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h2005

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 4:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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basicasic wrote:
For goodness sake I knew he'd bail out at a whiff of a half decent offer.

Hes managed to get a good board after a disasterous start and just squandered it.


I think a deal at this point is a very wise decision - he won't see an offer as high as that again unless he keeps the £100,000 in play to the final two.


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kestral

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 4:54 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject:
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Banker would have offered

£33,000


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jmas07

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 4:55 pm    Author: jmas07    Post subject:
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basicasic wrote:
For goodness sake I knew he'd bail out at a whiff of a half decent offer.

Hes managed to get a good board after a disasterous start and just squandered it.


Ditto, TWO power 5 left and he dealt, I thought £20,000 was a rubbish offer!

I think this will be higher. £33,000, totally believable.


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Lewis246

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 4:55 pm    Author: Lewis246    Post subject:

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£33,000 is very believable.


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kestral

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 4:56 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject:
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That's OK says Kerry as she expected it would have been higher. Paul says he would have dealt there.


Noel opens box 16 and reveals £100,000... You blew it BIG TIME says Noel!! Paul says he would have NEVER got that far anyway.

Box 22 contains the £500


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h2005

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 4:56 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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jmas07 wrote:
basicasic wrote:
For goodness sake I knew he'd bail out at a whiff of a half decent offer.

Hes managed to get a good board after a disasterous start and just squandered it.


Ditto, TWO power 5 left and he dealt, I thought £20,000 was a rubbish offer!

I think this will be higher. £33,000, totally believable.


That was a good offer!!! Lance had an offer of £17,500 on virtually the same board and he had the £75,000 in play whereas Paul has the £50,000!


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h2005

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 4:57 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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kestral wrote:
Noel opens box 16 and reveals £100,000... You blew it BIG TIME says Noel!! Paul says he would have NEVER got that far anyway.


Exactly! Shut up, Noel! :? Well said, Paul!


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Rockjack

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 4:58 pm    Author: Rockjack    Post subject:

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lol H you do make me smile


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kestral

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 4:58 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject:
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jmas07 wrote:
That's low. Carry on again! Three boxes away from £70,000 plus... and a guaranteed £50,000.

That's with a perfect round, and there is NO guarantee of that!!


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jmas07

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 4:59 pm    Author: jmas07    Post subject:
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And the £100,000 to rub it in. He had such an appauling start and when he dealt he had nearly the perfect opportunity to collect the £100,000 and give us the biggest turnaround we have ever seen. £20,000 in my opinion was rubbish, he had an all blue round and the offer only went up £10,000. £30,000 would be tempting, but still a no deal due to two power 5 beling left. He didn't even have to keep the two power 5 at the end to get a higher offer, as we have witnessed. Any blue with £50,000 would probably give an offer just higher than £20,000.

In my opinion, that was bordering on foolish when he dealt. It may have been a 'good' offer, but it felt rubbish for that board. I'm sure basicasic would agree.


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h2005

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 4:59 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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Rockjack wrote:
lol H you do make me smile

I'm glad I make someone smile... :P


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h2005

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 5:01 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject:
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kestral wrote:
jmas07 wrote:
That's low. Carry on again! Three boxes away from £70,000 plus... and a guaranteed £50,000.

That's with a perfect round, and there is NO guarantee of that!!


Exactly!!! The thing with DOND is to look at the worst case scenario and see what would happen if you took out the high numbers! In this case, he could've been left with a final two of two blues, maybe one involving the £50,000 and maybe one involving the £100,000.

But like I said earlier, the only way he was going to increase substantially on the £20,000 offer was if he kept the £100,000 in play to the final two - and at the time of dealing, there was a low chance that he would do that.


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rico7

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 5:02 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject:
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h2005 wrote:
kestral wrote:
Noel opens box 16 and reveals £100,000... You blew it BIG TIME says Noel!! Paul says he would have NEVER got that far anyway.


Exactly! Shut up, Noel! :? Well said, Paul!


