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KP

PostPosted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:04 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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mike wrote:
In all honesty though I think I would of taken the risk myself. Why? Because so few people get to a position like that and for me I would just want to go for it and get that rush when £250,000 is revealed with everyone cheering and the confetti raining down and Noel announcing "you are our 2nd £250,000 winner!". Of course it could of easily gone the other way and I could end up going home with £3,000 but I feel that I would be happy with myself and knowing that at least I tried. Maybe it'd be foolish of me to do that, believe me turning down £60,000 would not of been easy.


Implicitly, you have implied that it was actually harder for him to Deal than to No Deal at that point. To go against the obvious psychological pressure (from within and without) and the allure of the clearly favourable pot odds takes a courage of a very different kind.

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Tom

PostPosted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:13 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject:

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Wow, what another brilliant game. That was very tense.

Matt was a really nice guy, with a lot more courage than i personally thought he would have so well done to him.

I don't really care that he had the £250,000 in his box. Because £60,000 is fantastic money (and in terms of this year, the most that has been won) and frankly anyone who doesn't respect the offer and seriously contemplate it is in my view greedy. I'm much happier seeing him win £60k than seeing him win £3k...


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pat_east_wing

PostPosted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 10:33 pm    Author: pat_east_wing    Post subject: well done Matt
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Enjoy your 60k Matt,pity you did nt take the gamble knowing you could have won the big one but you still had a good sum,well done.

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StuartPlymouth

PostPosted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:20 pm    Author: StuartPlymouth    Post subject:
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GUTTED! I'm sure he thought long and hard about going on. The temptation must be amazing to deal when there is a chance of going away with £3K.

I have lots of pics, because it was such an interesting game - so apologies in advance for clogging up the thread! :?

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Muinimula

PostPosted: Fri Mar 14, 2008 11:21 pm    Author: Muinimula    Post subject:
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Lathebault and SrWilson often have such a narrow viewpoint of this game. Can't they appreciate that at 11-box, there was a £230,000 drop from the top value to the next highest? To continue a further 3 rounds in that situation is pretty good going in my book, but oh no it's still not brave enough for them. Oh well.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:38 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject:
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If we use the analysis we had yesterday about expected offers from 5 box, £60K is certainly generous. If we take the maximum offers we can expect from the banker

£250k/£20k and £250k/£15k - somewhere between £90k-£100k (we've had enough £20k/£250k finishes to know that this is pretty good guess)
£250k / anything else - being generous £75k
£20k/£15k - £17k offer
£20k/£3k - £10k offer
£20k/£500 - £8k offer
£15k/£3k - £8k offer
£3k/£500 - £1,500.

Expected 2 box offer = (20% x £95k) + (30% x £75k) + (10% x (£17k+£10K+£8k+£8k+£1.5k)

I make that just short of £46k.


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SrWilson

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 1:34 am    Author: SrWilson    Post subject:
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Muinimula wrote:
Lathebault and SrWilson often have such a narrow viewpoint of this game. Can't they appreciate that at 11-box, there was a £230,000 drop from the top value to the next highest? To continue a further 3 rounds in that situation is pretty good going in my book, but oh no it's still not brave enough for them. Oh well.



Erm he was brave I am so glad he ND that GHASTLY 26K but the final offer was *beep* for that final pairing derisory really so I think most people would have gone for it, just like I think everyone would have in Laura's game.
He took the derisory offer and then looked a fool when the 250K was opened.

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garylq

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 2:47 am    Author: garylq    Post subject:
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So near yet so far. A shame Matty didnt have the courage at 2 box that he had at 5 box.

Okay, £62,000 is a lot to risk, but for a shot at £190,000 on a 50/50 chance is a gamble worth taking in my book. Its not as if you are staking your own money, the worst you can do is walk ot £3,000 better off than you walked in.

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Rich D

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:07 am    Author: Rich D    Post subject:

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One of the best games in ages. Well done on the £60K, Matt!

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kestral

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:27 am    Author: kestral    Post subject:
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SrWilson wrote:
Muinimula wrote:
Lathebault and SrWilson often have such a narrow viewpoint of this game. Can't they appreciate that at 11-box, there was a £230,000 drop from the top value to the next highest? To continue a further 3 rounds in that situation is pretty good going in my book, but oh no it's still not brave enough for them. Oh well.



Erm he was brave I am so glad he ND that GHASTLY 26K but the final offer was *beep* for that final pairing derisory really so I think most people would have gone for it, just like I think everyone would have in Laura's game.
He took the derisory offer and then looked a fool when the 250K was opened.

You have such a way with words! I think fool is way out of line as a description for the revelation of the £250,000! Yes, in the end you can say Matt made the wrong the decision in taking the £60,000 offer and not going on and opening his box, but calling him a fool is uncalled for!

You wonder why people take an agressive stance against your posts? It's your choice of words that incite this, and wonder what your reaction would be if we went around describing you as a fool on your decisions in games?

You seem to forget that in Laura's game she has openly admitted that if the offer was over £50,000 she would have taken the offer and not gone on to open her box, and therefore denied us our only £250,000 winner to date. Once you go over the £50,000 mark with the chance of such a large drop back to a couple of thousand or even hundreds, then it does prove a challenge for the average person to risk this.

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Lewis246

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 10:49 am    Author: Lewis246    Post subject:

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kestral wrote:
I think fool is way out of line as a description for the revelation of the £250,000! Yes, in the end you can say Matt made the wrong the decision in taking the £60,000 offer and not going on and opening his box, but calling him a fool is uncalled for!


