Well done Ash.. Nice chunk of dosh to take away! Maybe you can buy a new leg now for Wonky!! LOL.

Anyway.. I was just thinking. You know you get some (too many, in my opinion) 'helpful' people on the East and West wings who give advice when asked, that goes a lil something like, "..You still got 3 reds.. and 5 blues.. The chances of you taking out ALL of the big reds are so small... I would go on personally.."

Now, it's normally at this point that I shout at the telly.. It just annoys me. There are 8 boxes.. it's a 1:8 chance of picking ANY of the boxes. And if you DO pick a red, then at that point the odds revert to scratch, and you start again... Remember, the boxes have NO memories.

The first box, 1:8 of picking ANY, but as 3 of them are reds it's closer to 1 in 2.67. If I was holding a gun with 5 blanks and 3 live rounds mixed up in the barrel, I certainly wouldn't hold it to my head. And neither would ANY sane person.

So, if they did happen upon a red in the first box, you could say, 'Well, there was a good chance that would happen.." And then for the second box it's just a 1:7 of picking ANY of the boxes, regardless of what happened first time round. There is no memory - you start from scratch where the odds are concerned.

So it's 1:7 to hit any box, or now 1 in 3.5 to hit another red. That's more than 28%. Still easily hittable is far as I am concerned.

If you did hit the second red, then, again it reverts to scratch for the third box. You start again, as if the first two boxes hadn't been opened. As far as the boxes are concerned - you just this second arrived, and are picking for the first time. That's how odds work.

So it would now be just 1:6 to hit ANY of the remaining boxes. And now, it's also 1:6 to hit the final red. That's a 16.6% chance of hitting it. Again, if I was given those odds with a loaded barrel, I would not risk pulling the trigger.

It's easy for people to see through rose tinted goggles though. I just wish they would remember the two hundred or so games that went down the plug hole after the player's confidence was swayed by this 'helpful' advice, and then the next two boxes were £250k, and £75k.. etc.. and it's all over.

I am not being negative, or defeatest. I would play on myself, and even take risks for the big money - after all, it's the only way to make big money. But I would be playing on with the full knowledge that the odds favour no-one, and that I am aware of the mathematical variables in play - and that it's just as likely to go wrong, than go right.

The other thing I was thinking about, is the idea of removing all the numbers from the boxes as we play (in our minds, as it were..) and just starting with 11 blues and 11 reds. Just 2 colours. 22 boxes. All jumbled up. So, now, its a 50/50 of either hitting a red box, or a blue. The idea being, that it doesn't matter how many other blues or reds have already been opened, or what the ratio is between reds or blues currently - in your mind, it's still just 50/50. There are ONLY 2 ways this could go. It could redway, or blueway. Flip a coin...

That's just a thought.. Any opinions anyone?

I think they just like to point out the what ifs of the game...especially if something remarkable then follows...which, mostly due to the editing of the show, usually happens after said advice is given!

A good show today. As I suspected, after yesterday's 8 box deal with the necklace box only used in the proveout, the banker was bound to force the contestant on with a low offer at 8 box today.

It was brave of Ash to no deal £11,000 at 6 box as it was a high risk/low reward situation in terms of the 5 box offer,
but I'm glad it worked out for her to avoid the two Power 5 amounts and see the offer marginally increase.

To be faced with the 10% chance ultimate nightmare finish of 1p and 10p a deal at 5 box for £11,750 was a good decision regardless of the proveout.

Well done Ash on winning £11,750 enjoy the money!

I enjoyed that game because the offers have been a bit on the big side lately so the decisions were more of a game than a definate deal..

and loved how ash said noel

yes

also 24k at 8box if the 250k had stayed in do they want everyone to deal at 8 box now...

you get 25k at 5 box with 3 big power 5 amounts usually,is a new banker working and just doing stupid genrous...

You are relating hitting any red to blowing your head off?? I wouldn't pull the trigger if that was a 1:1000 shot. I think most peoples advice is generally that you are less likely to hit all 3 reds from 8 box (1.785%), whereas there is a 17.85% chance of hitting all blue. So although both could happen, it is 10 times more likely to go all blue than all red at this point (8 box).

I don't think anyone is saying that there's NO chance of hitting reds, but there is an element of risk in the game and if someone thinks it is safer to go on than stop, they will say that. I know I never told anyone that you won't hit 3 reds or wont hit the big 1 and I never heard anyone say likewise, but if it looks more likely to go one way than the other, people say so.

