Paul M 10/05

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

jmas07 wrote:

...any red final would produce a higher offer, if not a little higher.

£5 + £750 = Lower offer
£5 + £500 = Lower offer
£500 £750 = Lower offer
£5 + £50,000 = Higher offer
£500 + £50,000 = Higher offer
£750 + £50,000 = Higher offer
£5 + £100,000 = Higher offer
£500 + £100,000 = Higher offer
£750 + £100,000 = Higher offer
£50,000 + £100,000 = Higher offer

Actually, no. £500 + £100,000 produced an offer of £33,000, less than two-thirds of the mean. Equivalent offer on blue + £50,000 is £16,000 - which isn't a higher offer. And when you consider that proveout offers do tend to be inflated anyway (though in fairness this one wasn't)...

Blue + £35,000 produced a hypothetical £14,000 yesterday: the same generosity would have produced a stick here.

Furthermore... it's not just a 30% chance of a drop in the offer, it's a 30% chance of a collapse in the offer. That would do it for me...

**Posted:** Thu May 10, 2007 5:15 pm **Author:** basicasic **Post subject:**

jmas07 wrote:

Indeed there wasn't, but any red final would produce a higher offer, if not a little higher.

£5 + £750 = Lower offer
£5 + £500 = Lower offer
£500 £750 = Lower offer
£5 + £50,000 = Higher offer
£500 + £50,000 = Higher offer
£750 + £50,000 = Higher offer
£5 + £100,000 = Higher offer
£500 + £100,000 = Higher offer
£750 + £100,000 = Higher offer
£50,000 + £100,000 = Higher offer

The bolded finals are not necessarily much higher offers, but pretty much that, if not a stick which is a great consolation prize after giving a higher offer finish a stab.

I make that a 70% chance increase. I think Sandra had a similar board and was offered something like £12,000. I remember everyone at bothers bar calling her foolish. I reckon the same would apply for Paul.

Nice work. I knew the statistics would back me up. To me it was an obvious no-deal. I don't think even KP can argue against those stats.

**Posted:** Thu May 10, 2007 5:19 pm **Author:** Qwerty **Post subject:**

Wow, what a game!

I know this sounds horrible - but really glad to see an all-red opener :oops:

! We've come close recently, and it always frustrates me when they do 4 of one colour and one of another!

Paul certainly did the all-red opener in style, does anyone have an image of the first 7 reds gone and the left hand side intact?

Amazing he had the £100,000 in his box after such an appalling start!

**Joined:** Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:02 pm **Warnings:** 0

basicasic wrote:

I think its sheer greed.

A little confused, how is it greedy to take a respectful offer and not play on. Wouldn't you have classed it greedy if he played on and ended up going home with a blue amount

**Posted:** Thu May 10, 2007 5:23 pm **Author:** jmas07 **Post subject:**

kestral wrote:

basicasic wrote:

I think its sheer greed.

A little confused, how is it greedy to take a respectful offer and not play on. Wouldn't you have classed it greedy if he played on and ended up going home with a blue amount

I would class it greedy to deal due to him taking whatever money he can and not playing the game fully. This applied to that terrible week we had not long ago...

If someone carried on and won a blue I would call them brave. They gave me great TV, why would I call them greedy and foolish?

**Posted:** Thu May 10, 2007 5:26 pm **Author:** Lewis246 **Post subject:**

I would class Paul's deal at £20,000 as "understanding of money."

**Joined:** Sun Mar 26, 2006 9:06 pm **Warnings:** 0

jmas07 wrote:

kestral wrote:

basicasic wrote:

I think its sheer greed.

A little confused, how is it greedy to take a respectful offer and not play on. Wouldn't you have classed it greedy if he played on and ended up going home with a blue amount

I would class it greedy to deal due to him taking whatever money he can and not playing the game fully. This applied to that terrible week we had not long ago...

If someone carried on and won a blue I would call them brave. They gave me great TV, why would I call them greedy and foolish?

It really bugs me that people think playing the game properly means going to the end each time. As I've said before its called 'Deal or no deal'. not 'no deal, I'm going to have whatever's in my box'.

**Posted:** Thu May 10, 2007 5:28 pm **Author:** Lewis246 **Post subject:**

Yes, it would be crap if everyone just went to the end regardless. They may as well just cut out the first 40 minutes of it and open the player's box. You could have 7 people 'playing' in one day!

Today's episode showed how crazy Rita's £35,444 proveout offer was.

