I know what you mean but I don't agree. With a all red final five the mean would've been 20k, 21k and that offer was over the mean so it would've great when she dealt but there was more in her box now I don't want to be Jeremy Kyle or anything but may I just say you are pathetic about judging other people on what they do and how they do it I read it on your unsatisfactory comments about Ken's game. She dealt but could've had 50k more and Ken did the same. Get over it.

75K On the table 2 games in a row wow!

Couldn't agree more, well said lathebault.

Very ok thanks

Like I said, just my opinion of course....Laughable I know

All is forgiven...as long as you promise not to drink during the day anymore!!!

You make a very interesting point anyway - the way people have been playing the game, I'd laugh if the Banker offered something less than the lowest amount left and they DEALT!

But she had a good chance of getting significant money if she carried on, and a decent chance of a massive increase. (20k/50k, 20k/75k, 50k,75k finishes) and for the very minimal chance of the worst possible situation you aren't leaving with nothing (a 3k offer) which is only a bit lower than yesterday's feeble deal.

I'd class today's deal as insane as Di's no deal.

Don't divorce me, lathebault!!!

Well what would you expect she was old

Oh why don't you put a sock in it...

Day after day we put up with your endless moaning about how no-one plays your perfect game, why do you continue watching if the show doesn't deliver what you need

Live with the fact that there are millions of people in the real world who will play the game differently than yourself. They live with the decision they make in their game, why can't you!?!

Once again, I'm glad to be potentially insane then.



What's that supposed to mean?

Oh my god.. I don't know why I said that it was just that a younger person would look at that board and say I could have another go but at Jean she looked at it and said give up.

Because I want to watch the show (as pre-primetime entertainment game show) but the questionable deals really are making for unpleasant viewing. The fact we've had a very bad run isn't helping me anyway

Hold me against this if you want, but once we get a great gamble paying off i'd be a lot more nicer towards a good deal. The run's just killing me and I want to watch it broken!

jiveclive, be yourself! We all know you're not a Wakey-ist so just be yourself!

And Kes, just coz H left you to babysit and commentate doesn't mean you can be rude to fellow members!

Good point anyways - this is a fan site - if you're a fan of the show, annoyed with deals or not, you should get behind the show instead of slating it off - who knows, maybe then people like lathebault would get a bye on the show and be publicly humilia...I mean, win big! FLAME FLAME FLAME!!!

And just because H has left doesn't mean you have to comment on everything everyone says and tell them what to do.

I caught the last 10 minutes of this game and have to say, I thought she should have gone on because only the 10% chance of disaster would've really ruined her- and from what I've read here, £6,000 was her lowest offer and only a £1,000/£5,000 offer would've produced a lower one. It'd have been £61,000 or £75,000 for me today, depending on whether the "fame" of dealing a unique amount or the urge for that extra £14,000 was stronger.

Dang!

Nearly 5 months it's been since we had a mega win...

Correct me if I'm wrong, but is that the first all-power 5 finish we've had so far this year? Every time a power 5 amount's come to the table this year it seems to often end up with a blue or low red! A few come to mind, but Jean's, Martin's and possibly Justin's are the only finishes with a big money box in play I'd have taken a chance on. There could be more I've forgotten, but those ones stick out.

I'd have won 75k today dead easy once all the blues have gone its worth going all the way and offer of 25k with 20k fall back 50k and 75k there its a no brainer to go for it.
And of course NO ONE would take the 61K offer so...

Ah well im just glad she was courageous at 8 box.

Sorry but I felt the need to make a stats sum-up

£1,000
£5,000
£20,000
£50,000
£75,000

(Yep, all reds left so dealing only 5k above the third highest value already looks a mistake, even with utility. I wouldn't be too gutted losing £25,000 for £1,000.)