Agreed, it was brave to go on at 8 box and reject £10,000 as the odds were in favour of crash and burn, but £20,000 is a great result given how the game started, and at 8 box Paul had a 75% chance of having a blue in his box. You have to play the game based upon the board at the time.
Just imagine if Paul had rejected £20,000 and then gone on to take the 50K and 100K out, then people would say that he acted foolishly or too greedily.


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basicasic

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 5:05 pm    Author: basicasic    Post subject:
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jmas07 wrote:
And the £100,000 to rub it in. He had such an appauling start and when he dealt he had nearly the perfect opportunity to collect the £100,000 and give us the biggest turnaround we have ever seen. £20,000 in my opinion was rubbish, he had an all blue round and the offer only went up £10,000. £30,000 would be tempting, but still a no deal due to two power 5 beling left. He didn't even have to keep the two power 5 at the end to get a higher offer, as we have witnessed. Any blue with £50,000 would probably give an offer just higher than £20,000.

In my opinion, that was bordering on foolish when he dealt. It may have been a 'good' offer, but it felt rubbish for that board. I'm sure basicasic would agree.


You read my mind lol.

£100K in his box. Serves him right!

A little more courage and a mega-payday was his for the taking. And his interfering wife helped put pay to that. I just knew he'd bail at the first tempting offer and completely ignore the £50K and £100k still on the board. It was so predictable.

I think its sheer greed.

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jmas07

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 5:05 pm    Author: jmas07    Post subject:
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kestral wrote:
jmas07 wrote:
That's low. Carry on again! Three boxes away from £70,000 plus... and a guaranteed £50,000.

That's with a perfect round, and there is NO guarantee of that!!


Indeed there wasn't, but any red final would produce a higher offer, if not a little higher.

£5 + £750 = Lower offer
£5 + £500 = Lower offer
£500 £750 = Lower offer
£5 + £50,000 = Higher offer
£500 + £50,000 = Higher offer
£750 + £50,000 = Higher offer

£5 + £100,000 = Higher offer
£500 + £100,000 = Higher offer
£750 + £100,000 = Higher offer
£50,000 + £100,000 = Higher offer

The bolded finals are not necessarily much higher offers, but pretty much that, if not a stick which is a great consolation prize after giving a higher offer finish a stab.

I make that a 70% chance increase. I think Sandra had a similar board and was offered something like £12,000. I remember everyone at bothers bar calling her foolish. I reckon the same would apply for Paul.


Last edited by jmas07 on Thu May 10, 2007 5:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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maggieq

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 5:05 pm    Author: maggieq    Post subject:

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:smt038 well done Paul.the deal was the right one for you.hope you are having a ball spending the dosh.


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Lewis246

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 5:08 pm    Author: Lewis246    Post subject:

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£5 and £50,000 would probably get a lower offer, actually. It was £18,000 with Leila in proveout.

£500 and £50,000 and £750 and £50,000 would probably get a stick.


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 5:09 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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Haha, I have to confess that I was absolutely pissing myself during the first bit of the game...not 'cos I disliked Paul, it was just funny seeing all those reds go, especially as it'd been almost a year since we'd even had an all-blue opening five! Great turnaround though and I'd definitely have done the same as him - liked the way neither of them seemed too bothered about what was in the box, despite Noel's best efforts. Scary though that there were only ten reds on the wings and he still managed to hit seven of them before a single blue. :shock:

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jmas07

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 5:11 pm    Author: jmas07    Post subject:
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Lewis246 wrote:
£5 and £50,000 would probably get a lower offer, actually. It was £18,000 with Leila in proveout.

£500 and £50,000 and £750 and £50,000 would probably get a stick.


Possibly, but after taking out £100,000 it's a bloody good consolation prize getting the same offer, give or take a few grand.

Call it 70% of not getting an offer less than the last one.

Bordering on foolish for dealing IMO.


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daniel4389

PostPosted: Thu May 10, 2007 5:13 pm    Author: daniel4389    Post subject:

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basicasic wrote:
I think its sheer greed.


As opposed to turning down an amount you'd be happy with because there's a chance you might get a bit more? :?

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