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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 5:57 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick
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Chalk this one down to the Banker calling back...I'm sure Nick would've stopped at 2-box if that didn't happen...a frustrating way to start the week

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hevelius

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 5:58 pm    Author: hevelius    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick

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:blueponder STILL NO MALE QUARTER MILLIONAIRE!!!

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matthew17

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 5:59 pm    Author: matthew17    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick
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I would've dealt at 21k as well tbh.

Well done to Nick and enjoy the holiday :-D

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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 6:01 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick
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hevelius wrote:
STILL NO MALE QUARTER MILLIONAIRE!!!


Noel was right, we are cowards...

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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 6:16 pm    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick

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killersbee wrote:
hevelius wrote:
STILL NO MALE QUARTER MILLIONAIRE!!!


Noel was right, we are cowards...

LOL. thats a bit rich from Noel when he was calling him out earlier in game - when he only had the 75k and 250k.
It wouldn't have been an easy call to win zero or 77k or 250k. I think he would have dealt rather than push his luck, hence the long wait before we see another 250k'onaire. Still, when you buy a 250k scratchcard you have more chance of winning the lottery, so in those terms a 1 in 3 chance of going home with 250k would be fair to most gamblers.

A good game all in,but the early 'low' offers stopped there being much continuity to the build up to the 21k.

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Mark

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 6:19 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick

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The reason why he probably dealt was of that golden envelope. Shame a Bankers Gamble wasn't offered.


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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 6:21 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick
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Maybe so, but what a feeble attempt by The Banker and sadly Nick fell for it

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Mark

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 6:22 pm    Author: Mark    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick

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He was playing mind games which clearly he didn't see. However for me, I spotted it straight away.


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Brick

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 6:24 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick
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Is that the first six-figure amount to come to the table since Dale's game?

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James1978

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 6:51 pm    Author: James1978    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick

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Yeah, yeah, whatever, I'm sure Mark and killersbee live in the lap of luxury and can always afford to gamble £21,000 on a one box game. :roll:

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KP

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 6:51 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick
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Red and blue days for diets. I've heard more stupid ideas than that. No swap issues today, he's got the box he'd have freely chosen anyway... and how's that for a start, the 1p monkey off his back already. The round goes down, then back up, and all told, that's average. Which cannot be said about a five-figure opening offer - the Banker is either replaying yesterday's tactic or is convinced Nick is an aggressive player. Or both. Possibly both.

Big hole in the reds, but the bottom right corner remains intact, and the offer still goes up. I would not think less of anyone who took this, you know, but it is no shock that Nick doesn't.

There goes one big number... but two blues go with it, and we have a really interesting board at halfway. Five blues, three oranges, £10k, £75k, £250k. Oh that's interesting, he claimed he'd turn down a £20k offer on blue/£75k... ah there we go, offer crashes down to make sure we don't get an 11-box Deal, and the strategy is now clearly to make him chase the money on a one-box game. Which is apparently a good TV strategy, but is an awful strategy if the aim is to minimise winnings.

There goes the backup... but two blues go with it again! Crikey, the £1k-£10k block remains intact, with the £250k the only other red. How do you play this as the Banker? By going £1k above the highest backup, and this is where the early high offers come back to haunt him - how many players would take that if the OPW was on, but would play on given that they've had a higher second offer? More than a few, I'd fancy. You know Noel is nervous when he throws out the anti-Wakey catchphrase "money fever". You know, that thing he indirectly encourages players to be infected by more often than not. Anyway, he's going to chase this, and that's not a bad move given that he can reasonably expect generosity at five-box for keeping £250k, and a four-figure bailout if he loses it. I'd probably be gone though.

Did Noel really use an equivalent of the "squander" routine rejigged for a No Deal? I have been saying for years that if he really must do guilt trips for Deals, he needs to do something like this after a big No Deal.

There's the £3k, so no Laura rerun here... £10k may be the second-highest but rarely has that been so acceptable before the squashdown... the right 250 goes! Ordinarily, a £250k/two oranges/two blues board might bring the £18k norwichdonder suggests. We might be the other side of The Rock this time. And we are. Now I'm gone, unless I get a £250k/blue guarantee of about £90k. Oh hello, he's throwing in the leftovers from Love Week. Did the producers know this was going out on the first day of the new product placement legislation? Presumably they will have done... was there the "P" logo at the top of the show?

And he's gone. You can't really argue with that - £21k with a 40% chance of what might be £75k or more, vs a 60% chance of a crash (albeit possibly to orange territory), is a worse gamble than £20k on a £250/£75k coinflip in my book. I'd be unsure on the latter, but not unsure on the former. No hypocrisy for me.

