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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2011 6:20 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie
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Actually we need to analyse this more. £26,000 was used so much for the same reasons...in other words Noel is coining this "New Governor" because it's obviously going to be used a HELL of a lot more than £26,000 ever will (with it being a lower amount and therefore able to be used in lower-value games)...we might as well get used to it guys, regardless of the way £26,000 is being overshadowed.

If it was upto me, I'd have coined £16,000 as something else, not the "New Governor"...it took years for £26,000 to get the title of "The Governor", why is £16,000 getting it so quickly?!

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2011 6:34 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie
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What happened to £16,500 as a recurring motif anyway?!?

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Brick

PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2011 7:01 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie
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We get the same amounts popping up in a few games on the trot quite often - £16,500, £7,500 and £21,500 have all been examples of that. Then there's a couple of games where players win a lot less or a lot more, and they fade away!

Didn't see today's game but sounds like Archie made for a good watch. It's a shame he didn't beat the banker but £16,000 was a lot higher than his other offers and maybe he didn't think £35,000 would be on the table twice in a row.

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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2011 8:38 pm    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie

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Big-Davey wrote:
Actually we need to analyse this more.

Okay. Possible answers
1 Noel could just want to coin a new Dond word. You could say why 'governor' for £26k? Somebody must have started to call it that after a run of deals at £26k.
2 The producers could want to save a few 000's on deals and trying to get a value amount into the thinking process when players are contemplating a deal. Why not 16.5k, 17k, 18k?
3 They are running out of ideas and and just need more padding. We rarely hear any of the old catchphrases and dond-speak from the early years. Why isn't Olivia a black widow

Id be interested to see from statsman how the £16k offer stands up to the deal eye.

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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:13 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie
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And with it being lower than £26,000, it's gonna make for even more frustrating deals that go horribly wrong!

Dealing at £16,000 and finding out that a further £84,000 or worse £234,000 could've been his or hers...like we needed this right now! :roll:

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paulyc

PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2011 9:20 pm    Author: paulyc    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie

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My theory on the 16k is that a show like deal prospers on provenance. This has previously been built around the 26k but less and less players are playing to that level, so they've dropped the governor to 16k for this reason. That, or plain and simple budget cuts.


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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2011 10:45 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie

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Just seen the full thing on 4OD - all I can say is thatnk goodness Archie got picked today so he could have a longer-edited show, and not a shortened version over the Cheltenham days! :)

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2011 11:25 pm    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie

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Great game, I had been looking forward to Archie's game for months - and it didn't disappoint! :D I thought it was going to be one of those 'funny-no-money' kind of games at first, but out of nowhere we get a solid finish and a near average win.

I wonder if they chose Archie today because they knew it was likely to be humorous enough to fill the hour-long slot which is absent the rest of the week. I will be interest to see the 45 min show back again, not least to see whether the team were aware of the scheduling change... (which I'm sure they were! :D)

I'll look into the £16k's effectiveness at some point, too. Not sure if this has been picked up on, but same amount won today and same amount on the table as yesterday!

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Mar 14, 2011 11:34 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie
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norwichdonder wrote:
Big-Davey wrote:
Actually we need to analyse this more.

Okay. Possible answers
1 Noel could just want to coin a new Dond word. You could say why 'governor' for £26k? Somebody must have started to call it that after a run of deals at £26k.
2 The producers could want to save a few 000's on deals and trying to get a value amount into the thinking process when players are contemplating a deal. Why not 16.5k, 17k, 18k?
3 They are running out of ideas and and just need more padding. We rarely hear any of the old catchphrases and dond-speak from the early years. Why isn't Olivia a black widow

Id be interested to see from statsman how the £16k offer stands up to the deal eye.


The benchmark figure from Deal-Eye for that point was almost exactly £16k! :roll:

The show is definitely having budget troubles from last I heard, and encouraging lower Deals will - assuming no effect on ratings, and that'll do for an assumption as I don't think you could possibly truly pick out any correlation - reduce the long-run winnings. Notice how Noel isn't quite as antagonistic towards cautious players as he was four years ago..

