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MisterAl

PostPosted: Fri May 06, 2011 10:40 pm    Author: MisterAl    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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Joined: Thu Feb 09, 2006 11:50 pm
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KP wrote:
You are correct that many - most? - players don't see the mean as significant. "More fool them", I would say, but that's not the point. I bought this up in this context because her Deal came at the point where a player on the wings explicitly mentioned the offer in that context. Maybe he did at eight-box and it was edited out. Maybe not.

While she was considering it, Dom stated very clearly that the 8-box offer was 65% of the average. It wasn't edited out.

Anyway, you seem to be arguing that the only 'common sense' approach to playing the game is entirely mathematically. You imply that turning down an offer on (or even above) the mean goes against common sense. Yet just this evening on Twitter the Banker posed a hypothetical situation where he might offer £88k on a £100k/£75k final two, and found that plenty of people would no deal it. Their reasons -- usually that a guaranteed £75k is a great position to be in so why not have a punt at the six-figure sum even if the current offer is above the average -- were perfectly valid in my eyes. They clearly weren't basing their decision on the maths, but on other, different factors that were more important to them. And even though I'm a maths nerd myself, I fully accept their point of view. After all, they'd have to live with their decision, not me.

A 'common sense' approach to the game would be for the player to have as few regrets as possible at the end of their game. For some players this may involve turning down an exceedingly generous offer or two. (Imagine if Corinne had been offered £150k on her £250k/1p final two. £150k still wouldn't have bought her that classic car, so, for her, where would be the sense in accepting it?)

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"70% is a long way from certain." -- an idiot


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unclekevo

PostPosted: Sat May 07, 2011 8:56 pm    Author: unclekevo    Post subject: Re: 04/05 Debs
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Joined: Thu Feb 18, 2010 12:35 pm
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I can say now, I was thinking when Debs was giving advice during other games, she's going to have a really good game, gutted that a) I missed it and b) she didn't go on as she was possibly my favourite person on the wings

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