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Deal or No Deal forum index » DoND Activities, Games & Quizzes Forums » UK & Worldwide Forum Series » Archstered's SeriesAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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Archstered

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:43 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
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**RING**

He has to pull out all of the stops here to get you to say DEAL instead of NO DEAL.

It's a reluctant

BANKER'S OFFER

£32,000



But he doesn't want to give you that! :lol:

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:45 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336
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I think I'd reluctantly Deal here.

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The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:52 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336
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Obviously big numbers at play here both on the board and in the offer. The generosity is... solid, about 60% of the mean, I think that on a high-stakes stable board that's a level that leaves both options thoroughly viable here.

It feels like taking only £7k more than I turned down at 11-box makes that ND look a bit less smart... but it's not like I didn't do damage in round 4, so that's one reason to No Deal scrubbed.

The fact that I have four above the offer, though? That helps a lot. Even the 1-in-56 disaster round leaves me with £35k to play for, with a backup as well! That makes a real difference. The Banker simply can't go low at 5-box because at worst I'll have a two-box game!

Neither decision is wrong here. My decision is to NO DEAL!

11, 7, 9...

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
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Archstered

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:56 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
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On one hand, we have Ben, who admits he would have dealt. Then there's you, who judging by previous play, is a little less gun-ho. Nevertheless, you have decided to play on and we all hope this works out for you.

Box 11-

£500

Part of the perfect round!!

Is it too much to hope that you're going to complete one of the greatest all blue rounds EVER and take home AT LEAST £15,000 at 5 box?

Box 7-

£15,000

Well, that's also amazing!

Just where will we be after #9?

Box 9-

£35,000

Fine. That's absolutely fine.


BT

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Archstered

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:56 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
1p
£100

£50,000
£75,000
£250,000

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Archstered

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 8:58 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
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**RING**

Yet another round you've made it safe and with a higher average than three boxes prior to speaking to him.

An average just a banknote over £75,000 and a 30% chance of paying on and having at least £50,000 as a prize at the next offer.

You didn't want 25k, nor 32k.

What about..

BANKER'S OFFER

£48,000


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:03 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336
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It's tough to turn down £48,000, it's tough to take less than the median... frankly, this is tough.

Again the generosity makes it arguable either way. The clincher, though, is that I'm honestly worried that 1p will have a disproportionate impact on the final offer, even in the context of me turning down big sums of money to get that far. Also, I think that a decent rule of thumb for the less mathematically inclined is to take the second offer you're not sure about. £32k was one I wasn't sure about, and I felt that the way to go was to set my eyes on the 5-box offer knowing I couldn't have a crash in the interim.

And here we are, with a DEAL.

5, 3, 1.

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:08 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
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It's a DEAL for £48,000!

But was that the right decision? If so, you're on for one heck of a Banker Spanking!

Box 5-

£75,000

Now the quarter-mil!

Box 3-

1p

We would have been very relieved at that point..

Box 1-

£50,000

It would have been squeaky bum time with £100 v £250,000!

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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:09 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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Someone's going to be very relieved indeed at the end of this one!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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Archstered

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:09 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
**RING**

He is ABSOLUTELY NOT offering the Banker's Gamble! The memories of July 2017 are still very fresh in his mind!

BANKER'S OFFER
WOULD'VE BEEN

£65,000


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Archstered

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:11 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
Now, did you make a smart deal and sell a £100 box for £48,000 OR did The Banker buy you at just the right time, saving himself ANOTHER confetti ending and over £200,000 in cash?

Box 16-

£100

The blue was in YOUR box! Fantastic!

Box 17-

£250,000

You avoided it all the way through

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Archstered

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:12 pm    Author: Archstered    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336

Joined: Tue Aug 16, 2011 10:34 pm
Location: Bristol, UK
Warnings: 0
KP, THANK YOU for giving us a thrilling game and reminding us that Deal can still be exciting without the bells and whistles - £48,000!

Until next time, cheerio!

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29 | Retail Manager | Eurovision | Rats | Corrie | A little bit of DoND


Last edited by Archstered on Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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American Coupon Boy

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:17 pm    Author: American Coupon Boy    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336
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Joined: Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:20 pm
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And unfortunately, KP would've won the jackpot had he gone all the way. :(

Still, £48,000 is a plenty decent wedge of it. :smt023

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PM me to play a game of my Deal or No Deal series for a shot at $601!

The next series begins immediately after the premiere of the Deal or No Deal revival.


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KP

PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:29 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: KP plays Archstered's DoND 336
International Forums Moderator
User avatar

Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
Warnings: 0
Suffice to say that Box 17 did the business for me!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Top
 Profile  
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