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When would you have dealt in Tose's game?
Offer 1 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Offer 2 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Offer 3 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Offer 4 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Offer 5 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Offer 6 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Offer 7 66%  66%  [ 2 ]
Offer 8 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Not at all 33%  33%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 3
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KP

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 9:45 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: DoND: The Kytler Peninsulae - episode 3 (Tose)
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"Welcome to Deal or No Deal!" cries Beth Lapointe, now into her stride for the third episode. "We're up and away giving away a lot of money - Tk22,000 to Melinda, and it was so nearly even more. You cannot deny the stakes are high in this game, and I for one hope that we really change someone's life today. One of these twenty-four people is going to get the chance - actually, they all will over the next few weeks, but one of them is going to be playing right now!"

The names start scrolling... "It's time for you to play this wonderful game... TOSE!"

Image

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PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 10:00 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: DoND: The Kytler Peninsulae - episode 3 (Tose)
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"So, Tose. Tor-se." "Tor-se. Yes." "And you are an insurance salesman." Pantomime boos from the crowd. "Sorry, everyone, but someone has to be!" Laughter. "If only to make ourselves feel more satisfied in our own jobs," Beth suggests. More laughter. "I do actually quite like my job!", Tose insists. He's from Alaer, the major city in the south, as was opening contestant Sorrah. "And you're our first male contestant! You know, I could get all... excitable and - flirtatious and - ooh, look at you..." Beth mockingly declares, imitating the romantically hopeless title character she plays in the Kytlerian sitcom The Girl In The Other Room. This draws uproarious laughter from the audience members who get the joke, which sounds like most of them. "Oh, you fool!" Tose declares to more laughter. "Anyway! Enough, enough already! We have a serious game to play. Tose could be about to win a life-changing sum of money. And you have, it says here, a quite particular intention for the money you hope to win." "Yes. You see, to get onto the property ladder, me and my girlfriend Jamie, we bought a house that needed a lot of redecoration. Problem is, of course, we couldn't afford to redecorate it. So we're living in a house with awful wallpaper that could peel off any moment, old damp carpets, all sorts. Now we want to fix this place up, and this is our chance." "Any idea how much it will cost to do that?" "Oh, thousands. But how much to do everything? I guess that depends on what Jamie wants to redecorate with." Laughter. "And Jamie is in fact here in the studio, hello there Jamie!" "Hello!" "So, what do you want to decorate with?" "Anything that's not wallpaper?" Laughter. "Right, let's get Tose to win money for paint then!"

Formalities complete, Tose having box 21 for this game, we're away...

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Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 10:50 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: DoND: The Kytler Peninsulae - episode 3 (Tose)
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"Five boxes, then an offer from the Banker." "Starting with... 6." "Carsten, let's start the game off on the right foot with a blue value." "I do hope so."

Box 6 (Carsten) - Tk750

"Yup, that'll do." "It's not perfect, but it's near enough," Tose says. "The important thing is that it's blue, even if it's the highest one like that was. Next box?" "12." "Ellie, another blue please." "Good luck."

Box 12 (Ellie) - Tk20

"That'll do!" "Right, next one... I'll try number 22." "Paora, you're up next, and we'd like to make it three in a row. Ready?" "Ready." "Open the box."

Box 22 (Paora) - Tk300,000

Big groans, and Paora looks frustrated. "Oh, I'm so sorry... Paora, not your fault, but oh, that hurts. So unlucky. Still, Tk200,000 is there to play for, and so are all the other big red numbers." "I will try... number 5." "Iris, let's get us back on track." "I'll do my best."

Box 5 (Iris) - Tk1,000

The briefest of "oohs" interrupted by Tose sticking a thumb up as he sees there's just the four figures on that red label, and applause kicks in. "That's fine," Beth suggests. "Well, you've taken out three of the four corners if you look at the game board, and wouldn't it be something if you took out that top left corner and got rid of the toak?" "Oh yes," Tose says. Ask a stupid question, get a stupid answer. "I'll try box 16." "Harriet, we'd love the toak, but anything blue will certainly do." "You've been great company next to me. Good luck."

Box 16 (Harriet) - Tk15,000

Small groans of disappointment. "It could have been worse," Tose points out. "Yes, that it could have been. And really, you only hit one really big number there. Unfortunately, it was the really big number." "Maybe I used up most of my bad luck in one go." "Oh, I do hope so..."

The Banker rings, and inevitably insists otherwise... "Ooh, now this is interesting. He's noticed how in the first two games, you've emphasised the 'insurance', the boxes below the top amount, the safety nets if you like. And so he reckons that you will be more likely to gamble if you have more than one big amount in play, but as soon as you get to just the one, he can get you easily. And because he isn't bound to his computer entirely when making his offers, he will take that observation into account."

