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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:05 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?
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Possibly £4,300 at 5-box (I think it was over 70% of the mean), but tempting to play on with only two boxes to open. If so then definitely £8,500 at 3-box.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:22 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?
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Most probably £4,300 at 5-box. Definite deals at 3 and 2 box though.

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2023 7:49 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?
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I don't know which of the last three offers I'd have taken but definitely one of them. Probably 5-box given the 10% disaster chance that rises to 30% if the endgame you're playing for is the increasingly expected 2-box AMO, which may be the only case for turning the preceding two offers down but is a pretty strong one...

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matt26

PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2023 8:03 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?

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Reluctant deal at 4.31k. Had I gone on 8.4k would've been a much easier deal.


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James1978

PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2023 8:04 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?

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Toss-up between £4,300 and £8,400.

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2023 8:24 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?

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Probably £8,400, if not then I'd have taken the now-inevitable AMO bailout of £2,650.

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BankerSpanker

PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2023 5:57 pm    Author: BankerSpanker    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?
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Jane W: £6,800 at 8-box. I expected around £5,000 at that point and the board was way too volatile to go on. If I did play on, then DEFINITELY £3,000 at 3-box.

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2023 5:57 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?
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Jane: £3,000 at 3 box

Marginal given how silly this Banker has gotten with 2 box offers but after a marginal no deal at 8 box and not loads to gain I wouldn't have been keen to risk it still.

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Davao

PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:06 pm    Author: Davao    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?

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Id have dealt the £3,000 at 3 box


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h2005

PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2023 6:23 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?
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Most likely £3k at 3-box.

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KP

PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:06 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?
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Even with these late-game offers I might have taken £6,800 given how isolated the £100k was - you really were locked into leaning on endgame generosity if you were going to turn that one down!

Failing that, same as Jane actually - while 3-box was close to the mean itself there was more (i.e. any) value to be extracted than there should have been because you can genuinely rely on a 2-box AMO at this point against this incompetent Banker, and the worst-case scenario was going to be... well I was thinking it might be £1,500 and somehow even that was too low. :smt046 Really you had to think of that 3-box offer as a final offer on a £1,500/£4,000/£6,000 final three, and £3k is actually quite an easy ND if you do that, but it's so ridiculous to think of it that way that I can't blame anyone for assuming you can't...

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matt26

PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2023 8:20 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?

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Deal at 6.8k. Even with the banker's late game generosity that massive gap would have spooked me into taking it.

Hypothetically, if I hadn't taken that, I'd have done what Jane did. 3k was very generous, but given you could reasonably expect a decent bailout regardless of the final two, on those stakes I'd have gone for it.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Fri Dec 08, 2023 9:35 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?

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If it was higher stakes and at similar generosity, I'd probably have gotten out at 3-box, but again knowing this Banker's trends I'd have played on and got the silly bailout of £1,600 at 2-box :P

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hogwild94

PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2023 8:01 pm    Author: hogwild94    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?
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Sophia: £4k or £1,750

Simon: £5,600 or £3,100

Chaniece: £14,500

Reece: £8,400

Jane: £2,100 or £3,000

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James1978

PostPosted: Sat Dec 09, 2023 8:38 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?

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If you could rely on AMO 2-box offers then quite honestly I think I'd have gambled to that point for Jane's game.

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2023 5:53 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?
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Pete: £45,750 at 3 box :D

With this Banker's late game offer trends there was only a 10% of a big drop at 5 box.

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2023 5:56 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?
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Probably £21.2k at 5-box.

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BankerSpanker

PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2023 5:57 pm    Author: BankerSpanker    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?
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£45,750 at 3-box.

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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2023 6:02 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?

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It would have been one extreme or the other for me today - either same deal as Pete (hopefully not but 3 very low blues might have scared me) or all the way to the 2-box AMO. No deal the £21,200 for the same reason as Ben, and even the £45k I thought the worst scenario was something like £30k on usual banker form even if the £100k went.

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Mon Dec 11, 2023 7:15 pm    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: What would you have DONE today?

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Yeah I think that would've been £62,250 for me there. I was probably getting something like £28k-£30k if the £100k went and that would've been more than enough for a bailout!

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