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Deal or No Deal forum index » UK DoND Forums » Deal or No Deal Show Commentaries & DiscussionAll times are UTC [ DST ]



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sorlag

PostPosted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 5:46 pm    Author: sorlag    Post subject: Re: 23/06 Stacey

Joined: Thu Mar 12, 2009 6:06 pm
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erm hope that misinformation from the banker didn't sway her into dealing... 'likelihood of an all red round'. Odds are only 36%.


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unclekevo

PostPosted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 7:30 pm    Author: unclekevo    Post subject: Re: 23/06 Stacey
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Pleased that Stacey got a nice amount of money out of it, I know it's easy to say well you had £100,000 in her box but Stacey wasn't a gambler and I don't think she would ever have gambled to get what was in her box. Lovely, positive, smiley lady, pleased for her.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 8:53 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 23/06 Stacey
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
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sorlag wrote:
erm hope that misinformation from the banker didn't sway her into dealing... 'likelihood of an all red round'. Odds are only 36%.


Quite right

Odds of:
2 blues/1 red 10.7%
1 blue/2 reds 53.6%
3 reds 35.7%

Shame there wasn't a Statsman in the audience to corrent the banker. :D

I though £22k was a decent offer - however has she taken out the £250k but left one of the blues (especially the 1p), the offer would have been in the low teens at best so there was justification for going on today at 8-box.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:13 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 23/06 Stacey

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
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Can't blame Stacey for taking that deal, Think it was arguable either way. Of course with hindsight it was the wrong move but hindsight makes Banker Spankers of us all. A nice enough game with a very bubbly contestant

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Thu Jun 23, 2011 11:38 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 23/06 Stacey

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
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Noticed there was an editing slip-up with the on screen graphics when the the £15,000 was found. It was removed from the on screen graphics as normal, but then briefly reappeared just before Fred opened his box.


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StatsMan

PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2011 11:25 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 23/06 Stacey

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Simon F wrote:
...Shame there wasn't a Statsman in the audience to corrent the banker. :D


Haha! If you're perchance referring to me, I was probably too busy working out averages, or following the unwritten 'rule' of pilgrim etiquette of not speaking unless spoken to. Or I was just a bit of a wimp. I forget, it was over 5 months ago now! :P I remember being sat next to Stacey's mum at the start of this show 'east-side' - I seem to have a habit of sitting next to contestant's relatives on visits, and it's fun to see their reactions! :D

Anyway, interesting call - at the time, I thought it was a decent offer without being spectacular, the main question was how £100k going would affect the offer - of course, it should increase, but I couldn't see the banker offering much more than 30k. I think I'd have been tempted by the 6/2 split to go on, but the more I think about it, the more I think it looked deceptively stronger than it actually was. Not often you would leave an all-red 5 box and be slightly disappointed!

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Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


Last edited by StatsMan on Fri Jun 24, 2011 11:40 am, edited 1 time in total.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2011 11:37 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 23/06 Stacey

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Talking coincidences, I remember seeing that 5k/100k finish at the Dream Factory before in Noel's game (Irish chap who was a bit bonkers!), also in the proveout, and also having 100k on the table (although his hypo offer at 2-box was just 25k). Not particularly remarkable in itself granted, but I have also seen a couple of other repeated 2-box combinations on previous visits (this in no way intimates whether they appear again in future unbroadcast games, by the way!)

£250/£15k: Kerry, Jaron
50p/£50: Danielle, Helen

So, my question to fellow statisticians is: What are the odds of THREE duplicate 2-box finishes in the 27 games of mine that have been broadcast so far...?

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Biggest Pilgrim Game Wins:

Marlene - 21 July 2013: £118,000
Gill - 23 March 2014: £75,000
Tony - 24 April 2012: £72,000
Lee - 4 April 2013: £48,000
Tommy & Jen - 26 & 27 Mar 2013 :O - £45,000! :O :O


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KP

PostPosted: Fri Jun 24, 2011 12:10 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 23/06 Stacey
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Joined: Sat Jan 28, 2006 8:00 pm
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Good question. Taking out three games with separate finishes, that involves finding each of the three duplicates in the remaining 24... I don't even know how to approach the question beyond that :(

What I do know is how to approach that eight-box - I saw it as basically Donna's board with added oranges, £21k was marginal in her situation, I'd have declined £22k with slightly more haste than it warranted, with more than one eye on getting - and then taking - a good five-box offer...

...which would have happened, but for £4k less! :(

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