No lucky hats any more?

Have to admit, I knew she'd take that £24k when I looked at the clock just beforehand...

The show may be longer, but you can still predict deals going by how much time there is left.

Obviously, yesterday was an exception...




Once again Noel demonstrates his love of playing around with the offers.

I'm probably being a bit hard on him here, but I bet if someone came up to him and said "I wish you wouldn't do that, I don't find it entertaining at all" he'd say something to that person along the lines of "bu***r off"...

Well put and thats something I overlooked in the heat of the moment earlier. You have to say Noel cries out for a 250k win, then uses this fake offer trick (which I'm sure I've seen him use before) to talk up a deal. As you said, if he'd taken the approach of coming straight out with 24k and *then* talking up the 100k and 250k who knows if she would have dealt.

I wonder if players in her situation have more regrets about missing out on the big money than those who go home with a blue? Id probably mull it over regularly!

Personally i don't blame Jenna at all for taking the £24,000 given that she had as much chance of winning £1 as she did the £250,000. People talk about the mean based on the total value of the boxes in play but at 5 box the mean can also be seen as the 'pivot' or middle amount on the board, in this case £20k and the truth is that you have as much chance of taking out the two boxes above the mean as the two below.

Yes there was plenty of incentive to go on but I see no shame in calling it a day at that point either. Maybe i just have a more pragmatic approach to the game than most people.

...or Eyeballs, Witches Noses or Handcuffs! (I kid you not, that's what the warm-up guy found in the cupboards once! There used to be some furniture polish in there as well, if I recall correctly... )

Anyway, the day after the shameful promotion of gambling comes a game with the perfect finish which is hardly going to dampen the advertisement. It was weird that Noel quoted the average at 8-box but not 5-box where the offer was much worse in relation to it, and this 'teasing-up' of the offer often makes it appear more generous to the unmathematical contestants than it actually is, it encourages a deal more than a no deal generally I think.

Frustrating as a jackpot win was most certainly attainable today.

Unbelievably poor deal for me, not quite in Richard territory but poor just the same. As soon as Noel said, how do you feel about £20k you knew that wasn't the offer.

What a shame 'cocky' Scott didn't have those boxes, kind of makes me think they know full well who is highly likely to plsybto the end and who is not as the wussies always seem to have big numbers and the brave players tiddlers, the odd exception but pattern definitely emerging!

Why she dealt at £24k, only she knows - a poor offer at that point with what was left but C4 saved some bunce so well
Played them I guess. Personally I had expected £26k to be offered bit even that would have been ridiculously low but she was never going to go on after she ummed and ared over 14k.

To be honest, it shouldn't be Noel's job to point out the mathematical generosity of an offer ( or at least if he is going to do it, it should be something done permanently). If there's a half-decent mathematician on the wings, fair enough.

Absolutely agreed. It's not Noel's job, and he didn't even cover the intentions for doing that job. It was a naked attempt to force the player on, and you almost wonder if the trick at five-box was out of a sudden regret that this had happened...

Two games with £44k given away and almost the entire fandom is upset at both games. That's a spectacularly incompetent way to make a daytime game show that's meant to be facing budget cuts, frankly.

As someone who has done an itinerary of that cupboard, I can confirm it has the following (as of my show, first aired 23rd March 2009):

• Furniture polish
• Football referee cards
• Witch's nose
• Lucky slippers
• Lucky hat
• Calculator
• Name badge reading "GEOFF THE BANKER" (or something like that)
• 4 gangway electrical extension socket
• Some other wires
• Dust
• Tissues

She was a lovely girl but it is INCREDIBLY irritating when someone is given a "once-in-a-lifetime" opportunity and spurns it.

The Mum even said a "one-off" chance to get £14,000 ! .... ignoring that the whole experience is a one-off chance to completely change your life!

Why do soooo many cautious players get great hands and really brave players get bad luck?

The annoying thing is that so many contestants have no idea whatsoever of value or odds or probability. Even, for example, when you have 4 boxes left you still have only a "1-in-6" chance of pulling out both the largest two so have a "5-in-6" chance or 83% chance of retaining either or both the Big 2 boxes.

You know what, Tony? You're right, and so is she. Weird, eh? Basically, each game is a one-off opportunity to win a lot of money, either from the box contents or the sale thereof. Each offer has the potential to be the only chance to win that much, yet playing on offers potentially brings further rewards. The crucial thing here is that the game being a one-off is actually a validation for risk-aversion as one is unable to recoup losses by having another go, as one might on a fruit machine...

You are right that players tend to be naive about probability, but even that has sometimes caused naive, questionable gambles...

I agree. Out of interest, I would like to ask, perhaps a rather personal question I know, but those of you that vilify cautious deals - are you what might be considered "well-off"?