Tk1
Tk5
Tk10
Tk50
Tk100
Tk150
Tk200
Tk300
Tk400
Tk500

Tk2,500
Tk5,000
Tk7,500
Tk10,000
Tk25,000
Tk50,000
Tk75,000
Tk100,000
Tk200,000


Banker's offer:

Tk4,500


"If you play on, it's five more boxes to open before the next offer." Tose says that there's "no way that will be the most I can win. No way." That would be a NO DEAL, then. "A bold declaration from Tose, but will it be an accurate one? Find out after the break!"

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 11:04 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: DoND: The Kytler Peninsulae - episode 3 (Tose)
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"We're back, with Tose Misirkov playing Deal or No Deal... he's an insurance salesman, but he's a nice guy. Trust me!" Laughter. "He's trying to get money to decorate his house, and although the top prize of Tk300,000 is gone, there's an awful lot to play for still. Five boxes in this round, and we should get a better idea of where we're going after that. First box, please." "Try number 23." "Marius, a very warm welcome to the show!" "Thank you!" "You've come in to replace Melinda, of course, after she won, and every day, as one player leaves, another will enter, so tomorrow, someone new will be coming to fill Tose's place over there. But now, it's time for you to make your first contribution, by opening the box." "It's a pleasure."

Box 23 (Marius) - Tk5,000

Light applause. "We don't mind that too much," Beth says. "Let's see... number 14." "Zoe, I can see you're very eager, so let's get on with it!"

Box 14 (Zoe) - Tk25,000

"Ooh, that we didn't really want." "At least it was that one out of those five," Tose says. "No more now." "I do hope not! Where next?" "Number 10." "Right over the other end, to Aaron, and we do need some blues now, because we're getting a bit of an imbalance there! Open number 10!"

Box 10 (Aaron) - Tk200

"That's more like it!" "I am quite happy with that. Now, let's try number 19." "Marvin, our power plant technician. No accidents, please!"

Box 19 (Marvin) - Tk200,000

Big groans. Beth is in shock. "I don't believe it!" "Neither do I," Tose says. "Every game we have had so far, the two largest sums of money have not even lasted two rounds. At least we have the Tk100,000 to play for - and that one stuck around a lot longer for Sorrah and Melinda, a lot lot longer. You need to emulate that bit of their games too!" "Try number... 3." "Yvie, this game needs fixing. This is the last box of the round, and it's damage limitation already. Open the box."

Box 3 (Yvie) - Tk10,000

"It's red again!" The Banker rings up and, Beth reports, "is uncontrollably gleeful." "If I were him, I'd be the same." "He says your promise is lying in tatters."

Tk1
Tk5
Tk10
Tk50
Tk100
Tk150
Tk300
Tk400
Tk500

Tk2,500
Tk7,500
Tk50,000
Tk75,000
Tk100,000


Banker's offer:

Tk3,500


Tose says that "there are three wonderful sums of money still there, and I could still win any of them." "That, you could. It may seem like a pipedream now, but it's true." NO DEAL, of course.

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Sun Aug 12, 2012 11:22 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: DoND: The Kytler Peninsulae - episode 3 (Tose)
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"Right, only three now. Being pessimistic, fewer opportunities to do damage. Being optimistic, three chances to change this game." "And I will start with number 2." "Azeezat, we are fast running out of opportunities to do anything but hit a blue. Provide us one now."

Box 2 (Azeezat) - Tk75,000

Tose just shakes his head. "What can I say? It's not been going well!" Laughter. "There is still Tk100,000 to play for, but this is absolutely terrifying. Surely these two will be blue? Surely?" "Number... 9." "Wynke... oh my goodness me, nine blues! Four reds! Surely a blue now?" "Oh, I do hope so. You deserve better than this."

Box 9 (Wynke) - Tk5

Almost ironic cheers. "That's one! Now let's get another!" "I will try number... 11." "Jeltsje, let that last one be your guide, let's repeat it with another blue!" "Here we go..."

Box 11 (Jeltsje) - Tk150

"That's two! The dream is still alive!"

The Banker, however, says he is "still not worried, this is still a horrible board, and you are still going to be wrong."

Tk1
Tk10
Tk50
Tk100
Tk300
Tk400
Tk500

Tk2,500
Tk7,500
Tk50,000
Tk100,000


Banker's offer:

Tk4,000


Satossy says that the offer is "too far from the mean, even for a board this fragile". Tose asks Jamie "we could get by without Tk4,000 if we had to, right?", and Jamie nods in agreement; "yeah, and there's still a lot of money there if you get a bit of luck next time." NO DEAL it is. "So far, Tose has been relentlessly unlucky, and that promise is sounding hollow. But will it all change after the break?"