So the finish breakdowns:

Finishes------- Within the region of
£1,000/£5,000 - £3,000 offer LOWER
£1,000/£20,000- £9,000 offer LOWER
£1,000/£50,000- £21,000 offer LOWER (not a massive decrease)
£1,000/£75,000- £25,000 offer STICK
£5,000/£20,000- £12,000 offer LOWER
£5,000/£50,000- £25,000 offer STICK
£5,000/£75,000- £32,000 offer HIGHER
£20,000/£50,000-£35,000 offer HIGHER
£20,000/£75,000-£40,000 offer HIGHER
£50,000/£75,000-£61,000 offer HIGHER

Stats:
40% chance overall of a lower offer but broken down...
10% chance of disaster (even though it's not really a disaster in this case)
30% chance of a lower offer but still around 5 figure sums
20% chance of a stick
40% chance higher offer
20% chance of winning £75,000 if you're looking to play to the end
10% chance dream finale (two power 5 and a 60k offer)

Important stats:
90% chance of significant money by carrying on
10% of low 4 figure sum
40% chance of a lower offer
40% chance of a higher offer
60% chance of anything £25,000 or over (significant)
10% chance of a £3,000 offer as the worst case scenario
10% chance dream finale (two power 5 and a 60k offer)

Estimated offers versus actual offer:
The mean of the offers I imagine the banker would offer on those finishes was... £27,000 if my maths is correct.. done by head so probably not! But most certainly higher than £25,000. That offer was on the low end of what could have been offered, I feel.

So using these statistics and the basis that she dealt on an all red final five, it really was a mistake to deal both psychologically and statistically.

WOW lathebault you should get a Nobel Peace Prize

Its not that that's apparently annoyed members, it's sometimes the way you make your point, is all.

OK, you did at least look at this final five the right way before spinning it, latheboult.

Well, actually no you didn't, because the first thing you said was 'I wouldn't be too gutted losing £25,000 for £1,000.' I would. A grand would be a holiday, or my singing and piano lessons paid for the next two years, or my accommodation paid off for the next term, but only one of the above. It'd probably just go in the bank and stay there, easing pressure at uni a bit but not doing much else. £25,000 would probably change my life in the short term, and I could then make it change my life in the long term.

I wouldn't reckon on over £20k on a £1k/£50k finish, and £1k/£20k might be a smidge lower; a stick on £1k/£75k or £5k/£50k sounds about right, as indeed do the rest. Although the only ones I'd even consider No Dealing are the £40k and £61k. Oh and the £12k I might turn down.

It's 40% chance of an increase (but only a 20% chance of more than an extra ten grand), 40% chance of a drop (but only a 20% chance of a drop to four figures), 20% chance of a stick, and the mean of your proposed offers is £26,300. Given that I think a couple - only a couple - of those offers are a bit high, call it £26,000.

That instantly means that if you'd take any of those offers, as I would, you're actually looking at to all intents and purposes a 96%-of-the-mean offer. Heck, it was generous enough as a percentage of the actual mean, though it rather needed to be. I'd have expected £26,000 myself, especially as that was the sum of the three lowest on the board, but the offer was just about right. I'd take it, but replace £75,000 with £100,000 and I'm going on. (Hmm, that's not the first time I've said that this month...)

Psychologically, the easy call - with five reds and one Wakeyist host - was to No Deal. She made the difficult call. Statistically, she made a very sound call - for me, if you're turning down that £25,000 you're pretty much playing for your box, and if you're prepared to slip to £1,000 as latheboult is, it's not stupid to play on with two higher and one barely lower, but I'd have taken it. Usually Deals come when the risk is too big for the reward to be chased. For me, this would have been a Deal because the reward is too small for the risk to be faced. If you get my drift. Turn that £75,000 into £100,000, the reward becomes worthwhile again on my utility curve. Your mileage may vary.

It's certainly not a decision to go ape over. You want a Deal to round upon? Try Michael's a few months back. Or, heck, Kelsie's - she took barely any more with the oranges and £50k replaced by two blues and £250k - I wouldn't even have considered a Deal there. This was a decision with sound arguments in either direction.