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jmas07

PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2007 5:47 pm    Author: jmas07    Post subject:
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KP wrote:
That was breathtaking inability to read a board as far as I'm concerned.

I don't know how many times I'm going to furiously say that when you only have two good amounts on the board at eight-box there's a near-65% chance of hitting one and a 10.7% chance of hitting both... and why is it that whenever people do realise that, they invariably not only keep both to five-box but have one of them on the table?


Ban! Ban! Ban!

Not really, I can see your point and dealing £26,062 wsas very understandable, but no one complains when you suggest someone is an idiot or whatever, and yet when I even hint towards someone being an idiot I get the brunt!

Aside from that, £26,062 was a bit better than £24,0042, but that just felt like the banker trying to make a relatively average offer look great. I suppose the 2k made the offer closer to the mean but it still felt low with two of the power 5 left and the £15,000 backup.

£100 is still nice, well done!


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kestral

PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2007 6:13 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject:
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jmas07 wrote:
KP wrote:
That was breathtaking inability to read a board as far as I'm concerned.

I don't know how many times I'm going to furiously say that when you only have two good amounts on the board at eight-box there's a near-65% chance of hitting one and a 10.7% chance of hitting both... and why is it that whenever people do realise that, they invariably not only keep both to five-box but have one of them on the table?


Ban! Ban! Ban!

Not really, I can see your point and dealing £26,062 wsas very understandable, but no one complains when you suggest someone is an idiot or whatever, and yet when I even hint towards someone being an idiot I get the brunt!

Not wishing to take this thread way off-topic and drag up an argument here, BUT if you read through KP's reasoned post you will see he doesn't call anyone an idiot! The reason your posts receive a lot of flack is because of your wording and direct personal remarks against people. If you took a more considered approach you would find that people would not be so negative against you.

It's not that people disagree with your opinion of how a person plays their game, it's how you abruptly and directly label people idiots or otherwise for not playing the perfect game. Instead of directly labelling people names, try to channel your disappointment into a more reasoned post and see how it is received.


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never_wrong

PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2007 6:15 pm    Author: never_wrong    Post subject:

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Indeed, Zeddie is quite a no dealer and often says he would have played on but he doesn't have the reputation of wakey because he simply isn't as vitriolic.

Anyway, I would have dealt at the fourth offer but I don't blame Kirsty for carrying on if the £26k wasn't what she came for.


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Zeddie

PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2007 6:55 pm    Author: Zeddie    Post subject:

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Some of you may remember on Saturday, I fake spoilered Kirsty's game and said "On Tuesday, Kirsty plays, and wins £9.99, beating Geordie's record."

How spooky... she played on Tuesday, and she got an final offer (which I would've dealt) of £19.99... might has well have been a prediction.

Anyway, about today's game... I really thought she had £250,000 today, from the start. I mean, from her first game, she reminded me of Laura, and today, bringing Box 16 to the table, I was convinced she had it... she would've been a brilliant £250,000 winner.

Or at least £15,000...

What a horrible ending, after such a fabulous game... :( Never mind, well done on staying cheery at the end Kirsty, you were brilliant! :D

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Tom

PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2007 7:49 pm    Author: Tom    Post subject:

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Poor Kirsty. I wanted her to really well!!


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Rockjack

PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2007 7:50 pm    Author: Rockjack    Post subject:

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isnt zeddie a girl

i thought kirsty had brought the 250k... just the aura

and unfortunate luck to take both out straight after! im sure she of dealt if kept the 250k in to box 5 stage.


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22identicalboxes

PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2007 8:02 pm    Author: 22identicalboxes    Post subject:

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Typical, a legend wins a blue. I wish she'd taken the £26k, I would have dealt there.

I really, really wanted her to take the £19.99 to beat Geordie's record. Never mind, £100 is better than nothing.


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Zeddie

PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2007 8:24 pm    Author: Zeddie    Post subject:

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Rockjack wrote:
isnt zeddie a girl

i thought kirsty had brought the 250k... just the aura

and unfortunate luck to take both out straight after! im sure she of dealt if kept the 250k in to box 5 stage.


I like the ambiguity my avatar gives me.

I can be the girl or the boy!

But no, just to clarify, I'm male.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2007 9:15 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject:
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I'd have dealt the £24K so quick that the banker wouldn't have had chance to ring back to offer the extra £2K.

As soon as she no dealt - I knew it was going to go pear-shaped. Watching on 4OD on my PC - you have a episode timer and there was only 8 minutes left when she turned down the £26K. There wasn't enough time to agonise about another good offer.


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JO!

