Kathleen 25/06

**Joined:** Fri Mar 30, 2007 10:59 pm **Warnings:** 0

I know it's hard to compare with games a few months ago, when offers were considerably higher, but I'm recalling Di's game at the moment.

Board at 5-box: 10p / £100 / £15,000 / £20,000 / £250,000
Offer: £44,000

Now, I thought she was silly to turn down that amount. While she had a back-up of decent reds, she only needed to take out the top number (which is what then happened) for the offer to drastically fall. I thought the board was volatile enough to deal at that amount.

Kathleen's game, in comparison, with three box amounts larger than the offer, is a clear 'no deal' for me at £45k. If the offer had been nearer Gaz's £70k, it would have been a much more difficult decision. Obviously the Banker got her cheaply, as a lot of players would have turned £45k down with that board. Maybe the recent run of low wins inclined her to deal.

**Joined:** Wed Mar 28, 2007 10:13 pm **Warnings:** 0

alexandercbrown wrote:

KP wrote:

Firstly, great to see a big game with a big win.

Secondly, I completely agree with Will, I'd have gone to the end today and I'm a 'serial dealer' too, but also great to see Kathleen is a happy and wealthy person.

Thirdly, alexandercbrown has nailed it again. Of course Endemol want No Deals; if they didn't, Noel's 'courage' soliloquies would have gone the way of the blue chants. Also, moderate players taking calculated risks are precisely what we need. Eric was one - I can't name another in recent memory.

No, I couldn't bear to lose 45k either. But I'd know that only a very unlikely sequence of events would have made that possible - at worst, I'd have won about 6k (which is what I'd expect on 10p/Rock, and I'd take it), there was a 90% chance of a sum of money I could still do an awful lot with, and a 50% chance of a clearly higher offer (60%, if 10p/QM would have been higher - and I'd have been horrified if it wasn't). The 20% chance of an offer well into six figures, combined with the 10% chance of a 50k/100k finish where I'd turn down anything shy of an AMO and the 10% chance of the Morris/Bunney finish where I'd most likely be looking for six figures to Deal... that would have done it.

It was basically Gaz's board with a different blue, and I was thinking about Gaz's board last week thinking that my tipping point on it would be about 60k. I stand by that.

well said KP! I agree 100%. Croftrock misunderstood me. of course I like to see big finishes now and again but they should be created through fair and testing offers not manipulation. It's good in a way that Kathleen dealt the 45K as it tested her but we're sliding back into march 06 here!

I'm also worried that if they misread players with these rubbish offers we'll get a silly big finish.

I don't believe I misunderstood you at all. I just asked how you felt your set of offers would have improved today's game.

To be clear; I fail to see how an offer which is dealt can be accused of being manipulatively low. It's nonsense.

Still, big love all round!

**Posted:** Mon Jun 25, 2007 6:25 pm **Author:** basicasic **Post subject:**

This is the second draft. The first was unprintable :shock:

I took one look at Kathleen and thought ... DEAL.

I can't see any point in moaning and groaning. She was a 74 yr old biddy with as about as much daring as a dish of porridge.

It's just s*d's law that a golden board happens with nobody to take full advantage of it.

As for the bankers offer - It must be like mugging the blind.

I could cry.

**Joined:** Wed Jun 20, 2007 2:20 pm **Warnings:** 0

Yeah for a 74 year old 45,000 is nice money. Lets face is she knew she was never gonna go all the way. When she was on the wings I will be honest I thought her game wouldnt be a really big money one, So I was wrong in that respect :lol:

**Joined:** Fri Feb 24, 2006 10:04 pm **Warnings:** 0

We've had such a run of horrible games since Rodney's a couple of weeks ago, that it was just bound to happen that the great board would come along for a player who was not a gambler, and also the day after Steve's game which would probably turn the next player in the chair into Greeny whoever it was!

It's unbelievable how many times we've seen that dream finish now, but sadly never in active play. But well done Kathleen anyway, £45,000 is a lot of money. And as for those complaining about the Banker, the fact she dealt it means he played it perfectly!

**Joined:** Wed Jun 21, 2006 9:27 pm **Warnings:** 0

What a game! I might well have taken the £32k, never mind £45k.

The offers today were absolutely shocking, especially the last one. £45,000 is a lot of money, though.

