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Skyline

PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2011 8:16 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: 10/03 Ellen
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You're about 8 times more likely to win the lottery then...

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Simon F

PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2011 10:49 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 10/03 Ellen
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BankerSpanker wrote:
The odds of it coming to the table 6 times in a row is 1 in (22^6) = 1 in 113,379,904! :shock:
That would be quite some feat if that happened. If only it was the £250K...


You need to reduce that by a factor of 22 unless you are talking about the £50 specifically.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2011 12:13 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 10/03 Ellen

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Whether the odds be 1 in 22 or 1 in 5 million there's no denying that it's spooky seeing the £50 on the table for the 5th day in a row, especially given the emphasis the Banker placed on it.

Plenty of humour to be found in todays game, Ellen was a great sport. Enjoyed that a lot

Technically Ellen left the game one round too late but at least she avoided a complete crash

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KP

PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2011 2:23 am    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 10/03 Ellen
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If this run isn't over, and StatsMan hints that it isn't, you have to wonder whether Endemol considered "fixing" the game so £50 wasn't on the table, in order to make the show not look fixed. Does that even make sense?

Anyway, a game that could have been a huge OPW if the player had caused the Banker to be inclined to go big at eight-box, but he went far too low, got lucky, and then a close five-box call went the right way.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2011 2:32 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 10/03 Ellen
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I was trying to work out the probability that over the course of the 1,559 games so far, a box came to the table in 5 consecutive games but Mister Al beat me to it elsewhere so I'll just quote his calculations

Quote:
P(the same amount being brought to the table in every one of five specific games of Deal or No Deal) ≈ 4.27 × 10-6.

P(the same amount being brought to the table in any five consecutive games of Deal or No Deal over the course of nearly six years worth of programmes) ≈ 0.006 - About the same as the chance of taking out the top three from 11-box to 8-box



So not quite as unlikely as first seems in the grand context of the show's history.

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paulyc

PostPosted: Fri Mar 11, 2011 4:56 pm    Author: paulyc    Post subject: Re: 10/03 Ellen

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Right thats me got tonight's numbers for tonights euro millions: the last 5 game boxes, just need one more. With odds like that who can go wrong? I'll be watching tonight's game with baited breath. :smt023


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