This should be interesting. Basically, what do you think classifies as a cautious deal?

And, also, do you think Tony's deal would fall into the 'cautious' category? I don't think so, but some may. (You have seven days to vote, BTW).

No prizes for guessing what choice I made.

I was disappointed when Tony dealt that £72k - but I wouldn't say it was a cautious deal.

As for the deals that I would classify as cautious?

(1) The vast majority of 11-box deals
(2) Any deal on an 8-box board with at least six reds
(3) Most deals on an 8-box board with at least six blues
(4) Any deal with at least four amounts on the board that are bigger
(5) Any deal with three amounts bigger, plus at least one very good fallback amount (that includes any amount that is the same as the offer)
(6) Most deals with the top 3 all still there
(7) Most 2-box deals for less than half the mean

Richard's deal, of course, falls into categories 1, 4 and 6, while £1k Michael's deal is a perfect example of one that falls into category 3, and £18k Laura's deal is a similarly perfect example of one falling into categories 2 and 5.

As for a deal that falls into category 7? Look no further than Brian on 9 February, who dealt at £2k on a 1p/£15k finish - although it turned out to be the right move.

If you apply the % generosity today to various red/blue finishes, it corresponds to

£28,800 on a £100k final 2
£21,600 on a £75k final 2
£14,400 on a £50k final 2
£10,080 on a £35k final 2

I'd count most of those as sensible deals but the question wasn't about sensibility but I don't think they are overly cautious.

Seems I am currently the only one who thinks it was

not an obvious 'cautious'....but the chance to be the first male QM is such an amazing
title...i would feel COMPELLED to 'no deal'...have belief in my story...and JUST GO FOR IT!!
Tony was offered a lot less than Corrinne on a 1p/250k finish....and she TRULY deserves
to be called 'brave'-a word much overused...so yes Tony was cautious...he had his chance
to be the first male QM....but didnt have the 'belief' when it truly mattered...

I wonder if Tony would have regretted going on and possibly winning £500 more than what actually happened ?

My definition of a cautious deal is one which falls significantly below what could reasonably be defined (statistically and/or by convention) as a fair value for the board.

Some people take deals that are statistically fair/good decisions for the board and then go on to find a higher amount in their box. Others take deals when most would have gambled, but the cautiousness pays off, and some take big gambles that sometimes pay off, and others have taken lesser gambles that haven't.

For me - the title of being the first male QM isn't worth risking £71,500 for (but then I'm quite an introverted person who wouldn't particularly want the fame)

If you can really call it fame, aside from fans of the show would anyone else care or even notice. Even Noel and the Banker would stop talking about it after a while.

Shame that the Yes and No in the poll can't be the other way around.

yes Mark-it seems that being 'sensible' and 'mathematical' is the way so many view the game.
i agree that more contestants like Rich,Corrinne,Gurpal,are needed to give the show the DRAMA,the SUSPENSE,
that makes great tv.to get a QM,male or female,the player-unless ur Suzanne,who had an amazing board-needs to
take RISKS...Tony was a very likeable bloke,and i would have been overjoyed if he had won the 250k...the search
for the first male QM continues....one day....

Voting over.

Majority consider Tony's deal not to be cautious.

Probably because £500 wouldn't be much of a consolation from 72k.

Obviously, it is frustrating to see someone miss out on the 250k, but there was still a 50% chance of him not having it. Had he left one of the big sums to the end, chances are he'd have won it.

Seems I and whoever else voted yes.. think it was cautious.

DAM!

I missed out on the poll! Anyway, though I probably would have had a shot at it, I don't think Tony's deal was cautious as such.

If I had magical powers I would swap the Yes & No around.

Or just swap where the £250k and the blue were in his show (because would you still count it a cautious deal had he sold a blue?)

Nope.

Well that just completely invalidates what you just said... Declining £72k regardless of box contents is bravery/madness (however you want to see it)