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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:47 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey
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norwichdonder wrote:
If it was double or half she might gamble, but come on!


Nah, he'll mysteriously phone back to improve the odds to turn it into an EV+ gamble. Then repeat until it's one she takes.

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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:50 pm    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey

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odds are better now with 6 boxes.. Can statsman work out the odds as my maths is a bit rusty.

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RMF1254

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:50 pm    Author: RMF1254    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey
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Switched back on out of curiosity and I see there's little green and blue boxes as well...

The banker really wants her to gamble, doesn't he? B*****d. :x

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wkd

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:50 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey

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What a waste of time this is. People reject bankers gambles where they are expected to risk ten grand to win an additional 65K. She's hardly going to take this after a fairly conservative deal is she?


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Oni-91

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:50 pm    Author: Oni-91    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey
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Double or Double or Double or Nothing?

NO. That is NOT a good thing to do.

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:50 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey
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Tracey's husband says he doesn't need to tell her what to do. Noel says no other player has ever had this opportunity before, and it's a MASSIVE opportunity, but it is 50/50.

The banker rings back and says he has another surprise. Noel goes under the table again and gets out 2 small green boxes! As with the orange boxes, one of them has DOUBLE and one has NOTHING. He says Tracey can open 1 box from the orange pair and 1 from the green pair, and she only has to find 1 DOUBLE to double her money.

Tracey says it's so tempting as she's thinking about the £20,000 and she could give up her cleaning jobs. Her husband says she could still go away with nothing, and Phoenix speaks up to agree with him. Noel asks who would take this gamble and just under half would.

Noel's about to ask the question when the banker phones up. Noel goes under the table and takes out 2 more boxes which are blue. Again, one of them has DOUBLE and one has NOTHING. Tracey now has to pick a box from each pair and she only has to find DOUBLE once.

Tracey's husband says she should go for it if she wants. She asks the audience and there's a mixture of responses!

Tracey says

DEAL

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wkd

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:52 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey

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Well its now an appealing gamble but really.......


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Oni-91

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:53 pm    Author: Oni-91    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey
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norwichdonder wrote:
odds are better now with 6 boxes.. Can statsman work out the odds as my maths is a bit rusty.
Odds of nothing in a pair is half. So odds of nothing in all three is one eighth. So 87.5% chance of winning. I think.

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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:54 pm    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey

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wow. I think she should have picked the same number on all boxes?

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:54 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey
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Exactly as I called it. I almost want it to be nothing to embarrass them.

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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:54 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey
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Tracey starts with the BLUE boxes.

She chooses Blue Box 2 which has NOTHING. Blue Box 1 had DOUBLE.

Tracey now does the GREEN boxes.

She chooses Green Box 1 which has NOTHING. Green Box 2 had DOUBLE.

Tracey now does the ORANGE boxes.

She chooses Orange Box 1 which has DOUBLE. :D

Tracey's winnings double to £20,000

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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:55 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey
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Well that was convenient for it to happen third...

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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h2005

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:55 pm    Author: h2005    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey
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Orange Box 2 had NOTHING.

Tracey says she's now going to give up her early morning cleaning job.

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wkd

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:56 pm    Author: wkd    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey

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Oni-91 wrote:
norwichdonder wrote:
odds are better now with 6 boxes.. Can statsman work out the odds as my maths is a bit rusty.
Odds of nothing in a pair is half. So odds of nothing in all three is one eighth. So 87.5% chance of winning. I think.


Think you're right. Odds of banker winning three even money gambles are 7/1. Accordingly Tracey is odds on 1/7 to land the money.


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richie4eva1

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:56 pm    Author: richie4eva1    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey
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Sorry, chaps, I don't agree with that ending

Just TOO convenient that the Double was going to be in that last box to force the feel good ending

Bet someone like Grace or Jim wishes they had that kind of get out clause in their game

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norwichdonder

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:58 pm    Author: norwichdonder    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey

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KP wrote:
Well that was convenient for it to happen third...

oh you and your conspiracy theories -she would win an oscar if that was true. :laughing It would have been a really downer though if she had lost the lot considering the story.

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RMF1254

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 5:59 pm    Author: RMF1254    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey
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I'm sorry to say this... but even though she doubled her money I just did not like that twist.

Yes, it was something new but there was so much about it that was just plain wrong. Especially the Banker making it clear as crystal that he wanted her to gamble... a bit childish if you ask me.

Also it felt horribly predictable that she'd find two nothings before she found the double...

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matt26

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 6:01 pm    Author: matt26    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey

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If she'd found the nothing in that final box it would've been in the top 10 most painful games ever... Still, it did feel like she was coerced into that considerably. Pretty much no one's going to take that with a 1 in 2 chance, but when it's a 7 in 8 chance it does feel a bit like you have to go along with it...

Also, has any one noticed the surprisingly high proportion of finishes this season involving 1p and something else, with the something else almost always being in the player's box?


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KP

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 6:02 pm    Author: KP    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey
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The thing with DoND doing so many twists is that each one has less positive power and more negative power. This could have been a tipping point for more people.

I've said it before and I'll say it yet again, it is not enough for this game to be fair, it must be seen to be fair.

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"Why regret what could not be?" (A Heart Full of Love, from Les Misérables)
I introduced utility theory to the forums. Blame me.
In your choices, beware of words leading you astray. Think in a balanced way about potential gains and losses.


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travis P

PostPosted: Tue Jan 18, 2011 6:02 pm    Author: travis P    Post subject: Re: 18/01 Tracey

Joined: Sun Feb 05, 2006 3:40 pm
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LOL at Noel saying "this is and it has always been the honest game on television" then couldn't open the final box. :smt046

I hear new music when the boxes were being opened. Looks like Double of Nothing is here to stay. So we now had Second Chance (Banker's Gamble) and Double or Nothing but when are we going to have Superbox??? ;)


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