Leah plays Aaron's DoND [47 - Secret Game]

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

So we saw David take the Banker earlier for £54,539 and that's our current highest win, can it be topped again right now?

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Welcome back to another edition of Aaron's Secret DoND games! We have JDGA in the chair for Game 47! We've already had Mark and David play thus far, but will she now be in with a shot at playing Game 50 for a chance of £500,000 - before Box 23?! We shall find out!

Box 5 is on the table, and we need an option 1-5 to choose one of the twists!

HAPPY 2017
A TALE OF TWO BOXES
KNOWING BANKER
BLUE BUSTER
UNLIMITED MINUTES

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

JDGA wrote:

woo~
I mean, you know me, gotta be option 4

Always number 4 for you...

A TALE OF TWO BOXES

Oh boy there it is, Two Boxes is out in the Secret Games!! This could set you up so nicely to sit there for #50! All rules as per usual but you will receive your final offer at 3-box!

JDGA wrote:

oh NICE!
in which case I'll select 13 to join 5~

13 comes to the table... Leah... 5 boxes, best of luck!

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

JDGA wrote:

Alright~
10, 8, 15, 17, and 2

10 - £35,000! Less bad than usual here...

8 - £750! Nice!

15 - £10!

17 - £5! This is turning out to be a great round!

2 - £5,000!! It sure is!! BT...

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

** RING **

The Banker's not liking this at all, in our last Two Boxes games the £250k goes pretty early so hasn't had to worry about it! He does now though...

... but what does that mean for the offer? You fancy a prediction?

JDGA wrote:

Hmm...

Cash in Hand is less useful than it otherwise would be in two boxes, but it is good at forcing the offer up.

Let's do an offer button prediction with

PLAYER'S PREDICTION

£14,175

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

In with a very early prediction for the Offer Button...

BANKER'S OFFER

£17,500

Unfortunately, it's 19.00% away so it means you do not have a live Button!

It's a massive opening bid Leah, but at £17,500... Deal or No Deal?

JDGA wrote:

Was basing off slightly higher than KP's first two boxes round, since that was fairly similar... Guess the generosity's been changed up a little since then. Hmm...
I mean, it's certainly an impressive opening offer, but going to the end, I'd have better than 50% odds of doing better! So I suppose it'll be a NO DEAL, no very early bailout this game

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

NO DEAL for now! In the game for up to £500k and you've got the Banker on the back foot. Keep him there! Next 3...

JDGA wrote:

4, 21, and 22 for Round 2!

4 - £1! Great start!

21 - £20,000! Pretty much fine, really!

22...

JDGA wrote:

fffff don't start the suspense already

22 - £100!! Another fantastic round!

BT...

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

** RING **

The Banker is becoming quite scared of this board now, we've never given over £100k (not including the last two games, he adds

) so doesn't want you to be the first!

Your second offer is...

BANKER'S OFFER

£23,000

JDGA wrote:

What, is he scared of what happened with my last Archie game...?

I think he must be, and you only had one box in that game!

JDGA wrote:

Still, you've seen the metric I use to screen out offers, and I believe there's currently a 46/91 chance of doing better than that? ...well, that's just about dead on 50/50 and the strangeness of this twist means there's quite a bit more risk than usual. Still, with the top four still intact I'm not going to be talking myself into an early deal...

So NO DEAL, thankyou!

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

On we go Leah! Round 3 now...

JDGA wrote:

12, 7, and 16~

12 - £3,000!

7 - £75,000! First of the big four! Hopefully the only one..

JDGA wrote:

Hmmmmm

16 - £50! Nice end! BT...

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

** RING **

The Banker is following your method of working this out. Now, you have less than a 50/50 shot of winning that £50k...

... but he's willing to stick at

BANKER'S OFFER

£23,000

JDGA wrote:

Wow, gutsy stick on a 7/4 board

...6/5, I can't count

what do we make of that then?

JDGA wrote:

Of course, looking at the £15k and £10k kickers, I think that might be a little iffy... It's interesting, despite it being a 6/5 board there's only about an 18% chance of a blue win
of course, there's still the 5/11 chance of hitting a blue next

Conversely, the odds are weighted towards winning a red but the chance of hitting one is the same as ever...

Well, with the kickers intact on top of three P5 amounts to chase, I'd say this is still a pretty easy NO DEAL

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

Alrighty! You've already turned down £63,500 in total, let's validate that with an awesome round right here right now!

JDGA wrote:

Hahaha, don't add them up like that D: uh, let's see...

6, 14, and 18 to bring us to eight-box, an eight-box where I'll have two of the eight in my corner!

6 - £1,000! That's not in your corner!

14 - £250!! Neither is that!!

JDGA wrote:

... It'd be nice to hit one of his corner though, even if I can't take home a penny he's still got those bottom three, and if I don't start hitting those it's gonna get unstable very quickly

The top left has not yet been hit, and you've still got the big two backed up by £50,000...

Box 18...

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

** RING **

The Banker's completely shocked, he never expected a game like this where you struggled to get to £13k in your last game!

Conventionally, he would be considering around the £26-28k mark here, but he has to acknowledge the mistake he made by sticking...

BANKER'S OFFER

£46,000

... by DOUBLING you to £46,000!!

