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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Jan 19, 2011 8:19 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: KP vs cfd yet again

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Board is slightly modified...

1p
£5
£10
£50
£100
£250
£500
£750

£1,000
£2,000
£3,000

£5,000
£7,500
£10,000
£15,000
£20,000
£25,000
£35,000
£50,000
£75,000
£100,000
£250,000


Choose your box. Then your first five :)


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 12:05 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again
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I'll take 17. First round: 8, 2, 4, 6, and 10.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 12:31 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
KP has box 17!

Round One

8: £75,000 - Bad start!
2: £50 - Better!
4: £35,000 - Eek
6: £10 - And a bankers power 5 reply once more!
10: 1p - And another!

The banker thought that round was going his way but you've actually eliminated 3 of the lowest 4 values on this board!

Banker's offer:

£13,652


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 1:35 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again
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Nothing dull about that round, and I think all told it fairly well cancels out. Should be able to get a decent result, anyway, so No Deal.

16, 14, 12.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 4:56 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Round Two

16: £1,000
14: £500 - Shaping up to be a good round!
12: £250,000 - Ah :(

Banker's offer:

£8,250


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 5:06 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again
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Should still be able to get a five-figure win out of this. NO DEAL.

22, 18, 20.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 11:18 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Round Three

22: £5,000
18: £25,000
20: £3,000

Banker's offer:

£8,250


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Jan 20, 2011 11:41 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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I stand by my opinion this game should produce a five-figure win; NO DEAL.

15, 19, 21.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 1:26 am    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Round Four

15: £100
19: £20,000
21: £100,000

The banker says your optimism of a 5 figure win is quite misplaced!

Banker's offer:

£5,921


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 2:11 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again
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Yes, it's looking less likely from here, but though it's far from a stingy offer, there's four higher, so it's fairly safe to chase this, and far enough from the mean that there is, in fact, something to chase. NO DEAL.

11, 13, 9.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 12:12 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Round Five

11: £10,000
13: £5
9: £2,000

The banker acknowledges that this has ended with a reasonably strong 5 box...

Banker's offer:

£8,249


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 12:53 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again
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This is more interesting. Over the median, and over half the mean, with a definite disaster chance, albeit only 10%.

I can't help but think he's using reverse psychology on me with the specific offer: make an offer that looks like it's designed to lure me on, in the hope that I respond to the incitement to gamble in the way Cee-Lo Green responds to seeing someone driving round town with the girl he loves. ;)

There's only a 10% disaster chance, and a 50% chance of an offer in five figures - NO DEAL.

7, 5, 3.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 3:03 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Let's hope it works out...

Round Six

7: £250 - Perfect start
5: £50,000 - No!
3: £750 - Phew!

£7,500 and £15,000 remaining...

You wanted 5 figures. You're not getting it!

Banker's offer:

£9,725


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 4:02 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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The Banker has just forfeited any attempt to buy that box. £7,500 is near enough the territory I have been in all game, and at these stakes the pot odds make the decision screamingly obvious - NO DEAL.

No swap either, I have the box I want on the table...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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 Profile  

cfd

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 4:16 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Erm. The banker has just realised he's made the wrong offer! He was basing it on a £5k/£15k finish! He thinks it wouldn't be fair if he didn't give you a new offer. So you do indeed get your 5 figure offer!

Banker's offer:

£10,900


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Jan 21, 2011 4:26 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again
International Forums Moderator
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
That's the right offer for the board.

£3,400 at risk, £4,100 to gain. Marginal enough that I'm taking the slightly quirky amount instead of the gamble. DEAL.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

cfd

PostPosted: Sat Jan 22, 2011 1:22 am    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Your box contained..... £7,500!

So, you sold your box at a profit, but there was more to be won had you taken the first offer.

Hang on, the banker is ringing.

It's not over!

Two orange boxes are produced. One contains the phrase "NOTHING". One contains the phrase "JUMP THE SHARK". If you wish to take the gamble you can choose either box 1 or box 2. If you select "NOTHING" then you leave with nothing. If you select "JUMP THE SHARK" your winnings are doubled.

Banker's offer:

BANKER'S SPECIAL GAMBLE


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 22, 2011 7:21 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
That just made my weekend. :D No Deal to the gamble, I am keeping what I took.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  

cfd

PostPosted: Sat Jan 22, 2011 1:20 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
So, KP's final winnings ar- oh, hang on. The banker is ringing again.

Two more boxes are produced. These ones are blue. One contains the phrase "NOTHING". One contains the phrase "I IMPLORE YOU TO TAKE THE GAMBLE". You get to select one orange box and one blue box. If you pick either of "JUMP THE SHARK" or "I IMPLORE YOU TO TAKE THE GAMBLE" then your winnings are doubled. If you select "NOTHING" from both boxes then you leave with nothing.

Banker's offer:

BANKER'S SPECIAL GAMBLE


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KP

PostPosted: Sat Jan 22, 2011 1:30 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP vs cfd yet again
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
This is a sufficiently marginal decision that my principles must win out. No Deal. *rushes to open a blue box before the Banker can ring again*

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  
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