Now, does Noel flip-reverse in a manner even more annoying than Blazin' Squad after the proveout takes out the oranges but not the jackpot? Apparently yes. And blue/£250k produces a hypothetical... £75k. It may look high, but confirms that the gamble was at best comparable to the one he said he'd make in the previous game. Better to have regrets and £21k than regrets and a blue. Hopefully (given that at least one contestant has won a holiday then not been able to take it) he has both gone to Cuba and enjoyed it.

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Big-Davey

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 6:57 pm    Author: Big-Davey    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick
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Erm excuse me KB, anyone here who say they'd have declined £75,000 at the end I'd quote KP and say you'd DESERVE to win 10p! Everyone else would have been out! :P

So I chalk it down as another unavoidable OBW! Although I do agree he probably would have played on had the holiday not been involved; notice Nick knew straightaway what that envelope was (as did the rest of us, if we're all honest!), and that was a huge hint that he wanted the holiday so fair does. That said, £21,000 on an all-or-nothing 5-box (given only the £250,000 was bigger, mind)

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killersbee

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 8:17 pm    Author: killersbee    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick
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The only reason is that £75,000 would never be offered in live-play, we know what the Banker is like...

And James, I do not live in luxury, I'm not that rich...yet :P

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h2005

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 9:34 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick
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KP wrote:
Did Noel really use an equivalent of the "squander" routine rejigged for a No Deal? I have been saying for years that if he really must do guilt trips for Deals, he needs to do something like this after a big No Deal.

Well, I missed the bit when Nick said "no deal", and only saw Noel's blurbs into the break and into the next part of the show. Judging from how he was acting, I assumed Nick had dealt, but got confused by some things that were said. I checked the commentary and was surprised to find out he'd no dealt!

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Simon F

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 9:54 pm    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick
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Again, we don't know whether Nick would have taken the £21k anyway without the offer of the holiday (given the value of it is probably £1k at most), it doesn't make much financial difference.

Going back to the discussion from yesterday's , the low reds at 8-box made me think that it was worth gambling at 8-box - replace those low reds with blues and it's probably a deal at 8-box.

Again, I wish Noel would at least ask if people would have dealt on a £250k/blue finish before pulling the "first male-QM winner" speech. It would have been ironic had Nicks been the first 1p and £250k winners though.

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rico7

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 10:10 pm    Author: rico7    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick
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Mark wrote:
The reason why he probably dealt was of that golden envelope. Shame a Bankers Gamble wasn't offered.


Yes I was actually hoping for a 10p £250,000 finish after the 5 box deal because I thought there was a possibility of a banker's gamble which could well have resulted in our first male quarter millionaire. £21,000 (+ golden enevelope) was a generous offer though given that many similar boards have seen much lower.


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Skyline

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 11:15 pm    Author: Skyline    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick
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Mark wrote:
OH DEAR... should have been a LOT more brave.


Someone has got to put that in the language filter. :P

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Mon Feb 28, 2011 11:56 pm    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick

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I thought that was a great start to the week. Some interesting symmetry with the Cuba Holiday rearing it's head once again and some clever tactics from the Banker.

Hard to tell if Nick was bluffing about going all the way from the very start or if he just accepted the vulnerability of his board at five box, certainly that £21k was hard to turn down with or without the holiday on top. I would have undoubtedly taken it myself.

And even if he had gone on one more round i seriously doubt he would have gone all the way on that final two? Seriously who in their right mind would gamble £75k on a 10p/ £250k coin flip? I really don't see how it could possibly be worth it

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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Tue Mar 01, 2011 12:17 am    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick

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It still does amuse me how Noel manically shouts at anyone who dares to clap a low number once the player has dealt. :smt105


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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Tue Mar 01, 2011 12:22 am    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 28/02 Nick

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Moxx of Balhoom wrote:
And even if he had gone on one more round i seriously doubt he would have gone all the way on that final two? Seriously who in their right mind would gamble £75k on a 10p/ £250k coin flip? I really don't see how it could possibly be worth it

Yes its easy with the benefit of hindsight, but you are right. I would just say his chance of winning 250k at the pound table was far better odds than most of us will get in our life. Its a tough call to risk going home with zero, but if the 10p was instead at least 5k I would gamble it.

As someone mentioned earlier I think thats only the 3rd power 5 at the table this year - Dale 100k(won), Peter(75k not won) Nick(250k not won).

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