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KP

PostPosted: Fri Apr 10, 2009 11:43 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Six-Shift on MSN with Big Davey playing
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This was a game played in an MSN window but was so remarkable it had to be recapped.

First shift - 50p replaced by 4p

Banker's offer:

£4,444


NO DEAL

ROUND 1
3 - £250
20 - £100
12 - £35,000
9 - £10,000
13 -£500

Second shift - £5,000 replaced by £7,500

Banker's offer:

£15,000 + two eggs


If both bad eggs are found, the offer is a random huge shift down from £15,000. NO DEAL

ROUND 2
19 - £10
8 - £50
15 - £250,000

Third shift - £1,000 replaced by £55,000

Second round board
1p
4p
10p
£1
£5
£750

£3,000
£7,500
£15,000
£20,000
£50,000
£55,000
£75,000
£100,000


Banker's offer:

£20,000


NO DEAL. I'd personally be gone here.

ROUND 3
5 -4p
21 - £75,000
18 - £100,000

Fourth shift - £55,000 becomes £17,500

The third offer was 86% of the mean...

Banker's offer:

86p


NO DEAL

ROUND 4
6 - £17,500
10 - £50,000
14 - £5

Fifth shift - £3,000 becomes Nothing

Eight-box
Nothing
1p
10p
£1
£750

£7,500
£15,000
£20,000


Banker's offer:

£4,000


DEAL.

ROUND 5
17 - 1p
1 - £7,500
7 - 10p

Sixth shift - £15,000 becomes £13,013

Banker's offer would've been:

£13,013 + two eggs


If either is the good egg the offer would become 13p.

ROUND 6
16 - Nothing
11 - £20,000
22 - £750

Final two of £1 vs £13,013, Seventh Shift would have been accepted...

£13,013

would have become

£350,000

Yes.

Banker's offer would've been:

£13,013 + two eggs


If either was the good egg the offer becomes £125,001

Box 2 (Davey's own) contained £350,000 (4 had £1).

Thanks to the twist, an ordinary should-have-gone-sooner bailout turns into a failure so epic it makes Tolleck's look tiny.

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I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Skyline

PostPosted: Sat Apr 11, 2009 9:36 am    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: Six-Shift on MSN with Big Davey playing
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Joined: Wed Jul 23, 2008 10:42 pm
Location: London
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:o :smt023

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