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1-4 | 9-12

The question is:

What is the lowest amount you would consider Dealing in this situation, and what is the lowest amount you would be certain of Dealing in this situation?

That's the question, here's your situations...

Situation 5
1p
10p
50p
£1
£5,000
£15,000
£75,000
£100,000
Regular play, three to open

Situation 6
£5
£50
£500
£50,000
£250,000
Regular play, three to open

Situation 7
£5
£50
£500
£50,000
£250,000
Extra offers will be made at four-box and three-box

Situation 8
£5
£10
£50
£3,000
£20,000
£35,000
£50,000
£75,000
Regular play, three to open

5) Consider £10k, dealing £15k
6) Consider £15k, dealing £20k
7) Consider £20k, dealing £25k
Consider £12k, dealing £17k

5. I would begin considering offers from £12,500, and certainly take £20,000.
6. £16,500 considered, £25,000 cert.
7. Same as 6. Gains with extra offers are limited to how generous the banker/producer is on the day, and even then, the board is too unstable to warrant a large deviation from behaviour, despite the one-to-open. A guarantee would have to be provided to make me consider no dealing for more.
8. £13,000 considered, £17,500 cert.

5. Consider £10k, definitely deal £15k.
6. Consider £18k, definitely deal £23k.
7. Similar but I'd want to know what he'd offer next box if you found a blue.
8. Consider £14k, definitely deal £18k.

5. Consider = £18,000. Definitely = £30,000
6. Consider = £20,000. Definitely = £50,000
7. Consider = £30,000. Definitely = £60,000
8. Consider = £17,000. Defintely = £30,000

As I said before, I would consider the offers around 70% of the mean but definatly deal around 90% of the mean

Situation 5 =
Consider - 12k
Certain - 25k

Situation 6 =
Consider - 15k
Certain - 30k

Situation 7 =
Consider - 20k
Certain - 45k

Situation 8 =
Consider - 17k
Certain - 30k

5) Consider £12,500 - Definite £20,000.
6) Consider £20,000 - Definite £40,000.
7) Consider £25,000 - Definite £50,000.
8) Consider £15,000 - Definite £25,000.

Slightly unrealistic outlook on 8 there, but I'm pretty sure that I'm playing on anyway with 2010 offers. I don't value much difference between 6 and 7 here - if you do continue one box at a time and miss the biggie, in 2010 you wouldn't expect offers to launch, and you'd probably get £17,500 on 6 and £23,000 on 7. One blue takes your £23k up to £30k - another taking you to about £45k and Blue/£250k would most likely result in a stick, Blue/£50k would probably get you back to the early teens, and £50k/£250k would probably get £120k -- and I would be playing for this finale. That said, I'd take anything over £50k at 3-box (Blue/£50k/£250k) and 2-box (Blue/£250k).

5 is pretty interesting. With two of the Power Five, I'm not looking to leave the game, yet, expecting to take one out, which, worst case scenario would get me to mid-high 4 figures - and I'd be playing on for the £75k or £100k at 2-box in an all-red final, or looking to leave for something sensible if I end up on Blue/£75k (possibly high teens to early twenties and I'm definitely out at £23,000) or Blue/£100k (early to mid twenties and I'm probably out for more than £25,000.)

5. Consider £7,500 Certainly £13,000
6. Consider £22,000 Certainly £27,500
7. As has been suggested, I couldn't be sure how different the offers would be on one-to-open, so same as 6.
8. Consider £16,000. Certainly £21,000

I've thought of a another (perhaps more logical) way of interpreting my EV Calculator figures from yesterday, which might be worth bearing in mind for your analysis. It is based on the figures giving 2 'definites' but for different profiles.

So, the first figure below is pretty much in line with what a 'medium-risk' player would take, and the 2nd figure more with what a 'high-risk' player would take. So, it's not quite what you're asking for, but nonetheless of some interest I think, so here's what it said for today's situations:

(Precise figures given as it's a calculator, not a human!)

(Abbreviations: MRP - Medium Risk Player HRP - High Risk Player)

5. MRP: £11,262.45 HRP: £15,954.10
6. MRP: £25,508.33 HRP: £36,802.62
7. Same as 6. I think as there are Pros and Cons to the one-to-open
8. MRP: £14,867.10 HRP: £16,930.55

Just a theory anyway, it'll be interesting whether we might be able to work out profile types from this in the long run. Anyway, interpret what you will from this!

1p
10p
50p
£1
£5,000
£15,000
£75,000
£100,000

Consider £12 500
Deal - £16 500

5: 12k/15k
6: 30k/40k
7: 35k/45k - I think one to open is a slight advantage, but it's not altering my numbers too much
8: 13k/15k

5. £11,000, £17,000
6. £20,000, £35,000
7. Similar probably but would need some hint of a guarantee.
8. £15,000, £21,000.

5. 20k/22k
6/ 40k/50k
7/ 40k/50k
8/ 18k/22k

5. 12k / 15k
6. 14k / 17k
7. 16k / 20k
8. 15k / 20k

5. £11k/£15k
6. £15k/£20k
7. £18k/£25k
8. £15k/£19k

5) Consider: £9,000, Definitely: £12,000
6) Consider: £12,500, Definitely: £24,500
7) Consider: £14,000, Definitely: £26,000
8. Consider: £8,000, Definitely: £11,250