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 9:15 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: DoND: The Kytler Peninsulae - episode 3 (Tose)
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"Welcome back - we've got a tough task here for Tose, who's not had a lot of luck all game - he boldly declared his first offer, Tk4,500, would not be the most he could win. So far, though, it's as good as he's got from the Banker, and these three boxes are going to be absolutely crucial. Where are you going now?" "I'll try number 24." "Sharon - top of the shop on the outside, but please, please, a small number on the inside!" "You deserve some luck - hopefully you'll get some now."

Box 24 (Sharon) - Tk7,500

A momentary gasp from someone in the audience, a few groans elsewhere, hardly any applause. "That makes us even more nervous." "Maybe number... 20?" "Heath, we badly, seriously, need blues here. This game is perilous enough as it is, and that promise at the first offer is ringing ever more hollow if this is one of the two remaining big-money boxes."

Box 20 (Heath) - Tk100

"Oh, thank heavens for Heath!" "Thank you... still in this, it's not over. Now I need another one. Number 1?" "Jennifer, it's down to you to make this blue." "You can do this. Good luck."

Box 1 (Jennifer) - Tk300

"Yes, he certainly can!" The Banker says that Tose, much as he hates to admit it, was right, and now he can take this offer as "this really could be the top of the game"...

Tk1
Tk10
Tk50
Tk400
Tk500

Tk2,500
Tk50,000
Tk100,000


Banker's offer:

Tk6,500


Scott says that isn't really much more than Tk4,000 - "I bet you could live without that too, right?" "Well, yes, but..." "Then go for it!" The reaction is more laughter than applause from the audience, positive advice in an almost ridiculously blunt manner. "Well I knew what Scott thought already based on how he's been the last couple of games, so I'll ask someone else. Kathy?" "You mentioned about insurance for the gamble. You haven't got much insurance there. This might be time to stop, although I'd definitely want to play on with that much money in play." "It's a big risk to take, but you're getting a large premium on it with the offer so far from the mean," Satossy suggests. "I would take that risk." Beth reminds Tose that "you have two boxes to open - if you're really unlucky, those two will be the end of your game, but more likely, it's about whether you keep both, or only keep one and be without insurance for the rest of the game." "That is a lot of money to lose," Azeezat warns Tose. "And you could lose it so easily. You've not been lucky today, maybe this is the only chance you will get."

Tose turns to Jamie. "It wouldn't be enough to fix everything in the house, but it would be a very good start," she suggests. "We could do the bathroom and the kitchen, which need doing first, and then we can do the rest another time." "It would be nice to get everything done, but those two need it more, yes." "Take out those two, and we won't even have enough for the bathroom on its own." "Tk2,500 would do it, yes?" "But you'd not get that without going to the end and probably losing." "Yes, true."

Beth reveals the Big Red Button. "Is this too much of a risk for the insurance salesman to take? Six thousand... five hundred toaks. Tose - Deal... or No Deal?"

Tose hesitates slightly, before... closing the lid! NO DEAL!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 9:51 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: DoND: The Kytler Peninsulae - episode 3 (Tose)
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"That was a big decision for Tose, his first offer above the one he so confidently declared would not be his highest, and he very nearly took it I think. Now these two boxes are going to be oh so important. Which one will be your first pick?"

"I'll try number 4." "The big man, Elfar, with a big moment in what could still be a big game. This is so important. Blue, please!" Elfar smiles, opens the box silently, and ignores any pressure.

Box 4 (Elfar) - Tk2,500

The crowd have no idea how to react, though quite a few of them do cheer. "Goodness me... well, that's the last flash of red we can afford to see now. This absolutely has to be blue!" "Number 15." "Satossy... you know the drill, you know the importance of this one... please deliver."

Box 15 (Satossy) - Tk50

Big cheers. "Yes! We're safe!" Jamie is shown on camera looking very relieved indeed, and Tose's face is also one of relief. "Now, you turned down Tk6,500 earlier... and this is going to be rather more, I'd have thought..."

The phone rings. "Yes, this game is turning... you're thinking it's a bit like Melinda's game, with those two, yes, she had those... but she had the Tk2,500? Oh, interesting, playing that one up then?" The phone goes down. "Well... you mentioned the first offer. You agonised over that last one. This offer... is both of them combined."

Tk1
Tk10
Tk400
Tk500

Tk50,000
Tk100,000


Banker's offer:

Tk11,000


Tose says that feels very different from Tk6,500. Satossy says the board has improved and "there is still a lot to play for, but it is a better offer." "Whatever you do, just don't let anyone else talk you into it," Harriet suggests. "So is that end of discussion, then?", Beth asks Harriet, to laughter. "Oh, was I rude then? Oh, sorry!" More laughter. "No, no, it's just that you said, 'don't let anyone else talk you into it', and I was like, 'woah, so actually you're suggesting nobody else speaks? Steady on!'" Harriet just blushes and laughs.

