Just caught the last 15 minutes of the show. That was a hard fall for Gillian. Here come the stats.
Boxes: 17 (
0.01 0.50 1 5 10 50 100 500 750 1,000 3,000 15,000 20,000 35,000 50,000 75,000 100,000 )
Offer:
10,400 ( 59% )
Average:
17,672
Balance:
123 to
35,221
2-box average:
38% of time above current,
45% of time above offer.
If anyone wanted to have minimised risk in their game, and have instant money, then this would be the offer to deal. Nearly 60% of the average already!
You could feign strength on the wings, and secure a nice amount. Even with the balance figures above, in which you consider that this offer is the last one, is dealable to some.
Note that the £100 here, is amount 7 of 17 on the board. Consider this when going all the way.
Boxes: 11 (
0.01 5 10 100 750 1,000 15,000 20,000 35,000 50,000 75,000 )
Offer:
12,500 ( 70% )
Average:
17,897
Balance:
248 to
35,545
2-box average:
40% of time above current,
51% of time above offer.
Another good offer. The board's strengthened, so a no deal is fine here. This reminds me of when many good offers were made in the past, and all were refused.
Boxes: 8 (
0.01 10 100 750 15,000 20,000 35,000 50,000 )
Offer:
11,500 ( 76% )
Average:
15,108
Balance:
215 to
30,000
2-box average:
50% of time above current,
50% of time above offer.
The moment of truth. More strengthening, though the average is less. The offer is very dealable, and for some, I would recommend it. Myself, I would no deal. That said, extracting money from this board if you dealt later, would be like drawing blood from a stone.
Though things went wrong after this, the original decision was sound. The 4/56 chance of losing 3 of the top 4, and 1/56 3 of the top 3, was unfortunate. Also, the odds of losing all 4 of the top 4 by 2-box from 8-box, is 6/28. Again, worth considering in your game.
And Noel said what I had been thinking before, the "Mummies" are "cursed" (though I would call them "coincidentally unlucky".)
Good play Gillian, though shame it wasn't more.