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paulyc

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2011 4:53 pm    Author: paulyc    Post subject: Re: 28/03 Andy

Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 10:28 pm
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:biggrin So he's done well anyway.


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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2011 4:56 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 28/03 Andy
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Whew! Close shave there but thankfully the proveout wasn't TOO painful :)

Positive start to the week, that's the important part!

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Simon F

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2011 5:01 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 28/03 Andy
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
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Would be fascinating to see what deal-eye says at 8-box today. Was probably worth the gamble if you look at the EV of the 5-box offer as only the 1 in 56 chance of the all red round or the 5 in 56 chances of the £250k/£50k/blue or £250k/£35k blue rounds would signficantly reduce the offer but today was a classic case of the player not being able to risk the money offered. It wasn't a great offer but it also wasn't a clearly bad offer (like the £3k at 5-box yesterday)

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paulyc

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2011 5:05 pm    Author: paulyc    Post subject: Re: 28/03 Andy

Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 10:28 pm
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So glad we avoided the 3.10 offer in live play. That would have been sickening for them. Naughty banker. :twisted:


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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2011 5:14 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 28/03 Andy
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It wasn't a smart deal, I was gonna say that one more round and he defiantly would've stopped

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BankerSpanker

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2011 5:21 pm    Author: BankerSpanker    Post subject: Re: 28/03 Andy
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I'd have gone one more round. And I could see that £3.10 offer coming! :lol:

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2011 5:28 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 28/03 Andy
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A player with a clear story to tell gets a solid five-figure win from selling a blue - the sort of game that forms the bedrock of how post-bubble DoND arguably should be. That it would have been a none-too-difficult £26k OPW for me is irrelevant.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2011 7:48 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 28/03 Andy
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
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killersbee wrote:
It wasn't a smart deal, I was gonna say that one more round and he defiantly would've stopped


It wasn't a smart deal for the board but you can't put a statistical spin on something as emotional as what he wanted the money for. Yes, the chances of it going horrible wrong were just less than 20% (11 in 56) but if Noel (or the producers in his ears) keep dragging up bad luck games (for whatever reason), you can't blame him for dealing.

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2011 10:34 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 28/03 Andy

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Simon F wrote:
Would be fascinating to see what deal-eye says at 8-box today. Was probably worth the gamble if you look at the EV of the 5-box offer as only the 1 in 56 chance of the all red round or the 5 in 56 chances of the £250k/£50k/blue or £250k/£35k blue rounds would signficantly reduce the offer but today was a classic case of the player not being able to risk the money offered. It wasn't a great offer but it also wasn't a clearly bad offer (like the £3k at 5-box yesterday)


Yes, Deal Eye will be updated later in the week when I have more time! As you say not a great offer, but factoring in the instability, not completely unwise either. I'm interested to see Helens game after her intriguing story was unfortunately cut short today...!

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Mon Mar 28, 2011 11:16 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 28/03 Andy

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
Location: Oxfordshire
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Definately a game with a lot of emotional weight and i don't think many of us here would begrudge Andy a slightly cautious 8 box deal given his personal circumstances.

Yes, most of us would have gone on one more round (and a few probably further than that) but it really doesn't matter, sometimes Deal is about more than chasing the big money. And this was one of those times.

I found Andy's opening chat, and the way he talked about his daughter throughout the game incredibly moving. I wish him and his family the best.

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