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:08 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie

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KP wrote:
The benchmark figure from Deal-Eye for that point was almost exactly £16k! :roll:


That was indeed the case yesterday with Debbie's £16k 5-box offer. Today, at 2-box it reverts back to actual FD of the finish, as I feel that's the best analyser at this point - either decision was justifiable today...

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:16 am    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie

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I've just read an article about the Endemol company having financial difficulty. So I guess they are trying to save money where they can. If anyone's interested in the business side of Endemol here's the link to the article - http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2011/ma ... ther-loans

But back to DoND and I'd been looking forward to Archie's game for a while as he was quite a character on the wings and his show didn't disappoint. I was worried that when Archie came running down to the table he might drop his box! An enjoyable show with, thankfully, a good result too. Even if there was a bit more money in the game.


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Simon F

PostPosted: Tue Mar 15, 2011 12:51 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie
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One of those rare all red finishes where you just allow the contestant to make their own personal preference about whether they want to gamble. Neither decision was wrong.

A thoroughly enjoyable game today - shades of Orri with Jefferson's costume (although at 15 games, it's unlikely he will be picked in the next day or 2).

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Tue Mar 15, 2011 11:57 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie

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A very funny, and entertaining show. Archie was great value on the wings and his show didn't dissapoint, and to top it all what a fantastic turnaround in the final round, The £16,000 was a respectable amount to deal though there would have been no shame in playing to the end with £5,000 back up

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thundercat

PostPosted: Thu Mar 17, 2011 9:25 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie

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Good game good character most definitely

However I can't understand the logic in dealing the 2 box offer with a high guarantee when he chased the 10% chance of that finish at 5 box which was much more risky IMO. He had 90% chance at 5 box of a stick or a lower offer, right? Yet he dealt a soporific offer at 2 box with 100% of at least £5,000 and 50% of £35,000.

Would have been an entertaining power 5 win, and if he lost the final gamble still £5,000 well earnt? People take bigger risks with pennies left on the other side.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Mar 17, 2011 11:59 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie
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thundercat wrote:
He had 90% chance at 5 box of a stick or a lower offer, right? Yet he dealt a soporific offer at 2 box with 100% of at least £5,000 and 50% of £35,000.

Would have been an entertaining power 5 win, and if he lost the final gamble still £5,000 well earnt? People take bigger risks with pennies left on the other side.


He no-dealt £3,500 at 5-box. A £35k/blue finish would definitely have been more than that (even in the mean mood the banker is in, would he offer 20% of the average at 2-box) so it was a 60% chance of a lower offer.

EDIT - just seen today's game where 20% of the mean was offered at 2-box but still don't believe the banker would go as low as £3,500 with the £35k in play at 2-box.

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thundercat

PostPosted: Fri Mar 18, 2011 11:08 pm    Author: thundercat    Post subject: Re: 14/03 Archie

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Simon F wrote:
thundercat wrote:
He had 90% chance at 5 box of a stick or a lower offer, right? Yet he dealt a soporific offer at 2 box with 100% of at least £5,000 and 50% of £35,000.

Would have been an entertaining power 5 win, and if he lost the final gamble still £5,000 well earnt? People take bigger risks with pennies left on the other side.


He no-dealt £3,500 at 5-box. A £35k/blue finish would definitely have been more than that (even in the mean mood the banker is in, would he offer 20% of the average at 2-box) so it was a 60% chance of a lower offer.

EDIT - just seen today's game where 20% of the mean was offered at 2-box but still don't believe the banker would go as low as £3,500 with the £35k in play at 2-box.


Indeed, I was using £7,500 in my calculations for some reason, which incidentally would have been about 95% of the mean at 5 box! My point still remains, however, as the 5 box gamble was almost certainly more risky than going to the end at 2 box.

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