**Joined:** Sat May 19, 2007 6:23 pm **Warnings:** 0

For my opinions, read my post in the 'Dream finish fan club' thread.

As for the Banker, I mentioned it in the '500 show montages' thread and no-one believed me. But today I'm sure you will agree - the banker is offering below-par offers to older players. Rodney, Violet and now Kathleen!!!

Surely I'm right now!

**Joined:** Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:36 pm **Warnings:** 0

Er, but Rodney got massive offers throughout his game...

His fifth offer was only £10k less than Kathleen's despite the fact that he had two blues and £35k to her £20k, £50k and £100k!

**Joined:** Fri Feb 24, 2006 10:04 pm **Warnings:** 0

I don't think the Banker bases offers on age, but simply on the perceived "Wakey Factor" of the player! It was obvious Rodney was a gambler, and it was only the final offer that he could have pitched higher given that fact, and even then the Banker was proved correct as he dealt it.

On the other hand, Kathleen and Violet never looked like taking big risks, but the same goes for younger contestants like Sarah from last month who the Banker sees as "dealers" so tries to get them out with low offers (and often succeeds in doing so!)

**Posted:** Mon Jun 25, 2007 8:29 pm **Author:** Tom **Post subject:**

That was a really enjoyable game! Well done Kathleen!

[I predicted the offers today very well..i couldnt believe how close i was. At most i was £1,000ish out..]

**Joined:** Tue Jan 30, 2007 11:58 pm **Warnings:** 0

an all blue round, it's been ages since we had one of those, amazing game. well done kathleen.

**Posted:** Mon Jun 25, 2007 10:14 pm **Author:** basicasic **Post subject:**

Power5 wrote:

I don't think the Banker bases offers on age, but simply on the perceived "Wakey Factor" of the player! It was obvious Rodney was a gambler, and it was only the final offer that he could have pitched higher given that fact, and even then the Banker was proved correct as he dealt it.

On the other hand, Kathleen and Violet never looked like taking big risks, but the same goes for younger contestants like Sarah from last month who the Banker sees as "dealers" so tries to get them out with low offers (and often succeeds in doing so!)

I think you've hit the nail right on the head. The fact that these offers are being dealt shows the banker is sussing the players out pretty accurately most of the time.

And I like the way the offers are at the moment. The era of inflated offers for everyone gaves us weeks/months of tedious boring early 3rd and 4th offer deals. At least players are forced to play their boards, good or bad, to get the most out of them and give us some excitement and tension.

**Joined:** Fri Feb 24, 2006 10:04 pm **Warnings:** 0

The inflated offers really started as a result of the big money games early in the year, when players seemed to think they were invincible due to Laura's game and the influence of Psychic Sarah etc. Up until March at least, there were plenty of generous offers being dismissed quickly by the contestants, as KP was only too keen to point out!

Then the luck changed and we also had a naturally cautious bunch of contestants in April-May time, but the Banker took a while to respond and so we then saw a run where there was a lack of tense and exciting games. It was obvious the low offers would be on the way back after that - and they have produced more dramatic games, although sadly a lot of the recent games have been so bad that it's been impossible to tell much about the attitude to risk of the contestants.

The important thing is that the Banker continues to respond to the circumstances and so we don't get too much of the same thing - the offers need to be testing without tempting too many into very early deals.

**Posted:** Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:11 pm **Author:** rico7 **Post subject:**

Well done Kathleen in winning £45,000.

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

I think Power5 has hit the nail on the head. This calendar year we've had a Wakey season and a Greeny season, and I wish we could have the two species coexisting more readily and cross-breeding into moderate strategy!

I'd love to construct a graph showing a moving average of 'average deal time over the last 25 shows' or something, counting take-the-box as 7 as per the Dealometer. I suspect you'd get an interesting set of trends! Personally I believe the most common Deal time should be five-box, but with a substantial number of eight-box Deals and box wins. (I'd say two-box Deals, but most of the all-the-way games will be trainwrecks, big games going to the end should be rare enough to be special without being desperately uncommon.)

Put another way - eight-box has to be a big decision, but with the most common decision being No Deal. Five-box also has to be a big decision, and maybe one where more people than not will take it, but there still have to be plenty going on to the end. And this should be done relatively naturally... eh. It's interesting.

This has been one hell of a talking point though - they're doing something right...

