£15k was about the right offer. Playing on required either the £100,000 and the £250,000 to survive the fourth round (a 49% chance) or to lose the £100,000 only, turn down the probable joke offer and then keep the quarter-million into the final five: probability of that:
Code:
Keeping £250,000 through round four: 8/11
Hitting £100,000 in round four given that £250,000 does not go: 3/10
Keeping £250,000 through round five: 5/8
That comes to 13.6%. So there was about a 5/8 chance of the gamble clearly paying off, potentially spectacularly with £35,000 on the board as well.
In fact...
Commentating on Bother's Bar at the time, I wrote:
Worse than the last offer. Why the cheering? It's a wasted offer.
I'd definitely have done the same. The Banker took you for a wuss and nearly paid big time for it.