OK fair enough, it's interesting that box 22 has appeared in 250K active play final 2s before with varying outcomes.

Claudine, Laura, Graeme, Rodney etc.

Anyway well done on the 22K tracy you played further than I thought you would so well done and you sold a 10p box for 22K sod what Noel says hypo swaps do not matter since your out of play.

Basic I do not drink hardly but I do need the odd pint now and then to cool down so I'll join you to recover from this one lol - Not Tracy, the fact people would take a derisory 44K lol. IMO anyway so do not flame me people .

No matter how much you BELIEVE the £250k is in your box, it won't make it go in there.

£44,000 is a heck of alot more money than 10p, id take it anyday then risk winning 10p.

exactly didn't graeme think 250K was in box 22. the swap today complicated things so criticism is a bit harsh.

I know Tracy was probably caught up in the emotions of the game - but to go on a game show and walk away with 22,000 pounds when it cud have been 1p - her reaction makes me slightly annoyed. Just think of poor Rob from yesterday.

22 is my favorite box but I personally would never swap in a 250k final two even if it was the one I left because I could not bare to give the money away. I think alot of people would feel like that.

Until you sit in the chair, and play the game, theories are exactly that - just theories. And they often go out the window once the game starts! Speaking from personal experience, I know Rich wanted me there for his game, cos even though it was his game, the money was for us and our future. I think Tracy did well, and 22K will help her and her fiance get set up in life (a wedding maybe??)

so you would have advised tracy to no deal and win 10p or swap? I'm confused.

True, she reminded me a bit of Teary Donna from last December... it was a similar game and she was like her in character in some ways... playing on the "dopey" thing...

I just trying to say if you REALLY belive its in box whatever then you should stick to your guns.

Grahame reluctantly dealed you could tell he really wanted to go for it and it turned out in hindsight he did the right thing.

But even if the 250K is not in the box in question just by preserving it till the end and the 250K remains its brought you the money and as long as its a really good offer and a very low fall back then go go go get out, if you have a high fall back or feel the offer is not enough follow your feeling to the end. Thats what I say.

Had she no dealed despite the fact I like 22 and its due big money I would still say to her DON'T SWAP at the tv because she would be inconsolable if she had gave it away.

Now if she passionatly with all her heart belived it was in there and she wanted to swap and it worked i'd be delighted for her.

We do not need to even argue this since she would have taken the derisory 44K anyway.

thats fine. I'm saying I don't think it would have been ridiculous to deal a poor offer if she was in a quandry over the swap.

and when you say 'worked' does that mean you judge things a lot on hindsight.

Well it seemed to me her heart was set on swapping but as I said earlier she clearly had commitments her child fiance etc and that was all the banker needed hence he knew something as low as 44K would easily get her out.
But I think anyone who had not got too many comittments like that if any at all would confidently take the gamble I know I would and my loved ones would encourage me to.

This was Tracy's couple weeks fame - on national T.V. every day and walking away with 22,000 - she could have shown bit more gratitude.

I know everyone's been focusing on the aftermath of the deal, but wasn't that one of those funny 'draw' games, where the player sold the box for exactly half the highest offer, but had less in their box? Or something like that?

I haven't seen the game yet (I'm at work), but I seriously doubt she would have said 'No Deal' at £44k, as it was too much for her to risk going away with 10p. In cases like that, it's pointless rubbing it in about how much the contestant 'could have won', because they were never going to go past the final offer anyway.

Yes she said she'd have dealt £44k.

And the thing about what the contestant could've won is probably best highlighted in Spiky Paul's game, when Noel went on about how he could've been the first ever quarter millionaire. That's if he'd turned down a fifth offer of £42,000 with the 1p still in play, and then no dealt the final offer of £84,000 on a £100 vs £250k final two... and then swapped. Noel does talk utter *beep* at times.

i didn't think it worked out too badly today as the 2 box scenario wouldn't have been too bad, it's not like had 20K vs 250k where it would have been easier to gamble, it was a bit of quandry and yes spiky paul's game was the beginning of noel's wakeyist transition and hypothetical craziness.

Noel's been silly before though. 'if jay had left that box with the 250K to the end he would have been offered the swap'. and a few other times

He did it in Nev's game too!

ok she was more sure about leaving box 22 to the end, it's a bit different but it's not a complete gameplay disaster.

Wow, biggest Today's Show thread this month so far!

I think the thing with the £22,000 offer at the final five is that the £250k is hypnotic. You think "Ooh, if I go on and keep it in play then the offer will be bigger" but if you take it out, then, well, there goes the £22k. Offers at the final five with only one higher on the board need to be seriously considered, and turning that down and having a 10p v £500 final two would have been a seriously bad game!

If she had swapped then she'd have equalled Sarah's record for the best swap ever, but £22,000 is still a brill sum! Well done Tracy, enjoy every penny!

Here's more analysis, this time for Tracy's game.

In the first half of the game, Tracy showed confidence and a willingness to play, as the offers were low. The next offer, changed things quickly.

Boxes: 11 ( 0.10 5 10 250 500 750 5,000 15,000 20,000 100,000 250,000 )
Offer: 15,000 ( 42% )
Average: 35,592
Balance: 207 to 70,977
2-box average: 35% of time above current, 36% of time above offer.

This is a good offer for the board, the reason is two-fold.

First, a player is unlikely to deal here, because of the presence of 5 good reds, and has good possible expectations. What the banker is really looking for here, is information on whether she is willing to deal.

Secondly, the banker can tweak the offer percentage in the future, relative to the average, based on the above. This prevents the banker from making overly-generous offers when is not warranted.

The tactic worked so well here, that he became confident that she couldn't go all the way without a great board. And because this is unlikely to happen, he subsequently pegged the percentage for future offers around the same.


Boxes: 8 ( 0.10 10 250 500 5,000 20,000 100,000 250,000 )
Offer: 20,001 ( 43% )
Average: 46,970
Balance: 190 to 93,750
2-box average: 46% of time above current, 46% of time above offer.

With the last offer, Tracy showed signs of weakness, and was a lot more tempted to deal here. The banker knows it is just a matter of time before she deals, so long as the board doesn't improve too much, he should be fine.


Boxes: 5 ( 0.10 500 5,000 20,000 250,000 )
Offer: 22,000 ( 40% )
Average: 55,100
Balance: 1,200 to 109,000
2-box average: 40% of time above current, 40% of time above offer.

Why not offer £26,000 here, which would make a cast-iron deal? Because he doesn't need to.

The board looks strong, and I would be tempted to play on here. But as KP mentioned, the potential drop was just too great for her.

If we look at the balance in percentage terms, relative to the offer...

Balance: 5% to 495%

... and with at best a 1 in 5 chance of £250,000 even if you went all the way, then risking potentially 95% of the offer would enter gambling territory.


Boxes: 2 ( 0.10 250,000 )
Proveout offer: 44,000 ( 35% )
Average: 125,000

In this scenario, one of ten possible, she would have dealt for £44,000. This is worse value than the offer before, but one which many here, including myself, would accept.

In the ten scenarios, she would needed to have won more than £220,000 total, to justify no dealing at 5-box. (Note: If a player no deals in a scenario, then the average amount is considered won.)

Of course, we can only guess what would have happened in the other nine. My guess is that there would be too little value for her playing on.

Have I really typed this much?! Well, I found it interesting. Just shows what the banker has up his sleeve, really.

Good game Tracy, enjoy the £22,000 with the family.