Of course the odds help. At 8 box in the scenario you mentioned, there is a 71% that you will hit more blues than red and getting you to a better position in the game. Before you ask, I'm not going to put a gun to my head on those odds, but it may help me decide that I want to take a chance or not.

No it isn't.

And before MisterAl, KP or Simon F pipe up, I meant 1.786% after rounding up, ha ha ha.

This is something I've been thinking about since I started watching the show (only a few weeks ago so if this has been discussed already please don't shoot me down).

You say that 'the boxes have no memories' ... I may be totally losing the plot here (maths was never my strong point), but stay with me in this theory ......


Scenario:

2 box situation.

One box has 50p, the other has £250k.

It's 50/50, 1:2, to open the table box and get the £250k right?

But having opened all the other 20 wing boxes you've still not found the £250k .... the chance of not finding the £250k already is very slim (Dan ... could you give us the odds on that?).
Therefore it's more likely that the £250k is the table box ... much better than 50/50.

Am I right on this ... or did I manage to blag my GCSE maths?

What happens if there are only reds left on the board? Do you still advise thinking of it as being a 50% chance of revealing a blue in that circumstance?

The thing is, odds update and change as the game reveals. Theres a 1 in 11 chance of leaving the 250k until the last two boxes, but as the game goes on, the odds alter, so once you get through the first round, your odds improve, then second, and so on and so on.

Think about it, you said "Therefore it's more likely that the £250k is the table box", but using that logic, the same would apply for finding the 50p. With two possible outcomes, they can't both be more likely than 1/2.

...which is, of course, the whole point of the game!

(This discussion reminds me of a thread from ages and ages and ages ago...)

Nope. The odds are 50/50. What has happened in order to get that 2 box situation has no relevance to the odds of what is on the table.

Good show today, with well pitched offers that weren't immediately takeable or declinable. I think she used the heart necklace at about the right time for the board (although there is no way of knowing this for sure) - the board was still evenly balanced with blues and reds, and the presence of the 1p and the 10p would've discouraged me from going to the end, so the 'double offer' sequence was the best powerplay option for her, and you can't really fault her £11,750 deal on that board.

Knocking out the £75k (a 60% chance) would've resulted in a offer at least £4k less (lower if we believe the proveout offer), so you basically have a 40% chance of getting more by opening the box. Ok, in both cases it is significantly more, but I don't like those odds. Add to that a 30% of an all-blue finish (and a disastrously low one at that), a that's a pretty certain deal from me.

Good game, well played all round, really.

True. That's where my maths failed me.

This statistical discussion is starting to baffle evn me....

But that was a good show. Ash had been one of my faves on the wings, if a little overshadowed by Walter and some of the others, and I absolutely loved her, so was quite pleased she dealt, especially with an Igor/4p Mark finish a possibility. With the two lowest blues there, the banker could have played a nasty trick at 2-box if a red remained with one of those two as well (which he would have done) - and doing an Orry (swapping for a power 5 for a deceased sibling's birthday box which contained a tiny sum) could well have happened.

It's a shame the necklace offer didn't work, but I wouldn't have a clue when to play it myself - maybe just do it first box then you can play a normal game!

Given that she hit the 75k first box after the deal meant any subsequent offer using the necklace would have been less anyway!

(I bet poor Daniel was stressed out the number of times he got asked for advice too!!)

I'm gonna miss Ash...and the ABBA moment was absolutely legendary!

Three words: Monty Hall Problem. Difference here; 10/11 chance you don't get to the swap-or-no-swap finish, compared to 0 for the Monty Hall Problem.

Anyway - no real arguments about this win!

Is this similar to the Monty Don Problem, which is how to stop slugs eating your veg?

Is this similar to the Monty Python Problem, which is how to stop random heads eating the Holy Grail with the sound of coconuts in the background?

HAH! That's a great UK reference, but the Monty Hall Problem relates to a US game show (hosted by, yes, Monty Hall) called Let's Make A Deal, a feature of which at one point involved a player winning whatever was behind one of three curtains. One had a car, two had goats (yes). The contestant would choose a curtain, and then Monty Hall would reveal one of the other two... to contain a goat. Because he does so in full knowledge this will happen (if only you could do that with DoND and blues eh?) the probability of your initial choice of curtain having the car is not 1/2, it is 1/3 - because that is the probability you chose the car in the first place, and if you choose one curtain with a goat the host must reveal the other and the swap is guaranteed to work!)...

...this doesn't apply in DoND though because the reveals up to two-box are done fairly. (We believe, assume and fervently hope! )

Personally I'd have labelled the Monty Python Problem as how to prevent wafffffer thin mints causing people to explode... but each to their own!!