Maybe Paul should have gone on more round but the £33,000 point was too risky to no deal and it would have needed extreme courage to go all the way anyway so i can see why he dealt. People should remember Paul from January he no dealt £20,000 on a similar board then ended up dealing for only £5,000 at the 2 box stage and found out that he had the £100,000 anyway.

**Joined:** Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm **Warnings:** 0

alexandercbrown wrote:

Today's episode showed how crazy Rita's £35,444 proveout offer was.

Hah, yes! Even basicasic and jmas07 would have taken that one...

**Joined:** Thu Feb 23, 2006 10:36 pm **Warnings:** 0

KP wrote:

alexandercbrown wrote:

Today's episode showed how crazy Rita's £35,444 proveout offer was.

Hah, yes! Even basicasic and jmas07 would have taken that one...

Possibly, but I doubt you could say the same for £35,333...

**Joined:** Sat Mar 25, 2006 1:42 pm **Warnings:** 0

What a game - enjoy the money

**Posted:** Thu May 10, 2007 5:50 pm **Author:** jmas07 **Post subject:**

alexandercbrown wrote:

Today's episode showed how crazy Rita's £35,444 proveout offer was.

Maybe Paul should have gone on more round but the £33,000 point was too risky to no deal and it would have needed extreme courage to go all the way anyway so i can see why he dealt. People should remember Paul from January he no dealt £20,000 on a similar board then ended up dealing for only £5,000 at the 2 box stage and found out that he had the £100,000 anyway.

He dealt £20,000 anyway didn't he? This was pre Laura though...

**Posted:** Thu May 10, 2007 5:55 pm **Author:** basicasic **Post subject:**

kestral wrote:

basicasic wrote:

I think its sheer greed.

A little confused, how is it greedy to take a respectful offer and not play on. Wouldn't you have classed it greedy if he played on and ended up going home with a blue amount

I think as soon as a decent offer is pitched the pound signs go up in their eyes and they get overtaken by greed. All thoughts of assessing the board and weighing the odds seems to go out the window. They focus on the money and forget everything else. Steven and Kelsie were glaring examples of this. I think they were overcome by greed and wasted golden boards.

They still left with big amounts but it could have been so much more.

**Joined:** Sat Mar 11, 2006 1:24 am **Warnings:** 0

Wow, to have such relentless bad luck taking out 7 reds in a row like that and then going on to win £20,000 is not bad at all really! Shame there was more in the game for him but he went at the right time for him. Welldone Paul!

**Joined:** Fri May 12, 2006 9:38 pm **Warnings:** 0

Well done Paul!

**Joined:** Tue Jan 03, 2006 6:02 pm **Warnings:** 0

basicasic wrote:

kestral wrote:

basicasic wrote:

I think its sheer greed.

A little confused, how is it greedy to take a respectful offer and not play on. Wouldn't you have classed it greedy if he played on and ended up going home with a blue amount

I think as soon as a decent offer is pitched the pound signs go up in their eyes and they get overtaken by greed. All thoughts of assessing the board and weighing the odds seems to go out the window. They focus on the money and forget everything else. Steven and Kelsie were glaring examples of this. I think they were overcome by greed and wasted golden boards.

They still left with big amounts but it could have been so much more.

I don't see how you can label it greed when Paul and his wife both told Noel that the £20,000 was so close to their target, and so took the offer. I would class that as being level-headed and not getting caught up in the game and chasing amounts that may or may not be won.

**Posted:** Thu May 10, 2007 6:53 pm **Author:** Zeddie **Post subject:**

Ah, poopy. Box 16 brings another P5 to the table. Shame he didn't go all the way. That was a crazy start. Glad to see he managed to turn it around

You know what's funny? I decided to try a new "system" today, which was predicting an offer, and if the real offer was lower, it was an automatic No Deal.

...

For the £500 vs. £100,000, my deal-minimum was £36,000...

Going by the system, I would've No Dealt.

This is definitely going to push me up the dealometer

**Joined:** Fri Feb 24, 2006 10:04 pm **Warnings:** 0

You can't blame him for taking that, I mean 30% chance of going away with next to nothing, with a young family they couldn't really risk that.

Just unlucky he had the £100,000 in his box. And as she said they would never have turned down the last offer so realistically there was only another £13,000 in it for them anyway.

**Posted:** Thu May 10, 2007 7:38 pm **Author:** jmas07 **Post subject:**

Could I ask someone to stick the opening round on youtube please?

Thanks.

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Paul M 10/05

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