PostPosted: Tue May 15, 2007 10:31 pm    Author: JO!    Post subject:
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Poor Kirsty, I really liked her, she should have deserved to win more, i'll miss her on the wings, but well done on a good game Kirsty!


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basicasic

PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2007 9:52 am    Author: basicasic    Post subject:
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Such shocking bad luck for such a brave and courageous lass.

I just hope PJ's game closely followed by Kirsty's 'crash and burn' doesn't result in a run of timid deals now.

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2007 10:32 am    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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Well Kirsty could have won £26,062, but she didn't as she gambled - foolishly or bravely (make up your own mind). She also blew the chance of being in the hall of fame for the lowest deal ever at £19.99, which was a shame as she was clearly aiming for the £100 despite the fact she'd previously turned down £26,062... I think I'd deal at £19.99 in that case - if only for the novelty!

I still don't really understand the attitude that Noel and the contestants now have when the £250k is there with very little backup - if she played on with some good backups, fair enough, but she had very few backups, and the only way that £26,062 offer was going to go up was if she kept either the £50k or the £250k in play, and as KP has pointed out, there was a near 65% chance that she would knock one out!

Even if she'd kept the £250k in play and knocked out the £50k, it's unlikely she'd have got a considerably higher offer than £26,062 until the 2-box stage (assuming she kept the £250k in play to that offer as well)... She fell into the "The £250k is still there, I'm playing on" trap, without assessing how much backup she had if it went wrong - how about saying "The 10p is still there, I'm dealing"...

And I wish we could have neutral Noel back. I didn't hear him saying "No, Kirsty! You've blown it big time! You could've had £26,062, why did you no deal?!".

Anyway, well done Kirsty for playing it your way... enjoy the £100.

By the way, is that the first time the banker has phoned 3 times to adjust the offer?!


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basicasic

PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2007 11:40 am    Author: basicasic    Post subject:
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h2005 wrote:
Well Kirsty could have won £26,062, but she didn't as she gambled - foolishly or bravely (make up your own mind).


As always it depends on the result. Its considered brave if it pays off or, as in Kirsty's case, foolish if it doesn't.

h2005 wrote:
I still don't really understand the attitude that Noel and the contestants now have when the £250k is there with very little backup - if she played on with some good backups, fair enough, but she had very few backups, and the only way that £26,062 offer was going to go up was if she kept either the £50k or the £250k in play, and as KP has pointed out, there was a near 65% chance that she would knock one out!


It would appear to me that most people's attitude to the game is to keep as many high values on the board (obviously) until an acceptable (to them) offer is made at which stage they'll deal whatever the further prospects are. £20,000 seems to me to be the main tipping point but each individual has their own figure in mind.

A small number of people, like me, look at the game as a once in a lifetime chance to win a mega-amount of money and if the gamble goes wrong and you're left with peanuts then you are still going away with more than you came with and thats just too bad. I won't shed too many tears about losing £20,000 I never had in the first place.

h2005 wrote:
Even if she'd kept the £250k in play and knocked out the £50k, it's unlikely she'd have got a considerably higher offer than £26,062 until the 2-box stage (assuming she kept the £250k in play to that offer as well)... She fell into the "The £250k is still there, I'm playing on" trap, without assessing how much backup she had if it went wrong - how about saying "The 10p is still there, I'm dealing"...


For the reasons I've stated earlier if you are chasing the big money then backups etc become less important. Kirsty had £250k, £50k and plenty of smaller amounts to go at. The offer at that stage was an obvious deal for the 'dealers' amongst us and an obvious no-deal for the 'no-dealers'. The 'dealers' fared better today.

h2005 wrote:
By the way, is that the first time the banker has phoned 3 times to adjust the offer?!


It's an annoying gimmick if you ask me. He should make his offer and stick to it.

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2007 11:53 am    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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basicasic wrote:
h2005 wrote:
Well Kirsty could have won £26,062, but she didn't as she gambled - foolishly or bravely (make up your own mind).


As always it depends on the result. Its considered brave if it pays off or, as in Kirsty's case, foolish if it doesn't.


That is unfortunately how a lot of people think. :? However, I said Graeme was foolish for turning down £41,000, and I still do, even though it worked out for him. I also think Kirsty was bordering on foolish as well, but it's just as valid to call her brave.

basicasic wrote:
A small number of people, like me, look at the game as a once in a lifetime chance to win a mega-amount of money and if the gamble goes wrong and you're left with peanuts then you are still going away with more than you came with and thats just too bad. I won't shed too many tears about losing £20,000 I never had in the first place.


There's nothing wrong if the player wants to play it that way, but if everyone did it, it'd actually get quite boring as if everyone went to the end, we'd have, in theory, one huge win for every tiny win... which would be a bit of a boring pattern.