**Posted:** Mon Jun 25, 2007 11:54 pm **Author:** Maltus **Post subject:**

I'll admit it now - I was disappointed with the deal, for the reasons KP has outlined above. A worse case scenario of 10p/Rock, while less favourable than £45k, is not by any means an unmitigated disaster.

Kathleen was lovely, but that board was a dreamboat, and, being the selfish viewer that I am who wants to see a good game (based on calculated risks in appropriate circumstances), I really wanted to see a no-deal there, at 5-box. And I would stand by that if the board had imploded.

Am I the only one to feel sad when there is a perfect final 2 at the end but the deal has already been done?

Well done Kathleen, but tbh, today seemed like a missed opportunity. I just want someone to exploit these great boards, they don't come along very often.

KP wrote:

I think Power5 has hit the nail on the head. This calendar year we've had a Wakey season and a Greeny season, and I wish we could have the two species coexisting more readily and cross-breeding into moderate strategy!

I'd love to construct a graph showing a moving average of 'average deal time over the last 25 shows' or something, counting take-the-box as 7 as per the Dealometer. I suspect you'd get an interesting set of trends! Personally I believe the most common Deal time should be five-box, but with a substantial number of eight-box Deals and box wins. (I'd say two-box Deals, but most of the all-the-way games will be trainwrecks, big games going to the end should be rare enough to be special without being desperately uncommon.)

Put another way - eight-box has to be a big decision, but with the most common decision being No Deal. Five-box also has to be a big decision, and maybe one where more people than not will take it, but there still have to be plenty going on to the end. And this should be done relatively naturally... eh. It's interesting.

This has been one hell of a talking point though - they're doing something right...

yes, it would be good to see a moderate period with moderate players and moderate offers with lots of people going to 5 box. Some calculated gambles to 2 box on stable boards would be good too.
i wonder if kathleen's game will have had any effect on the players?

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

Maltus wrote:

I'll admit it now - I was disappointed with the deal, for the reasons KP has outlined above. A worse case scenario of 10p/Rock, while less favourable than £45k, is not by any means an unmitigated disaster.

Kathleen was lovely, but that board was a dreamboat, and, being the selfish viewer that I am who wants to see a good game (based on calculated risks in appropriate circumstances), I really wanted to see a no-deal there, at 5-box. And I would stand by that if the board had imploded.

As would I. Though that's not to say that a board like that is so good that there is no such thing as an offer that would take me out, and in this configuration I think I'd be looking for 60k. Gaz had the same board (but with a different blue) and a 70k offer - I'd have taken that.

Quote:

Am I the only one to feel sad when there is a perfect final 2 at the end but the deal has already been done?

Certainly not! The host can't contain his disappointment for a start!

Quote:

Well done Kathleen, but tbh, today seemed like a missed opportunity. I just want someone to exploit these great boards, they don't come along very often.

Same, on condition it is reasonable to do so. For Gaz it arguably wasn't; for Kathleen it unquestionably was.

**Posted:** Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:14 am **Author:** Maltus **Post subject:**

KP wrote:

Though that's not to say that a board like that is so good that there is no such thing as an offer that would take me out, and in this configuration I think I'd be looking for 60k. Gaz had the same board (but with a different blue) and a 70k offer - I'd have taken that.

Totally agree - but with 3 figures higher and a £20k backup, £45k was, in pure gameplay terms, not enough. I think anything shy of £70k and I'd have played on.

For what its worth, I think the Banker pitched this offer deliberately low to try to induce the no-deal, (which is clearly more exciting) but Kathleen was always going to take the money at that stage. She was refreshing in that respect - it was clear what she was there for and she wasn't disappointed in the proveout. She knew her own mind, so for that I won't criticise her.

**Posted:** Tue Jun 26, 2007 12:14 am **Author:** basicasic **Post subject:**

Maltus wrote:

Am I the only one to feel sad when there is a perfect final 2 at the end but the deal has already been done?
.

Of course not. I was mildly upset too. At the time if I could have reached into the TV I would have thr***led her. :shock:

But my disappointment was tempered by the fact that she was an obvious dealer from the off. The players that really annoy me are the ones that bullsh*t on the wings and during their game that they are gamblers going to the end and then deal at the first whiff of a decent offer with excellent boards in front of them. eg Steven, Kelsie and Phil!

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Kathleen 25/06

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