Indeed, that's why I said he wouldn't even reach his own game if he got on the show. I don't think calling the other contestants and their families names or laughing when someone's decision goes wrong would go down too well with the others...


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SrWilson

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:25 am    Author: SrWilson    Post subject:
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I said he looked a fool not that he was one.

And Lewis I do not always laugh I just cannot belive some of the decisions half the time when its so obvious to continue, or people influence them to deal only to squander a power5.

If I got on the show i'd be able to keep my feelings in check get to my game win the big money and then once im home I can say what I wish.

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croftrock

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:34 am    Author: croftrock    Post subject:

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What an absolute corking cracker of a game!

I'd like to make two friendly points to "Sr Wilson".

1. Why do you spoil it for yourself by deciding a game is "ruined" when someone misses out on big money? For all normal viewers the "Oh no! He had it!!!" moment is a huge part of the entertainment. It's the reason they showed you "What you could have won" on Bullseye. You are clearly far braver than most people; so why can't you take a bit of illicit pleasure in a loss rather than ranting about how it renders the show unwatchable?

2. You need to look up "derisory". You use it daily and it appears that you have no idea what it means.

Sixty thousand pounds is life changing- or certainly was for Matt and that's all that matters. Betting 60K on a one off coin flip means gambling with your future, regardless of odds. Most pot odds in deal are irrelevant because you get one shot only. If I got offered 60K on that board and I got to play deal twice; I'd gamble. But with just one shot; I'd deal in a heartbeat. Because the calculation is no longer mathematical; it's emotional. It's personal. And that's what people watch the show for.

Everyone is different and decisions that you think are really easy aren't for others. That's what makes deal so "discussable". Genuinely, I always feel sorry when I read how you think Laura was handed the 1/4 mil. You're only spoiling it for yourself. I watched that show on tentahooks and I felt how incredibly hard and brave that last decision was for her and it made me enjoy that show 100% more.

So have a bit of empathy and enjoy!


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BlairM

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:39 am    Author: BlairM    Post subject:

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Like someone else posted, I am so so glad Matt had the balls to no deal £26k, someone with just an ounce less courage would have dealt that and would have had 2 big regrets.

I think £60k was a fair enough deal though. Player Matty in the game made a good point at 5 box I think it was, the worst case scenario is you go home with £500, and when the £250k is there it was worth the gamble.


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wokoman88

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 11:46 am    Author: wokoman88    Post subject:

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In reality another Quarter Million win will only come in one of two ways, a really poor offer on the final two (£60,000 wasn't brilliant, but it was better than £45,000) or a complete no lose situation (See Kirsty and Kelsie). I believe, and I think the majority would agree, that Matt's game fitted neither situation.


Srwilson, I'm interested, what offer in your opinion would go from being poor to reasonable on this final two? As I seem to remember you saying you'd have dealt Maria(1)'s £75,000. (Or did you only say that because she actually had £3,000 ;) )

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alexandercbrown

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:06 pm    Author: alexandercbrown    Post subject:

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I've always said if Laura had no dealt 60-65K I'd have bought that a fair bit more than 45K.
60K was more on a david J level IMO - low but dealable for a lot of folk.

anyway sort of disappointing but I'm reasonably happy - he's only the 4th person to get to the final 2 with the biggie on the table and the game has created an interesting talking point.


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VENTRESS!

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 12:39 pm    Author: VENTRESS!    Post subject:
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A great win for a great player, well done Matt!


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SrWilson

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 2:50 pm    Author: SrWilson    Post subject:
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wokoman88 wrote:
In reality another Quarter Million win will only come in one of two ways, a really poor offer on the final two (£60,000 wasn't brilliant, but it was better than £45,000) or a complete no lose situation (See Kirsty and Kelsie). I believe, and I think the majority would agree, that Matt's game fitted neither situation.


Srwilson, I'm interested, what offer in your opinion would go from being poor to reasonable on this final two? As I seem to remember you saying you'd have dealt Maria(1)'s £75,000. (Or did you only say that because she actually had £3,000 ;) )


75 k upwards would be a reasonable offer for that pair. I might have gambled in Marias game but had the offer been 85K or more id be tempted to deal then.

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jiveclive

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:09 pm    Author: jiveclive    Post subject:
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garylq wrote:
So near yet so far. A shame Matty didnt have the courage at 2 box that he had at 5 box.

Okay, £62,000 is a lot to risk, but for a shot at £190,000 on a 50/50 chance is a gamble worth taking in my book. Its not as if you are staking your own money, the worst you can do is walk ot £3,000 better off than you walked in.


Hey Gary what's Australia like?

You know what they say about Australia 'Where the men are men..and so are the women' :-D

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Brick

PostPosted: Sat Mar 15, 2008 4:29 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject:
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I'd read the spoiler and a bit of me thought "Great, finally someone's going to win over £50k! That should please a few people!" and another bit of me thought, "If that's what he wins though, it'll be by a deal - probably when a few people would've said go on..."

Reading the thread today (was working yesterday so didn't see it), I'd never have suspected a big win from the early rounds but as the game went on things started to come clear... but worst fears were confirmed when I got to his box being opened. It's difficult to say what I'd have done, but Alex is right by likening it to David J's game, and it's still a lot of money and Matt played a good game to get it!

On an entirely separate issue, anyone remember the Bloodhound Gang? Matt doesn't half remind me of their singer...


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