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cfd

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:38 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs

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RMF1254 wrote:
It's the welcome return of the Old Governor! :lol: ;)

And I'd be seriously tempted to take it...


Only "seriously tempted"???? I can't believe she's even thinking about this.


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kestral

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:39 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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Debs says that when she first met Noel the first thing she noticed was his piercing blue eyes. Debs says that the Banker wants her gone now, and Noel says that he only gets it out when he wants someone gone. Debs says that they both have 2 of their power 5s. Noel says that Debs has managed to convince everyone that she is playing all the way and is determined to win the jackpot. Debs talks about only being here once and she is so fortunate to be here.

Debs says

NO DEAL

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wkd

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:39 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs

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cfd wrote:
RMF1254 wrote:
It's the welcome return of the Old Governor! :lol: ;)

And I'd be seriously tempted to take it...


Only "seriously tempted"???? I can't believe she's even thinking about this.


I'm swithering between an evaluation of 'bold risk taker' and 'crazy gambler'


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kestral

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:39 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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Noel calls a break....

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cfd

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:41 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs

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Well... I don't know what to say.

What I do know is that trailer has put me off watching next week.


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RMF1254

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:41 pm    Author: RMF1254    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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Oh my word... :shock:

Caution definitely hasn't taken over today...

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cfd

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:42 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs

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wkd wrote:
cfd wrote:
RMF1254 wrote:
It's the welcome return of the Old Governor! :lol: ;)

And I'd be seriously tempted to take it...


Only "seriously tempted"???? I can't believe she's even thinking about this.


I'm swithering between an evaluation of 'bold risk taker' and 'crazy gambler'


I'm coming to the conclusion of "doesn't have a clue of what is going on and is just saying no deal because that's what you're supposed to do".


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KP

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:43 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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It's all very well holding up an ideal of chasing the £250k, etc etc. - and yes these gambles are EV+ when millions of us take EV- gambles every week at our local newsagents or supermarkets.

But to turn down that offer and speak in the way she is, quoting the show's slanted wording to the letter, suggests she feels a sense of duty to blindly play on.

And I'm sorry, but I cannot support that sort of play in the slightest.

If she actually feels like she's comfortable enough with what she has that she can go "well, it's a positive expectation gamble, I can afford to lose it, it makes sense to go on" - what I would call The Basicasic Defence - I'm absolutely fine with that play.

But I think 90% of the contestants who play this way would be violating their true utility functions in doing so.

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:44 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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cfd wrote:
What I do know is that trailer has put me off watching next week.

You might not want to click this then.

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cfd

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:46 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs

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I mean even if the £250k/£50k stay til 5-box, £26k would be an acceptable offer there.


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Mark

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:47 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs

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Now this offer is going to get her thinking more.

I expect at least £40k.


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kestral

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:48 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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We're back

Round 5

The Banker calls and says he doesn't recall ever offering that amount of money on such a precarious board, and if she still has the £250,000 in play at the end of this round then he will throw everything at her.

3 - £5,000 Kerry

11 - 10p Sue

20 - £5 Kerry-Anne

Banker time

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KP

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:48 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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And just to make it clear, I don't want her to lose.

I want her to have a £250k/blue/blue round so that she can come to her senses and still leave with a significant amount of money. :)

We get the two blues in, but the red is the orange, and... erm, £52k here?!?

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


Last edited by KP on Wed May 04, 2011 4:48 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:48 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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Everyone, including Edmonds and the banker, will forget that Doreen got offered £50,000 on a 4 blues/£250k board.

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RMF1254

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:48 pm    Author: RMF1254    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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Oh my goodness...

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wkd

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:49 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs

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KP wrote:
And just to make it clear, I don't want her to lose.

I want her to have a £250k/blue/blue round so that she can come to her senses and still leave with a significant amount of money. :)


Well this next offer should be a test anyway!


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kestral

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:49 pm    Author: kestral    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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Wow, oh my word says Noel. The Banker says that round was a nightmare for him.

Banker's offer:

£63,000

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h2005

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:49 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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h2005 wrote:
Everyone, including Edmonds and the banker, will forget that Doreen got offered £50,000 on a 4 blues/£250k board.

And in terms of generosity, Debs' offer is the same as Doreen's!

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cfd

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:49 pm    Author: cfd    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs

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What the hell!

I mean.... seriously?

Up to her at this point. If she's completely crazy then no deal it. Otherwise play on.


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greeny

PostPosted: Wed May 04, 2011 4:49 pm    Author: greeny    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs

Joined: Sun Jan 15, 2006 11:14 pm
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Cast iron deal


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