance to hit either 75K
or 100K before 8 box. Dealing £16,500 was the smart move.

I don't believe the banker was expecting Dan to deal the offer, even though
it was generous. I don't believe the banker would have continued to give Dan generous offers
even if the board had not imploded like it did in the proveout. It was a game where the banker was
likely to be unpredictable, and it was wise to take a good offer while it was on the table because
he might not have got another one.

Great show just as I'd hoped, Daniel proved that his approach could work and always great to see the best readers of the game get an OPW. I got the feeling from some of his posts that the game hadn't gone well and that proved well wide of the mark, perhaps he was just a bit uncertain of how people would react to the fact he dealt so early - thankfully the 3 or 4 most vocal and aggressive opponents of early deals are no longer on the forum.

And not only that but he became the first contestant to bank a game for the Banker, and forced the man himself to get an OPL! I'd have gone the Banker's way, and ended up with £50 or the swap for a fiver I suspect.

I think it's an overstatement to say it's the end of Wakeyism, although it may well bring back the third-offer deal as an acceptable option for the player to consider, even though we don't want a return to the days when we sometimes had 3 of them in a week!

Dan

What can I say........you did great ........probably the first time I have seen a 3rd offer deal end up being a perfect OPW and banker ing and he had to pay an extra £1000 as well.

Did think for a bit you had gone too soon despite a great offer but was proved wrong.

Well done....


Jim

If the producers feel they have too many 3rd round dealers and not enough Wakeyists then
we'll see a change in the offers to manipulate the games, but I hope this doesn't happen.

We've often seen shows with generous early offers, followed by unecessarily low offers
to force contestants to the end. Perhaps today's show might put an end to that.

If it was another contestant with a successful 3rd round deal OPW, this show might be
conveniently forgotten soon enough, but the fact that Dan had such an influence
in the wings strongly suggests that it won't be for a long time, and I wonder if Dan will leave
a legacy for both the contestants and the banker for some time to come!

Here is the full episode of Dan's game >> http://www.youtube.com/view_play_list?p ... 8A5A1C5CD4 <<

Didn't get to watch today as I was at work but did manage to log on here and read the commentary after the show - and all I can say is, well done Dan!! Your stats ability worked in your favour, giving you a decent offer and a banker ing to boot!

forgot to mention earlier that I thought Rich's comment was hilarious!! and I also find it very amusing the way they dealt with David's "wing-walking"!!

Well, that has to be one of the most enjoyable games with a 3rd offer deal there has ever been - and the added £1,000 behind the bar added an extra flavour to the proveout! I thought the banker might have invited Daniel to set his own offers, much like a past contestant whose name escapes me (begins with J, I think) - the double offer idea was a bit confusing at first, I had to rewind because I wasn't really paying attention!

I think what makes it remarkable for a 3rd offer deal is that quite a lot of us would've taken it as well (myself included)! It was a high percentage of the mean, there was little immediate upside potential (and not a great chance of an ultimate upside potential) of a significant level, and it was a significant sum of money - perfect rationale for taking any deal, I should think.

Although I add, I suspect most of us would not have crafted such a great offer at 11-box, having worked the opening, he capitalised on it - Daniel played the game perfectly throughout his stay to this end, and got the deserved result - great stuff!

Oh, and to suggest that the audience are encouraged to pressurise the player into no-dealing to the end is ridiculous. All of the audiences I have been in have been thoroughly supportive of the player, whatever their decision. The player might perceive that they are under pressure to go beyond 11-box, but really that is not the case and a irrational fear if they are going to allow anyone to sway them away from making the right decision for them.

An irrational fear, yes. Does that fear exist? Perhaps I see more of it than really exists, but the pre-conditions for such a fear are certainly present.

Daniel certainly didn't display that fear and it paid off big time. As StatsMan said, a significant offer with a lack of upside potential is worth dealing whenever it arrives. It just doesn't normally arrive at this stage in the game.

Power5, there was only ever one week with three third-offer Deals... in April, with Philip (the supposed Wakeyist), Rita (a pure targetist) and Anne-Marie (very generous offer for a relatively weak board, and this was the moment the show really was out-and-out Wakeyist - the very next game saw a third offer No Deal of £8,888 on a board with a sub-£10k mean, followed by a five-box Deal on an all-red final five for 70% of the mean, proof if proof were needed that there was irrational fear to play to eight-box then if you ask me!).

Perhaps things have improved. Were any of you in the audience for episodes that taped between Laura's game and that week of third-offer Deals (which seemed to be the beginning of the end for Wakeyist play)? Because that strikes me as the time when external pressure was at its strongest.

All blue round with 6 blues and 5 reds is about a 12% chance.

Talking of percentages, this is the sequence of the % of the mean that Daniel's offers were:

51%, 67%, 78% (dealt), 75%, 75%, 78%.

In pure gameplay terms, I don't think I've enjoyed an episode of DOND as much for ages. It's no coincidence that 2 of the most prominent statisticians on the show (Aaron and Daniel) have both got exceptional offers from the banker. Some may say it isn't fair on other players who have been given low offers that have forced them into all or peanuts games but the banker has often catered his offers based on the player's personality or financial needs. If the banker knows that he can't get away with poor offers, then the player has a huge advantage if the luck goes with him.

I see Noel is now equating a 25% success rate as "very rare" (this was the 9th OPW from 3rd offer deals). I suspect this will be not significantly different to the % of OPW's from all games.

Daniel - I'm afraid the generosity of the offer you dealt wasn't even in the top 5 at 11 box (2 have actually been above the mean).

Most generous offer (according to mean):
16-3-2007 Sheran (£30,000 – 106.1% of the mean)
2-2-2007 Dennis (£15,001 – 101.9% of the mean)
15-2-2007 Tim (£9000 – 99.6% of the mean)
21-1-2007 Ryan (£7500 – 94.8% of the mean)
2-4-2007 Tess (£10,000 – 94.0% of the mean)

(stats courtesy of Mister Al's highlight thread).

Daniel - you are truly a DOND legend. Glad you enjoyed spending your winnings.

Well Dan, I have just watched your game and I have to say it, it was a corker!!!!! You really did yourself, and Lucy proud!

It was always going to be a great game, and it was always going to have an extra element to it - I thought your face on your offers was excellent!!!!!!!!!

You played the game true to yourself, and you did what was right for you - good on you for believing in yourself and not giving into the unsaid pressure of keeping on going. I think there were a lot of people there that thought because of your numbers brain, you were going to gamble. We had chats about it didnt we, and I think we were quite similar in that we were always going to say "thank you and goodbye" when our amounts came up! It was so great though when your prove out justified your decision, it couldnt have been better!!!

You deserve every penny of that money in my opinion for the huge part you took in the show and the help you gave to everyone. I speak from experience when I say that I knew I could rely on you for help during my show and as a friend outside the studio - then, and now. You're a great guy, a great mate and I cant wait to catch up with you and our fab friends soon! ...I know you will have enjoyed watching that tonight with your family and friends and too right too!!!

The show will have quite a gap to fill from now on, I think you'll be missed!
Good on ya Dan....GET IN THERE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!