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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 3:41 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: I put all my faith in Slovenia and look what it did to me
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Last week, utterly convinced by the utter inability of the England side (weren't you?) and completely startled by the 13/2 available on Slovenia to beat them in Port Elizabeth, I lumped £200 on them, to exploit the free bet offer from Bet365 to the max.

Of course, England turned up for the one and only time all tournament in that match, and my 'free bet bonus' turned out to have the nasty catch that I had to roll through my deposit and bonus three times. That's both, three times. Meaning I had to place £1,000 in bets before I could withdraw anything. Now, I could have quit there and taken the £200 loss. But no, I'd basically been given a Free Go. A Bookie's Gamble, if you like.

And I could split the bets anyway I liked so I didn't have to bet in £200 lumps, so I thought 'oh, what the hell, I should be able to come close to breaking even, and I'm going to have a lot of fun trying'. So for all intents and purposes, we begin here, with £1,000

I soon started to wish I did have to bet in £200 lumps when I put £30 at 7/2 on the Dutch to win in 90 minutes against Brazil for my first bet. :p The winning streak continued with £11.11 on Uruguay-Ghana to go to extra time at 5/2, leaving me about £130 up on the day.

The thing with sports betting, that is completely absent from lotteries and casino games (which I still avoid like the plague), is the element of skill. Or, perhaps being more fair, the entertainment derived from predictions. As someone who has never supported a team, it gives me the adrenaline rush and feeling of belonging that I have long lacked, making every game that much more exciting - and it only takes a few quid to do that. Now, finally, I truly understand the kick people get out of gambling - and because I'm betting with sums I can afford to lose (I have significant savings for someone my age, and a well-paid secure job with excellent prospects starting in September) and avoiding wild outside bets the likes of which are common in horse racing, I feel very able to take a chance knowing that in the long-run I will probably, at worst, be nursing modest losses. The utility derived from the added excitement provided in my sports-watching (and the added sports-watching itself from Bet365's streaming of everything from Australia's NRL to the Filipino basketball league - yes, really) is arguably worth it - it's certainly a lot better than spending it on beer, as far as I'm concerned!

(Deal or No Deal has a semi-skill element, certainly in terms of reading the board and playing the psychological battles, but it lives only within itself. Sports betting lives within a wider universe of discussion about sport, and to me that's much more interesting, much as I have loved Deal or No Deal.)

On this little thread, I'll be keeping you all in touch with my predictions, and possibly inviting you all to offer advice...!

SUMMARY AS OF 1530 BST, JULY 3 2010
Turnover: £241.11 (£1,000 required before withdrawal)
Returns so far: £173.89
Active bets: £20 treble: Serena Williams to win final @ 1.16 / Rafael Nadal to win final @ 1.3 / more than 2.5 goals in Germany-Argentina @ 1.95 - returns £59.15

So excuse me, I'm off to cheer all the attacking players in Cape Town! :

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Last edited by KP on Sat Jul 03, 2010 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 3:59 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: I put all my faith in Slovenia and look what it did to me
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Williams has won 6-3 6-2

One third there already!

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Lifelong fan of Vicky, Siobhan and Lisa

Resident divvy, keeps a nerdy eye on the UK Top 10, makes up the numbers in the forum Fantasy Football...

...and overseeing The 2010 Forum Wing Line-Up! Check it out in the Contestants section of the forum!


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 4:51 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: I put all my faith in Slovenia and look what it did to me
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Two out of three with the 4-0 scoreline in Cape Town!

Now a decision. A tenner on Berdych to win at 5/2 would guarantee me a profit... do I play the safety game, or let it ride?

Safety game it is. Put a couple of more speculative punts on at small stakes - sufficiently small that I'm still guaranteed to come away from the weekend with a small profit, but sufficiently generous as to be potentially lucrative:

SUMMARY AS OF 1740 BST, JULY 3 2010
Turnover: £241.11 (£1,000 required before withdrawal)
Returns so far: £173.89
Active bets:
a) £20 treble: Serena Williams to win final @ 1.16 / Rafael Nadal to win final @ 1.3 / more than 2.5 goals in Germany-Argentina @ 1.95 - returns £59.15
b) £5.55 single: Paraguay to beat Spain in 90 minutes @ 9.50 - returns £52.73
c) £10 single: Tomas Berdych to win final @ 3.50 - returns £35 (saver for bet a)
d) £6 single: Uruguay to win the World Cup @ 11.00 - returns £66

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Last edited by KP on Sat Jul 03, 2010 6:13 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 5:35 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: I put all my faith in Slovenia and look what it did to me
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They're suggesting Berdych will at least win a set, looking at the odds for Nadal to win 3-0...so if Berdych wins the first set, he'll have the momentum...only Rafa's stamina would win him the match from there...I say go for it!

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Lifelong fan of Vicky, Siobhan and Lisa

Resident divvy, keeps a nerdy eye on the UK Top 10, makes up the numbers in the forum Fantasy Football...

...and overseeing The 2010 Forum Wing Line-Up! Check it out in the Contestants section of the forum!


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jul 03, 2010 6:14 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: I put all my faith in Slovenia and look what it did to me
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As posted above, the safety-first option is locked in. There's other opportunities for speculating out there, courtesy of the two remaining South American sides in the World Cup. :)

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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