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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » KP's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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KP

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:05 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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Next prediction might be the most important...

Box 14 - £10! We could be dealing with some rather big numbers...

Box 15 - £35,000. Is that the end of the damage? It's a brilliant situation if it is...

Box 17 - £75,000! Sadly, it's not. But you've kept those two six-figure sums and there's still some other backup...

1p
£125,000.50
£1
£30,005
£100
£500
£750

£1,000
£20,000
£55,000
£120,000


This board would be perilous in a "regular game," but it sure isn't here... how high will the Banker have gone after that?

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JDGA

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:08 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]

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This one feels like a tough prediction to make... hopefully it works out.

PLAYER'S PREDICTION

£17,000


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:11 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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I little high I think. I would've predicted £14,000.

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:12 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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BANKER'S OFFER

£15,500



That will do. It's only 10% out, and that's good enough to make the CAR replace the second-lowest percentage...

BOX 23 OPTIONS
14%
114%
164%
214%
314%
+£16,000
ADD CAR


You'd get to open 23 if you wanted if you dealt this... £15,500, Deal or No Deal?

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:16 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]

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Damn, that's a seriously nice 23. Just one big loss on it... heh~
This board's made particularly interesting by the near-doubled maximum value. For that alone... I think I have to say NO DEAL!
13, 10, 9 next up~

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KP

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:23 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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There's still an awful lot of money to gain with that 23...

Box 13 - £750! Now half the board consists of £20k+ boxes...

Box 10 - £1,000! Make that a majority!

Box 9 - £1! Well, how about that?

1p
£125,000.50
£30,005
£100
£500

£20,000
£55,000
£120,000

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:24 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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BANKER'S OFFER

£35,500 FIXED



OR

BANKER'S OFFER

£26,500 + BOX 23


_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Wed Oct 05, 2016 4:32 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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On a board this stable, I'd almost certainly go another round!

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The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 1:36 am    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]

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...oops, sorry, I fell asleep >_<
That's a really good offer, and honestly, I don't think it's going to be easy to improve on. Though the chance of disaster is low, a typical roubd won't see improvement, and there's a lot of risk if we lose a lot of the middle values, evem if we keep the big two intact. It may be very difficult to get a huge drop, but it's also difficult to get a huge increase. I'm running the numbers over and over in my head here, and while my gut's telling me to deal, I think I've managed to talk myself out of it. Welp, here we go...
NO DEAL, and we'll go with boxes 7, 8, and 20.

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Thu Oct 06, 2016 3:01 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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I don't think it was a good idea to admit that your gut was telling you to Deal. :eyes:

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The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:38 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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Maybe this ends up not being your last No Deal if the Banker seizes on that last remark... but with multiple huge sums of money there, maybe that will be a good thing? So many ways this can go...

Box 7 - £30,005. We don't really know what that means yet, which says a lot about the position you're in. We're looking for the real blues now...

Box 8 - £55,000! Now we really want one of those...

Box 20 - £20,000! Well, well. Now you have a 60% chance your box contains £500 or less... but if it doesn't, it's got six figures.

1p
£125,000.50
£100
£500

£120,000

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:44 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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This is a very difficult offer for the Banker to pitch. And he's got to do it twice.

BANKER'S OFFER

£17,000 + CAR FIXED



OR

BANKER'S OFFER

£17,000 + BOX 23


_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2016 12:56 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
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This is... a very tough offer, yes. I suppose the simplest way to break it down...
10% chance of dream finish (DREAAAAAAAAAAM)
30% chance of total disaster
60% chance of nasty final two

I think with the board the way it is, and that offer... it's a strange board this game's given us, but I think there's too much merit in going after six figures when there's still two lots of them. NO DEAL!
And boxes... 12, 6, and 19.

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KP

PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:16 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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Well, there we go. We are going to 2-box indeed.

We know what we're scared of...

Box 12 - £100! AND IT ISN'T THAT!!

Well, unless you're the Banker...

This box to guarantee there's something worth playing for at 2-box...

Box 6 - 1p!! IT'S ON!!

Worst-case scenario still has £120k in the final two. Best-case scenario means you take a pair of six-figure boxes to the final two and only 23 can hurt you.

Here we go...

Box 19 - £120,000!

It's the best all-blue finish ever. £500 vs £125,000.50. Talk about the power of the Purpliser in action...

_________________
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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:17 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
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...welp.

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You know the wind will always come back.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:21 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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The things to bear in mind here are numerous. Let's start by reminding you of this, which will be applied to either the £500 or the £125,000.50 if you say No Deal to both offers...

BOX 23 OPTIONS
14%
ADD CAR
114%
164%
214%
314%
+£16,000


That would not be applied to this offer...

BANKER'S OFFER

£42,000 FIXED



But it would be applied to this...

BANKER'S OFFER

£32,000 + BOX 23


_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:27 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
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...well, if I want six figures, Box 23 now offers it to me. :P A slightly smaller payout on the big one, but a much lower disaster chance (and a better payout even if it happens). When you factor in that there's plenty of other good possibilities there as well (and most of them do better than the fixed offer as well), I don't think there's really much question in this one. That's a REALLY strong offer, and I'd like to make use of it. DEAL £32k + 23, thankyou!

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Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:30 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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So, you're taking £32,000 to Box 23!

If you'd decided otherwise, you'd be taking your box contents there. What were they?

Box 22 had...

£500!

Box 1 had the £125,000.50 and your timing is impossible to argue with! Now, let's see what kind of win it actually converts to...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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JDGA

PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:48 pm    Author: JDGA    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]

Joined: Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm
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Option 4 for Box 23~

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Strongly opinionated or barely invested, but a constant
You know the wind will always come back.


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Oct 15, 2016 1:50 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP's Series 2.0 | Game #2 [Leah]
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BOX 23 OPTIONS
14% - £4,480
ADD CAR - £32,000 + Nissan Leaf
114% - £36,480
164% - £52,480
214% - £68,480
314% - £100,480
+£16,000 - £48,000


Here we go...

There were 7 items in your list. Here they are in random order:

314% - £100,480
14% - £4,480
214% - £68,480
ADD CAR - £32,000 + Nissan Leaf
+£16,000 - £48,000
164% - £52,480
114% - £36,480

IP: 86.15.173.210
Timestamp: 2016-10-15 12:50:15 UTC

LEAH'S FINAL WINNINGS: £32,000 + Nissan Leaf

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
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