Would it really? I would have dealt.

And again, the biggie comes to the table, thats amazing..cant believe it. But in no way is she a coward, i can't fault her for dealing. The board could have easily swung the other way.

Jo Jo was nice, not much of a character in the wings but nice in her game.
Well done.

And basic: if you don't like the show then just don't watch and don't post..simple really. A show isn't losing it just because people deal.

And the egg idea is good, not too much but a nice little twist.

If Jo-Jo had of gone on and ended up with 10p ? we'd of all said she should have taken the 20k. It's a no win game when your sitting in the chair.
Enjoy the money Jo and don't regret...

Aitch,

But your analysis shows that there was only a 40% chance of the offer increasing after the following round. If you class a 30% chance as 'incredibly low', then I'm guessing a 40% chance is still regarded as 'low' in your eyes, yes? And with only a low chance of an increase, your analysis is clearly suggesting a Deal to be the right course of action.

Very, very good spot there MisterAl!

They both count as 'significant' chances to my eyes, although that's a bit of a *beep* of the word strictly speaking.

The expected value of the No Deal lottery coming in about ten grand higher than the expected value of the Deal lottery does rather suggest it was a disputable decision - enough of a risk premium for a gambler to go for it, but nowhere near enough to make it a clear-cut decision with a 30% disaster chance.

Not at all. I said a numerous amount of times that there was a 70% chance of a minimum of £15,000 (give or take) if the player carried on and then within that, a 40% chance of the offer being significantly higher than £20,000.

My basis was that it was well worth the punt with the 70% chance of 5 figures and more, and a not so likely 40% chance of a significant increase (£50,000 and beyond) but that chance of significant increase being higher than the 30% chance of significant decrease.

The only significant loss would have been through the 30% chance of a blue finish. So if we count the £15,000 offers on 50k finishes as near sticks, that's pretty much a 30% chance of a lower offer and a 70% chance of sticking or bettering your last offer. Which is why it was worth carrying on.

Except even you admit it wouldn't have been a stick. Your argument is about as weak as you think the Deal was, and I say that in spite of the fact I think there was a good case for No Dealing today.

Well, I'm not sure I'd necessarily class a potential drop from £20k to £15k as a 'near stick' (it's a 25% decrease). Ignoring that though, you've given a good argument as to why continuing would have been a justifiable decision.

On the other hand, the 30% chance of absolute disaster gives a justifiable reason to Deal. (A 30% chance really cannot reasonably be described as 'incredibly low' in my opinion.)

But that's the thing about this game. Quite often either choice is justifiable. That's one of the reasons why it's so fascinating to watch.

As long as the £250.000 was on the board i would go to the end, i was never that fortunate.

Well, I'd have definitely carried on with that board, despite 3 blues remaining at 5-box, as I'd be looking for a guaranteed £30,000+ at least with the 50k and 250k remaining. If the 250k went, I be hoping I'd have a get-out of £15k should the £50k stay, and would far more regret not taking the risk there, I think.

I think this egg twist is skewed too far to the banker's advantage (though you aint seen nothin' yet!), and will lead to more forcing offers. There's no limit to the mind games he can play over the next few days, and I don't see the contestant benefitting too much.

Although having said I would have a strong urge to no-deal, I can understand Jo Jo dealing with a 30% chance of an all-blue finish and therefore next to nothing and I respect her decision, especially with all the good egg/ bad egg mind games going on. Wakeyists conveniently forget when caution wins the day on this show - the 6 OPWs from 11-box deals being prime examples of that.

Anyway, enjoy the money, Jo Jo!

....if my aunty had boll***s etc...

im gutted for her but £20k is £20k.

Missed the yesterday due to having better things to do (watching Leeds Rhinos massacre Bradford yesterday evening) so only caught up with it today.

Not much more I can add that hasn't been said in the thread already. All I can say is that unlike many people who have had the £250k in their box recently, a £250k win today was in the boundaries of being possible without having to take a reckless gamble. The 5 box decision certainly was borderline.