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cfd

PostPosted: Wed Aug 19, 2009 4:43 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: KP takes on the exact same game, but with a standard board

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Ok. This game is laregly just an exercise to see how much difference the slightly better board in the previous game made.

The boxes will contain the same corresponding values as in the previous game, and we'll be taking them in the same order. It will be interesting to see how the mean/volatility changes, and how this effects the offers.

Obviously, we know that KP has £100,000 in his box, but I think we're both honest enough to not let this skew our decisions :)

So...

Round 1

13: 10p
5: £50
1: £3,000
11: £50,000
8: £20,000

Already we're seeing a difference that those low reds an make.

Banker's offer:

£11,322


We should at least go through the formalities lol. Deal, or No Deal?


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KP

PostPosted: Wed Aug 19, 2009 7:45 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP takes on the exact same game, but with a standard board
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
I'd play on here...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 2:14 am    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on the exact same game, but with a standard board

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Round 2

18: £10
20: £35,000
15: £1

So so round. Taken out 2 low blues, but also a power five amount.

Banker's offer:

£16,412


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cfd

PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 2:17 am    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on the exact same game, but with a standard board

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Interestingly, despite the offer being lower than in the other game, both in terms of an absolute value, and relative to the mean, I can't help but feel that it's a slightly more generous offer.. With the 50k/35k/20k all gone, and more blues, this board is still good, but not as strong as last time, despite the mean only being slightly lower.

I don't think I'd deal it myself, but I think it is very much dealable.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 9:23 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP takes on the exact same game, but with a standard board
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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I'd probably be a bit more tempted by it too but I'd go on for now...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 11:11 am    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on the exact same game, but with a standard board

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
Round 3

22: 50p
2: 1p
6: £5

And again we have the all blue round.

Banker's offer:

£24,613


I think this is where we see the first big change. An offer of 30k like last time just can't be justified.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 12:54 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP takes on the exact same game, but with a standard board
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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That gap to the top three would probably still be enough to take me out at £24k and change.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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cfd

PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 1:12 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: KP takes on the exact same game, but with a standard board

Joined: Mon Mar 09, 2009 6:02 pm
Location: Leeds
Warnings: 0
So, that's a deal then? :) £6,000 less than last time. New board makes quite a difference. I'll do all the proveout offers in one go.

Round 4

19: £100
17: £75,000
16: £1,000

Banker's offer would've been:

£22,937


In the previous game round 4 was the peak offer. In this game however the offer has actually dropped. Are you taking this offer in live play? I'm guessing so.

Round 5

14: £500
12: £250,000
10: £10,000

Leaving a 5-box of:

£250
£750

£5,000
£15,000
£100,000


Banker's offer would've been:

£12,572


Round 6

9: £750
7: £15,000
4: £5,000

leaving a final 2 of:

£250
£100,000

Would offer the gamble here, but for the sake of seeing what i'd offer in live play

Banker's offer would've been:

£20,059


KP's box 21, as we know, contained £100,000
Box 3 contained £250


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Aug 20, 2009 1:49 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP takes on the exact same game, but with a standard board
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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I'd still be gone at 8-box. Now, let's see how you fare on the same modified board...

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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