The "high figures" come before we know anything about the contents of her boxes. Before Steph's game, the chance of Michaela having £250k in each of the next five shows was 1/22 ^ 5 - we had no idea whether she would have it or not. However, once she opened her box in Steph's game and revealed the £250k, the chance of her having it in that game became 1, as she definitely had it. The chance of her having it in that game and the next four games was therefore 1 * (1/22 ^ 4). Now we've seen her have it three more times, the probability is (1 ^ 4) * (1/22 ^ 1), i.e. 1 in 22.

At the start of the first ever game, there was a 1 in 22 chance of Lynn having £10 in her box. Once we'd got to the end and seen she had £10 in it, was it still a 1 in 22 chance? No - it had definitely happened, so the probability was 1. The odds change every time we get some new information.

(I'm sure I've made a mistake and am going to look like an idiot...)

Nicely put, Daniel.

To clarify though, the '1 in 10,648' probability I quoted is the probability that the £250k turns up in the same position for four specific games. That way, we can easily calculate how often we'd expect it to happen. (Assuming about 300 games a year, we'd expect it to happen, as I said before, once every 35 years.)


Ah, now that is an excellent question, because, if I may be so bold as to say so, it highlights the reason for your current misunderstanding of the situation.

Allow me to illustrate it like this...

Q. What is the probability that a specific player, let's say Cocky Bill, has the £250k for each of the next five games?
A. Well, we don't have any information about any future games, so it's 1 in 5,153,632.

Q. What is the probability Michaela continues her run and has the £250k again tomorrow, making it five in a row?
A. We know that Michaela has already had it four times in succession. Therefore she only needs to hit the 1 in 22 chance tomorrow to make five. The chance is 1 in 22, then.

Michaela and this thread should be in the Hall of Fame!

But it is in the same position so wouldn't it be around 5 million?

Heheh...for someone who's said about four words since she joined, she's certainly made a name for herself!

And isn't the collective chance of her having it so many times big enough?

If Michaela has it again tomorrow, I'm writing to Endemol!

They might put her on tomorrow! If so, i am sure the bankers first offer will be a swap!

Oi, I recognise those words!

Anyway, I reckon they might play her quite early, so Noel can make the most of her "run" while it's still recent. Assuming it does eventually finish, of course...

Haha, a Lucy with 49 £250,000's and 1 penny!

And i never copied those words, Daniel!

EDIT: My 3000th post! Getting ready to post ASAP as soon as i hit the 3,333 mark

Why haven't they mentioned on DOND the fact that she's had it four times in a row? I mean, they usually make a big deal of it - especially when Stevie was a black widow.

The odds of 50 shows with the same amount for one player are

1/600,774,319,642,841,528,092,711,102,659,120,000,000,000,000,000,000,000


Its more likely that the sun will explode tommorow

No.

The theory behind this is called 'conditional probability'. The first of my scenarios has no condition attached. The second has the rather important condition that we're already four parts of the way towards achieving five-in-a-row.

Every step we successfully go closer to getting five-in-a-row reduces the probability of finally getting it accordingly.

So, at the risk of introducing more confusion to the discussion, I'll just add this. The fact that somebody has had the biggie four times in a row is quite an unlikely occurrence. The question people are really asking is 'given all of the possibilities, how likely was it that that'd happen?'. They're not asking 'how likely is it?' because we know how likely it is; we've definitely seen it. The likelihood that it is is 100%.

But they are both the same but in different tenses

i understand now

that way is statistical, am i right?

Wakey, imagine that you have one of the boxes. What's the probability that there's £5 in there? 1 in 22 - there are 22 possible values, and only one of them is the £5.

Then you open the box, and find that it has the £5. What's the probability that there's £5 in there? 1. It's certain that there's £5 in there, because you've seen it - there aren't any other possible outcomes. That's how the probabilites can change once you've got more information.

That just doesn't make sense, how things can change once you've seen them

read my post in the Deal or no deal Odds thread in DOND general discussion and see if you understand it better

Well, the events don't change, but the probabilities do. That's what you've got to get your head around before you'll properly understand this. (Sorry if that sounded patronising.)

In fact, constantly changing probabilities is exactly what this game is all about! Every time a box is opened in the game, we get more information about what amount is in the box on the table.

Hence why when we get to the two box stage, it is 50:50 whether or not a certain value is in the box (well, one of two values).