JDGA wrote:

O_O

This is why I was hoping for an offer button - that's still less than half the average XD geeze...
Well, three P5 at 8-box is a powerful position regardless of the board, but when I get two chances to win one...
Of course, it's at this point where the disaster chance starts becoming at least a little significant, but conversely, while I can worry about losing multiple P5 in the next three boxes, it's just as likely I have a round of pennies...
hmm...
Well, this is still a huge board, but to chase some TRULY mega money (plus the chance of a 50th show return)

...I had a no deal typed up ready to hit enter just then...

Suddenly I'm screaming at myself. Still... I don't think I can really talk myself into quitting here. There's a lot of money in play, but still so much more to go after...

I think this has to be a NO DEAL!

...oh god what have I just done ahaha

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

NO DEAL!! What a decision that was! 8 boxes become 5 now Leah, this is your final three-box round... Best of luck, I hope this works out for you!!

JDGA wrote:

3 11 1 time to rip my board I guess
I don't want to look...

3 - 1p!!! THE PERFECT START!!!

JDGA wrote:

YES

11 - £100,000!! Oh my...

JDGA wrote:

Aahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!

What a massive box this is now Leah, can you get there?

Box 1...

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

** RING **

The Banker has no idea what he can do here, you have a 90% chance of leaving with £15k and a 70% chance of at least £50k...

JDGA wrote:

Six figures?

... the Banker is coming in now with an offer of...

BANKER'S OFFER

£76,000

JDGA wrote:

... okay, aha...

** RING **

JDGA wrote:

Huh?

You've just panicked him there, Leah, he's never done that before...

BANKER'S OFFER

£82,000

JDGA wrote:

O-oh, heh, um... geeze, well, 40% chance of £250k. Conversely, playing on means 40% chance of wiping it out. Still, even if I do, there's the £50k kicker... But I think that offer boost might have knocked that out of kicker territory and into consolation territory... hmm...
The banker definitely doesn't want me staying in, I think...
If this were a regular show with no strings attached, I think I'd be playing on without too much hesitation, but there's the 50th show on the line here, you know? The difference between £50k and £82k feels pretty significant when it comes to that...
On the other hand if I do play on and avoid the £250k, that's six figures without question... geeze... I'm sorry for taking so long here

Not a problem! This is a huge decision with much more on the line than usual...

JDGA wrote:

My gut is saying get the hell out of here, my mind is saying BIG BUCKS NO WHAMMIES... which is a reversal from the norm, I suppose

...I've got two P5 at five box
£50k will have to be good enough if I mess up I guess... or who knows maybe my 13 box or the Random Number Goddess's 5 box will save the day...

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

OH MY GOD what a decision!!! £82,000 is gone!!

JDGA wrote:

Ahhhh I know ;_;

And now, two boxes to get you to the climax of your game...

JDGA wrote:

Well... 19 first

So so crucial... If it's £15k or less - it doesn't even matter, it's incredible news...

19...

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

JDGA wrote:

YES, 100% guaranteed £15k! Box 20...

20 to finish the round... oh boy.

£15k GUARANTEED... and if it isn't the big one, we can only imagine how massive this next offer will be!!

20...

BT...

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

** RING **

The Banker says you had him on the edge of his seat there, and commends you for such a brave decision! That's being rewarded now with a very respectable...

BANKER'S OFFER

£35,000

JDGA wrote:

Thankyou, um, I'm just gonna say DEAL so I at least keep P5

It's a DEAL for £35k!

what a game Leah, I bet the rest of them will be biting their nails through that ordeal! We're not done yet though...

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

Firstly, would you have swapped any of your boxes for Box 9?

JDGA wrote:

Nah...

Nope, then here goes...

13 - 50p
5 - £15,000! It was actually a good deal!

Box 9 actually had the £50,000!

JDGA wrote:

Wow XD
Well... that's how it is! Do I want to have some real fun with 23?

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

What. A. Game.

And my spectacular luck on the chase for #50 CONTINUES!

**Joined:** Tue Nov 11, 2014 4:23 pm **Warnings:** 0

;_;
Had I taken into account that I would have taken the deal on an X-50k finish, I think I would have stopped on 82k. Geeze... that and I started chasing six figures for some reason? Oh well~

**Joined:** Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm **Warnings:** 0

Let's look at that money menu!

Quote:

DOUBLE (£70,000)
+£15,000 (£50,000)
MONEY BACK (£35,000)
HALF (£17,500)
NOTHING (£0)

The dilemma is that this could very well be the difference between you being in the chair for Game 50 or being sat in the audience...

JDGA wrote:

Maybe, but it's EV-...
It might well be the difference, but I'm not sure I'm willing to press my luck THAT far after turning down the 3-box
NO DEAL to 23, thankyou, but option 4 it would have been

It's a NO DEAL to 23, and here's option 4...

+£15,000 (£50,000)

You'd have been back up to that £50k!

JDGA wrote:

HAH
oh well, you know, if I'd considered that in x-vs-50k I would have almost certainly dealt.
I probably would have taken the 82k... oh well XD can't argue with P5 win!

It was certainly one hell of a game Leah, thank you so much, at the end of that incredible face-off, you have £35,000!!

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These games so far have been incredible! Let's take a look at the leaderboard as it stands...

1. KP - £54,539

£35,000

£14,900

Leah takes second place after that incredibly nail-biting Two Boxes battle with the Banker, but the seat for Game 50 still belongs to KP! Archie's next up, so join us next time to see how he and Ben both fare! :smt023

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Leah plays Aaron's DoND [47 - Secret Game]

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