"Serious business, though. Do you actually want any more advice?" "Only from Jamie." "I would say that'll do the whole house. I'd take it if I were making the decision. But I'm not, am I?" "If you were," Beth remarks, "then it would have been your name that appeared at the start of the game, and your face that appeared over there earlier this week!" Laughter. "Anyway..." Beth flips the lid. "You've turned down Tk4,500, you had those torrid times after that, but we've been on the up, you turned down Tk6,500, and now... at Tk11,000, Tose... Deal... or No Deal?"

Tose takes a deep breath. "Thank you... and goodnight." Down goes the button - DEAL at Tk11,000!

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 9:58 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: DoND: The Kytler Peninsulae - episode 3 (Tose)
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"That sort of money is harder to turn down when it gets this dangerous," Tose explains. "When it was only four digits, that felt like less of a big deal. Five, bigger deal." "And a bigger Deal it was, Tk11,000 is yours no matter what now, and now begins the task of proving your decision right. If you'd turned that down, there would be two boxes to open - we'll play on as if you did, in fact, turn it down. Hopefully at least one of those two will not be blue."

"Let's see. Maybe number 7?" "Kathy, our police officer... blues and twos are not what we need here, because now Tose has dealt, we want to be seeing red!" "You've done well. Good for you."

Box 7 (Kathy) - Tk400

"Ooh, but could you have done even better? If this one is blue, yes you could! One more selection. It needs to be red." "Number... 13." "Kamira, we want to show this number would have been unlucky for Tose!" "Well done. You're a good man."

Box 13 (Kamira) - Tk100,000

"Who's the good man now?", Beth cries over the cheers. "Good one, Kamira! And at this point, you would have had no insurance... and the Banker would have gone lower than his computer suggested, because of that. It would have come a long way down... in fact, cut in half!"

Tk1
Tk10
Tk500

Tk50,000

Banker's offer would've been:

Tk5,500

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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KP

PostPosted: Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:15 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: DoND: The Kytler Peninsulae - episode 3 (Tose)
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"Now, if this is the Tk50,000, you have done something the first two players could not - and taken the most money you could possibly get from the game. And that would be really, really wonderful." "Let's see - 17?" "Charles, 17... this is the moment we could confirm outright victory for Tose in his battle with the Banker. Sorrah could have had more, Melinda could have had more, but if this is Tk50,000, Tose absolutely couldn't." "Good luck."

Box 17 (Charles) - Tk1

"Exactly the other way round, unfortunately... that's what we wanted to see a lot, lot earlier." The Banker says that if the next box is blue, the final offer would have been higher, but not this one...

Tk10
Tk500

Tk50,000

Banker's offer:

Tk10,000


"Right. It's all on this one. It has to be this one. Where are we going?" "18." "Ruud... erm, don't be? Give us the red to confirm a decisive victory?" "Thank you, I guess - and yes, hope so."

Box 18 (Ruud) - Tk10

Groans from the crowd. "Oh, Tose... not the perfect outcome unfortunately..." Beth speaks to the Banker, who apparently says that "this was a game for the big gamblers. Tose did well. A big risk-taker would have done even better." How much better?

Tk500
Tk50,000

Banker's offer would've been:

Tk18,000


"And now, this could go completely the other way. The Banker, so far, may have saved money against his biggest offers, but for both of those games, he bought that box for more than it was actually worth. Is it the same again here - or has he got hold of a box worth a life-changing Tk50,000, and paid you just a fraction of that? Time to find out..."

Beth opens box 21 (Tose) - Tk50,000

Groans from the audience. "Oh... Tose! You had all that money in front of you!" Tose doesn't look too disappointed at all. "I was lucky to have that, but I was not lucky the rest of the game, so at least I was lucky once." "Scott... who has a silly, silly grin on his face... open box 8." And he does - it's like he's taking genuine pleasure at the bad result.

Box 8 (Scott) - Tk500

"I must say, Tose, you don't look disappointed. Do you have any regrets about what might have been?" "No way. To win Tk11,000 is a very good thing, and if I hadn't taken that one, then with no insurance whatsoever I would have taken the next one, which was lower." "So, really, you personally could not have played it better. You took a chance at Tk6,500, you got out right after that at Tk11,000, and if you hadn't done that you'd have ended up winning less. Well, I don't know about everyone else, but that sounds perfect to me. Bring on the decorating?" "Bring on the decorating." "Tose goes away with Tk11,000!" Applause.

"And so we leave with a happy player because he got what he wanted, a happy Banker because he saved a lot of money, a smirking Scott because he's thinking 'I told you so!' - you could say everybody's happy! It's infectious! See you tomorrow!"

_________________
Champion of RTaB S6, creator of unorthodox DoND rulesets, and founder member of #teambat.
Creator of the first DoND Live offer to be accepted.
"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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