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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » Aaron Brock's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:22 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:23 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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** RING **

The Banker's finally finished setting up his calculator, and apologises that the last offer may have seemed a bit poor... But now he's primed and ready to get you out, and out right now!

That prediction hasn't been made yet, would you like to do so now?

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:26 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]
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£45,431.95?

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PM me to play a game of my Deal or No Deal series for a shot at $601!

The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:33 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]
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Blimey. A 2-in-11 chance of winning the jackpot - 55 2-box combinations left, 10 have £250k in.

I think I will go for the prediction, but with so much uncertainty I am going to go for something that gives me something for being as much as 25% out, namely the cash option.

PLAYER'S PREDICTION

£52,000


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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:38 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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He's made his prediction for some cash-in-hand! If it's on the nose, it's £20k. If it's within 5% it's £15k, 10% it's £10k, 15% it's £3k, 25% is a modest £500 and you get nothing if you're even more wrong than that... The Banker's third offer to you is...


BANKER'S OFFER

£48,000



... which is an error margin of 8.33% meaning you've bagged £10,000!

** RING **

In light of that, there's been a revision...

BANKER'S OFFER

£53,000



... which would bring your winnings to that infamous £63,000! Is it time to leave now?

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:42 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]
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Even the original offer was an AMO (and now I see why ACB suggested that offer :D :D) but of course the chances of winning the top amounts are greatly amplified!

The other reason I went for the cash was to try and give myself a guaranteed chunk which would give me more latitude to chase the £250k. I have that - NO DEAL!

15, 19, 21...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:45 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]
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WOW, KP of all people just turned down 117% of the average. :shock: :shock: sdgthju sdgthju ;)

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PM me to play a game of my Deal or No Deal series for a shot at $601!

The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:46 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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That ten grand has given you the adrenaline you needed to chase that jackpot! While the number of combinations is higher, there's still the same chance you can knock it out in one round... so don't do that!


15 - £3,000! Brilliant!


19 - £250!! Oh my word, what sort of an 8-box is this going to be?!


21 -
£250,000!! GAHHH, there it is!! :x


BT...

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:47 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:49 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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** RING **

The Banker's relieved to see that final box, with the double-box average ready to break into six-figures... But now he can be a little more relaxed.

BANKER'S OFFER

£31,000



But it's still a lot of money! What are you thinking David?

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:50 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]
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The amazing thing about this board is that I have practically a coinflip chance of winning £75k+ by going to the end, and close to a 2-in-3 chance of £50k. And then there's £20k!

And that's before adding the £10k!

All that's been removed is the £250k ceiling.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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 Profile  

KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:51 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]
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Lots of room to chase this. Lots of room to chase this. It has to be another NO DEAL.

11, 7, 9!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:54 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]
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I probably would've dealt the last offer, but I'd definitely go on here.

_________________
PM me to play a game of my Deal or No Deal series for a shot at $601!

The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:54 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
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On we go, I think the Banker was counting on you suffering more hits in this round, so prove him wrong!


11 - £1,000! Yep!


7 - £100,000!! It's a knock but you still have an incredible shot at one of the big two... But you have to miss them with 9 now!


9 -
£1!! EXCELLENT!! :D :D


BT...

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Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:55 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:56 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]
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And again the double-ended squeeze is applied, but with the distribution of the prizes that round was much more positive than the last one!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

Aaron Brock

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:57 am    Author: Aaron Brock    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]

Joined: Wed Feb 01, 2006 6:19 pm
Warnings: 0
** RING **

He's concerned about your will to chase the big money with a cushion to land on should all go wrong! He's nothing that for future reference, but now, he HAS to get you out.

BANKER'S OFFER

£45,000



And remember, if you play on, we only open two boxes to reach the 3-box climax... What on earth do we do now?

_________________
Eurovision enthusiast and fellow member of #teambat.


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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:58 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]
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Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:20 pm
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This is still a very powerful board, as woth the revised rules KP has a 70% chance of guaranteeing himself at least £20,000 with a 2 in 3 chance of £50,000+!

_________________
PM me to play a game of my Deal or No Deal series for a shot at $601!

The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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 Profile  

KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 12:59 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]
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By my maths, I'm not actually going to gain much more on average playing on. And with five boxes left, calculations for this situation are actually quite simple for the first time all game.

It's a DEAL, and 5 and 3 would have been the two to open...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Tue Jan 10, 2017 1:02 am    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP plays Aaron's DoND [31]
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Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:20 pm
Warnings: 0
£45,000 would be an easy Deal for me here.

_________________
PM me to play a game of my Deal or No Deal series for a shot at $601!

The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


Top
 Profile  
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