Undoubtedly, that attitude can pay off and make for some very exciting games - but a game where a player deals early can be interesting to see what would've happened had they played on and also interesting to see the reaction of Noel and the banker's offers.

basicasic wrote:
h2005 wrote:
By the way, is that the first time the banker has phoned 3 times to adjust the offer?!


It's an annoying gimmick if you ask me. He should make his offer and stick to it.


I agree that it's annoying - but it is a very clever tactic of the banker as whilst raising the offer by a relatively small amount may not change the player's decision to deal or not, it certainly unsettles the player - it's just one of the many new psychological tactics of the banker... but should be kept to a minimum.


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rico7

PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2007 12:26 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject:
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It was very brave to no deal the 8 box offer, but if you don't have the insurance of having at least 3 Power 5 amounts at that stage, which Kirsty didn't (nor the 20K) then it is a risk, but it was very unlucky that she took out both the 50K and the 250K in the next round representing a 9.3% chance. Well played Kirsty, sorry it wasn't more for you but I hope you enjoyed the DOND experience.


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KP

PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2007 1:29 pm    Author: KP    Post subject:
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rico7 wrote:
It was very brave to no deal the 8 box offer, but if you don't have the insurance of having at least 3 Power 5 amounts at that stage, which Kirsty didn't (nor the 20K) then it is a risk, but it was very unlucky that she took out both the 50K and the 250K in the next round representing a 9.3% chance. Well played Kirsty, sorry it wasn't more for you but I hope you enjoyed the DOND experience.


Isn't it 10.7%?

And £20,000 you never had in the first place? As far as I'm concerned, the offers are money that is yours! Sure, it's not money you had in the first place, but I consider it money you had as of that moment. Kirsty won £26,062 then lost £25,962 all in the space of however long it took to tape the episode. I would personally have just won the £26,062, but on the other hand if Kirsty pulled off the perfect round she might have turned it into... maybe £52,025. And that wouldn't have happened to me.

Also, I wouldn't play with a specific target in mind - which is why on some really strong boards I'd turn down offers that are big in cash terms but not relative to the board, and conversely would take generous offers on bad boards. I'd like to think that I play the odds and play the board, and I actually agree with basicasic that a lot of people don't. But it works in a number of ways. Some will play with an absolute exit fee, £20,000 being a common one; others will chase the quarter-million until it's gone, like Di; others just don't seem to know how to play it, and it's these that are most likely to be influenced by Noel and the audience.

There's a lot of variation, and that's how it should be. If every player was a Wakey there would be no game; if every player was a Greeny, it would be a different sort of stupifying dullness. The most common deal point, IMHO, should be five-box, especially given how the odds turn against you at that point (60% chance of hitting any given value) - but there should be plenty of people who go to the final two and also plenty who are gone at or maybe before eight-box. That's in the Banker's power though - he should make offers that create that kind of pattern naturally, based upon the contestants that are chosen.

Anyway. Kirsty was a gambler and probably now wishes she wasn't. But she was probably guilty of nothing more than having big dreams and not being able to read the board, and that's something a lot of people are guilty of.

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Qwerty

PostPosted: Wed May 16, 2007 3:53 pm    Author: Qwerty    Post subject:

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Not such a pleasant game to watch - horrible crash from £26,062 to peanuts. Was surprised at her apparent lack of realisation of how much money it was for the board, and she didn't really seem to consider it like I would have expected it to have been considered - it seemed clear she was going to no deal to me. But perhaps that was just down to editing.

Still, as Noel said, for there to be big winners, there have to be losers, just a shame it had to be Doughnut Dolly Kirsty.

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"The Banker"

PostPosted: Thu May 17, 2007 2:33 pm    Author: "The Banker"    Post subject:

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Kirsty is a winner regardless of what she won! :D

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James1978

PostPosted: Fri May 18, 2007 3:34 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject:

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Poor Kirsty. I wish she could have swapped games with the other Kirsty.

I thought it was risky for her to turn down the £26,062, but certainly not stupid - Barry did the same on a slightly worse board and look what happened to him :)

I was really wanting her to deal the £19.99 as well, but I loved her reaction to it, it was if to say "No way am I being in the HOF for THAT!!" She obviously recognised that it was going to be almost impossible for the record to be broken, and didn't want to go hrough the pain that geordie has been for the past 15 months. :D

She could have been in 2 record books at the same time too - I wonder if Noel makes a thing about the highest amount turned down to win a blue? And pigs might fly.

And another awesome thing - she had the same last pair as £1 Mike, and the same last 5 (except for 10p instead of 1p) - what a legend! :)

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