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Michael DeVere

PostPosted: Wed Feb 09, 2011 11:32 pm    Author: Michael DeVere    Post subject: Re: 09/02 Stu

Joined: Fri Jul 14, 2006 6:46 pm
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h2005 wrote:
Noel sits on the lap of a female pilgrim as he explains the situation of the board (I expect Noel's wife is filing a divorce now :lol:)


Noel does seem rather comfortable :smt047

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StatsMan

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 12:11 am    Author: StatsMan    Post subject: Re: 09/02 Stu

Joined: Wed Jul 04, 2007 11:55 pm
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Ok, a visual summary of today's game, which once again makes interesting reading. What I quite like about this is that it's an impartial calculation based partly on maths (secret formula! :D ), but it's amazing how often I find myself agreeing with it - and, more astonishingly, how close it has been to the banker's actual offers in recent days...

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I think I'd settle for that money ladder, and once again the banker follows my calculator advice to avert further danger, but get spanked once again! He's not doing a lot wrong lately, just the players are getting a bit lucky hitting the 27% (2 of top 3) quite frequently. Oh, and the banker's gamble was just not worth the risk for me.

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Moxx of Balhoom

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 12:26 am    Author: Moxx of Balhoom    Post subject: Re: 09/02 Stu

Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2008 10:21 am
Location: Oxfordshire
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Mark wrote:
Well he did thought he would win £75k. If it was his game yesterday, he would have done. Same goes for today.

Should have been a lot more brave, but it's a lot to risk.

Someone should have reminded him what he had yesterday, then more chance he may have gone for it.


Would that have made him more inclined to go for it though? Surely he'd consider it less likely that he'd have the same amount two games in a row. :ponder: Anyway yesterday's game is irrelevant it's random selcetion after all

Think Stu made the right decision personally. Like Dolly yesterday he had a board that looked stronger than it was and £25k is a respectable amount to walk away with. That Banker's gamble was far too risky IMO, triple your money or go away with a pitance. No thanks

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Brick

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 1:04 pm    Author: Brick    Post subject: Re: 09/02 Stu
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Joined: Sat Dec 01, 2007 10:37 pm
Location: Essex
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Simon F wrote:
Sensible deal at 8-box. 5-box offer was a bit inflated (would have been closer to £10k in live play) and the 2-box offer was spooky.

It's exactly a year to the day that Justin accepted the BG on the exact same finish (albeit for £6,500 less than Stu had today) and also had the £75k in his box (although that was in Love Week which starts a week later this year)


Now that IS spooky! :) I imagine even Justin would have been less willing to accept the gamble today though.

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paulyc

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 2:57 pm    Author: paulyc    Post subject: Re: 09/02 Stu

Joined: Wed Oct 21, 2009 10:28 pm
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I was wondering if perhaps his wife was actually refering to the hypothetical swap, rather than the gamble? They do do it at the end of some games and maybe she didnt mean gamble at all and the banker just put a spin on it.


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Lewismail

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 3:30 pm    Author: Lewismail    Post subject: Re: 09/02 Stu

Joined: Tue Feb 08, 2011 3:15 pm
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I found this game a bit boring, nodded off, tried to catch up on +1, but Stu forced me to nod off again. He choose the right time to deal though, I remember something about a caravan, I think £25,000 will buy him a nice caravan.


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h2005

PostPosted: Thu Feb 10, 2011 3:31 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 09/02 Stu
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Joined: Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:13 pm
Location: Chelmsford, Essex
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paulyc wrote:
I was wondering if perhaps his wife was actually refering to the hypothetical swap, rather than the gamble? They do do it at the end of some games and maybe she didnt mean gamble at all and the banker just put a spin on it.

I thought the same. I don't know where the banker got the idea about the gamble from, unless he heard something that the viewers didn't.

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Simon F

PostPosted: Fri Feb 11, 2011 1:41 am    Author: Simon F    Post subject: Re: 09/02 Stu
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Joined: Sat Jan 21, 2006 11:12 pm
Location: Leeds
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Brick wrote:
Simon F wrote:
Sensible deal at 8-box. 5-box offer was a bit inflated (would have been closer to £10k in live play) and the 2-box offer was spooky.

It's exactly a year to the day that Justin accepted the BG on the exact same finish (albeit for £6,500 less than Stu had today) and also had the £75k in his box (although that was in Love Week which starts a week later this year)


Now that IS spooky! :) I imagine even Justin would have been less willing to accept the gamble today though.


Mathematically, it's not that spooky.

If we assume there are 48 weeks of episodes a year then there are 5 episodes a week that have a corresponding episode on the same date the year before. There are 462 combinations of final box on the table and box on the wings, so the odds of none of the dates having the same combination is (461/462)^240 = 59.5%(approx0 and consequently 40.5% of a shared final 2 happening.

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